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Exchange Rate Policy for Mercosur: Lessons from the European Union

Author(s): Marengo, Silvia
ISBN10: 3631327919
ISBN13: 9783631327913
Cover: Paperback
 
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Table of Contents
LIST OF TABLES
XIII(2)
LIST OF FIGURES
XV(1)
LIST OF CHARTS
XVI
1 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW
1(4)
2 CHAPTER 2: A THEORETICAL APPROACH
5(67)
2.1 Introduction
5(5)
2.2 The Mundell-Fleming Model
10(16)
2.2.1 Flexible Exchange Rate
12(1)
The Model
12(1)
The Goods Market
12(1)
The Money Market
13(1)
Interest Parity Condition
14(1)
Comparative Statics
14(1)
Fiscal Shock
15(1)
Monetary Shock
16(1)
2.2.2 Fixed Exchange Rate
17(1)
The Goods Market
17(1)
The Money Market
17(2)
Fiscal Shock
19(1)
Monetary Shock
20(1)
Distribution of Money Supply Across Countries
20(1)
Effect of the Monetary Policy on Output and Interest Rates
21(1)
2.2.3 Concluding Remarks
22(4)
2.3 Dynamic Effects: The Dombusch Model
26(20)
2.3.1 Flexible Exchange Rates
26(1)
The Model
26(1)
The Goods Market
26(2)
The Money Market
28(1)
Uncovered Interest Parity Condition
29(1)
Monetary and Fiscal Shocks
29(1)
The Long Run Comparative Statics
29(1)
Monetary Shock
30(1)
Fiscal Shock
31(1)
Dynamic Analysis
31(1)
Monetary Shock
32(1)
Fiscal shock
32(1)
2.3.2 Fixed Exchange Rates
33(1)
The Model
33(1)
The Goods market
33(1)
The Money Market
33(2)
Fisher Condition
35(1)
Uncovered Interest Parity
35(1)
Solving the Model
36(1)
Comparative Statics
36(1)
The Long Run Effect
36(1)
Monetary Shock
36(1)
Distribution of Money Supply across the Countries
37(1)
Short Run Adjustment
38(1)
Fiscal Shock
39(1)
Short Run Adjustment
39(1)
2.3.3 Concluding Remarks
40(6)
2.4 The N-1 Problem in a Fixed Exchange Rate System
46(6)
2.4.1 The asymmetric or Hegemonic Solution
47(1)
2.4.2 Symmetric or Cooperative Solution
48(1)
Intervention Rules
48(1)
2.4.3 Concluding Remarks
49(3)
2.5 Time Inconsistency and Credibility Problem
52(15)
2.5.1 Introduction
52(1)
2.5.2 Social Losses under Discretionary Policy as Commitment
53(1)
2.5.3 The Model
54(5)
2.5.4 Rules versus Discretion and the Presence of Stochastic Shocks
59(3)
2.5.5 Multiple Period Horizon
62(1)
2.5.6 Dealing with the Time Inconsistency Problem
63(2)
2.5.7 Concluding Remarks
65(2)
2.6 Summary and Conclusions
67(3)
Appendix
70(2)
3. CHAPTER 3: LESSONS FROM THE EUROPEAN EXPERIENCE: THE EMS AS AN INSTRUMENT TO ACHIEVE PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY
72(68)
3.1 Introduction
72(1)
3.2 Review of the European Exchange Rate Agreements
73(14)
The Origins
73(3)
The EMS: the Quest for Stability
76(1)
The Institutional Arrangements
77(2)
The Turbulent EMS: 1979-1987
79(1)
The EMS without Realignments 1987-1992
80(4)
1992 The Crisis
84(1)
Some Explanations of the Crisis of 1992
85(2)
3.3 Effect of the EMS on Price Stability
87(15)
Credibility and Inertia Inflation
87(1)
Review of the Empirical Literature
87(2)
Stylized Facts
89(7)
The Unemployment-Inflation Trade--Off
96(6)
3.4 The Effect of the EMS on the Dynamic Exchange Rate
102(36)
Responses to Nominal and Real Shocks: An Econometric Analysis
102(1)
Stylized Facts
103(1)
Variability of Nominal and Real Exchange Rates
104(4)
3.4.1 Model Specification Analysis
108(1)
Univariate and Bivariate Analysis
108(1)
Unit Root Tests
108(2)
Test for Cointegration
110(1)
Granger Causality Test
111(1)
3.4.2 VAR Analysis
112(1)
The Methodology
112(3)
Empirical Results
115(1)
Impulse Response Analysis
115(2)
Snake 1973.03-1979.03
117(1)
Hard EMS 1987.03-1992.09
117(1)
EMS Wide Bands 1993.07-1994.04
118(1)
Forecast Error Variance Decomposition
118(1)
Concluding Remarks
119(1)
Summary and Conclusions
120(18)
Appendix 3.1
138(1)
Appendix 3.2
139(1)
4. CHAPTER 4: THE LATIN AMERICAN EXPERIENCE
140(58)
4.1 Introduction
140(2)
4.2 Review of Economic integration in Latin America from the Import-Substitution to the Washington Consensus
142(19)
4.2.1 Regional Integration within a Protectionist Framework
142(1)
LAFTA
142(3)
New attempt of integration: LAIA
145(2)
Other Free Trade Agreements among Latin American Countries
147(1)
The Andean Pact
147(2)
Economic Integration in Central America
149(1)
4.2.2 The New Integration Approach
150(2)
The Integration between Argentina and Brazil
152(3)
The Enlargement of the Agreement to Paraguay and Uruguay
155(1)
MERCOSUR: The Asuncion Treaty
155(2)
Institutional Aspects of MERCOSUR
157(1)
The Transition Period
158(3)
4.3 Macroeconomic Profile of MERCOSUR
161(14)
Stylized Facts
161(1)
Structure and Evolution of Regional GDP
161(7)
Fiscal Sector
168(1)
Monetary Sector
168(1)
Exchange Rates and Capital Inflows
169(2)
Foreign Sector
171(4)
4.4. Recent MERCOSUR Relevant Experiences with Fixed Exchange Rates
175(14)
Stabilization Plans Anchored on Fixed Exchange Rates
175(6)
4.4.1 The Argentinian Currency Board System
181(2)
The Effect of the Currency Board on the Argentinian
183(2)
Economy
183(2)
Recent Developments and Evaluation
185(1)
4.4.2 The Brazilian Real Plan
186(2)
Recent Developments
188(1)
4.5 Summary and Conclusions
189(7)
Appendix 4.1
196(2)
5. CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND ECONOMIC POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
198(5)
6 REFERENCES
203

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