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"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager’s toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today’s leading practitioners in the field." —Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." —David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning—the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." —David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." —Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." —George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania | Part I INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO LEARNING |
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1 | (54) |
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Chapter 1 What Is Scenario Learning? |
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3 | (19) |
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Chapter 2 Integrating Strategy and Scenarios |
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22 | (17) |
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Chapter 3 Using Scenarios to Identify, Analyze, and Manage Uncertainty |
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39 | (16) |
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| Part II BASIC APPROACHES TO CONSTRUCTING SCENARIOS |
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55 | (132) |
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Chapter 4 Plotting Your Scenarios |
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57 | (24) |
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Chapter 5 Mental Maps of the Future: An Intuitive Logics Approach to Scenarios |
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81 | (28) |
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Chapter 6 Scenario Planning: Mapping the Paths to the Desired Future |
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109 | (13) |
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Chapter 7 Testing Your Strategies in Scenarios |
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122 | (18) |
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Chapter 8 Dynamic Scenarios: Systems Thinking Meets Scenario Planning |
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140 | (17) |
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Chapter 9 Simulation Models: A Tool for Rigorous Scenario Analysis |
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157 | (18) |
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Chapter 10 Scenarios for Global Investment Strategy for the New Century |
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175 | (12) |
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| Part III SCENARIO APPLICATION IN DIVERSE CONTEXTS |
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187 | (146) |
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Chapter 11 Industry Scenarios |
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189 | (34) |
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Chapter 12 Competitor Scenarios: Projecting a Rival's Marketplace Strategy |
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223 | (23) |
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Chapter 13 Scenario-Based Planning for Technology Investments |
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246 | (18) |
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Chapter 14 Customer-Driven Scenario Planning |
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264 | (21) |
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Chapter 15 Futuring Consumer Products: An Illustrative Example of Scenario Analysis |
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285 | (11) |
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Chapter 16 The Role of Economic Scenarios |
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296 | (12) |
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Chapter 17 How Scenarios Enrich Public Policy Decisions |
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308 | (17) |
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Chapter 18 Imagining South Africa's Future: How Scenarios Helped Discover Common Ground |
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325 | (8) |
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| Part IV MANAGING THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT FOR SCENARIO LEARNING |
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333 | (100) |
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Chapter 19 Articulating the Business Idea: The Key to Relevant Scenarios |
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335 | (17) |
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Chapter 20 The Effective Implementation of Scenario Planning: Changing the Corporate Culture |
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352 | (17) |
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Chapter 21 The Cross-Scenario Planning Process |
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369 | (15) |
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Chapter 22 How Information Technology Helps Scenarios Advance from Consensus to Decisiveness |
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384 | (18) |
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Chapter 23 Introducing Scenarios to the Corporation: Alternatron 2010 at UNICOM |
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402 | (12) |
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Chapter 24 Writing an Annual Report for Your Organization's Future |
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414 | (8) |
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Chapter 25 Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning |
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422 | (11) |
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| Notes |
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433 | (4) |
| About the Authors |
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437 | (4) |
| Index |
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441 | |
LIAM FAHEY, PhD, a consultant to a number of leading North American and European firms, is an adjunct professor of management at Babson College and a visiting professor of strategic management at Cranfield School of Management in the United Kingdom. Dr. Fahey has authored or edited six books on management, most recently The Portable MBA in Strategy (Wiley), with Robert M. Randall. ROBERT M. RANDALL heads a San Francisco-based publishing business that operates management magazines; he writes management articles, books, white papers, and brochures. He and Liam Fahey are collaborating on their third book, Strategic Management Tools (Wiley).
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