Advances in Decision Analysis: From

Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.

List of Contributors	p. ix
Preface	p. xi
Introduction	p. 1
History and Foundations of Decision Analysis
The Emergence of Decision Analysis	p. 13
The Foundations of Decision Analysis Revisited	p. 32
Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved	p. 57
Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards to Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research	p. 71
Structuring Decision Problems
Defining a Decision Analytic Structure	p. 81
Developing Objectives and Attributes	p. 104
Probabilities and Bayes Nets
Eliciting Probabilities from Experts	p. 129
Aggregating Probability Distributions	p. 154
Model Building with Belief Networks and Influence Diagrams	p. 177
A Bayesian Approach to Learning Causal Networks	p. 202
Utilities
Utility and Risk Preferences	p. 221
Practical Value Models	p. 232
Extensions of the Subjective Expected Utility Model	p. 253
Risk Analysis
Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Engineered Systems	p. 279
The Engineering Risk-Analysis Method and Some Applications	p. 302
Health Risk Analysis for Risk-Management Decision-Making	p. 325
Decision Analysis in a Behavioral and Organizational Context
What Have We Learned from Our Mistakes?	p. 351
Decision Conferencing	p. 375
Resource Allocation Decisions	p. 400
From Decision Analysis to the Decision Organization	p. 419
Building Decision Competency in Organizations	p. 451
Negotiation Analysis: Between Decisions and Games	p. 469
Applications of Decision Analysis
The Adoption of Multiattribute Utility Theory for the Evaluation of Plutonium Disposition Options in the United States and Russia	p. 489
Choosing a Tritium Supply Technology for Nuclear Weapons: Reflections on a Controversial Decision Analysis	p. 514
Applications of Decision Analysis to the Military Systems Acquisition Process	p. 539
Balancing Environmental and Operational Objectives in Nuclear Refueling Strategies	p. 564
Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications	p. 582
Index	p. 611
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Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications

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