Assessing Financial Vulnerability

, by Goldstein, Morris; Kaminsky, Graciela Laura; Reinhart, Carmen M.

Note: Supplemental materials are not guaranteed with Rental or Used book purchases.

ISBN: 9780881322378 | 0881322377
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 6/1/2000

Assessing Financial Vulnerability > ISBN13: 9780881322378

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Morris Goldstein is the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Institute Graciela L. Kaminsky, visiting fellow, is a professor of economics and international relations at George Washington University Carmen M. Reinhart, visiting fellow, is a professor at the University of Maryland in the School of Public Affairs and the Department of Economics

Preface

Acknowledgments

Introduction

(10)

Organization of the book

(2)

Methodology

(22)

General Guidelines

(7)

Putting the Signals Approach to Work

(15)

Empirical Results

(12)

The Monthly Indicators: Robustness Check

(5)

The Annual Indicators: What Works?

(2)

Do the Indicators Flash Early Enough?

(2)

Microeconomic Indicators: Selective Evidence

(3)

Rating the Rating Agencies

(10)

Do Sovereign Credit Ratings Predict Crises?

(4)

Why Do Credit Ratings Fail to Anticipate Crises?

(3)

Do Financial Markets Anticipate Crises?

(3)

An Assessment of Vulnerability: Out-of-Sample Results

(18)

Vulnerability and Signals

(8)

A Composite Indicator and Crises Probabilities

(9)

Contagion

(12)

Defining Contagion

(1)

Theories of Contagion and Their Implications

(1)

Empirical Studies

(1)

Trade and Financial Clusters and a Composite Contagion Index

(2)

What the Index Reveals about Three Recent Crisis Episodes

(6)

The Aftermath of Crises

(10)

The Recovery Process

(4)

Some Caveats

(6)

Summary of Results and Concluding Remarks

(16)

Summary of Findings

(14)

Would the Publication of the Indicators Erode Their Early Warning Role?

109

(1)

Do the Better Performing Indicators Carry Policy Implications?

110

(1)

Appendix A: Data and Definitions

111

(4)

References

115

(6)

Index

121

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Assessing Financial Vulnerability

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials