The Business Forecasting Deal Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions
, by Gilliland, MichaelNote: Supplemental materials are not guaranteed with Rental or Used book purchases.
- ISBN: 9780470574430 | 0470574437
- Cover: Hardcover
- Copyright: 6/8/2010
There are many books that discuss statistical forecasting modeling; this book is not one of them. This book provides a practical approach for the nonstatistical problems that forecasters face (e.g., what needs to be forecasted, how often a forecast should take place, what is volatility, and problems in business forecasting). The tentative contents is:Chapter 1: Fundamental Issues of Business Forecasting (Basic Principles, Definition of Demand, What to Forecast, What Accuracy is Required, The Naive Forecast, The Politics of Forecasting)Chapter 2: The Problems of Business Forecasting (Demand Volatility, Performance Measurement, Forecasting Without History)Chapter 3: Alternative Solutions to the Forecasting Problem (Standard Forecasting Methods, Failings of the Statistical Approach, Evangelical Forecasting, Supply Chain Engineering, Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment, Demand Smoothing, Proactive Collaboration, Pruning)Chapter 4: Forecast Value Added Analysis (The Lean Approach to Forecasting, Data Requirements, Analysis and Reporting, Presenting Results to Management, Streamlining the Process)Chapter 5: Worst Practices in Business Forecasting (Inappropriate Performance Goals, Overfitting Statistical Models, Handling Outliers, Gaming the Metrics, Software Selection, Forecasting When You Shouldn't, Blaming the Forecast)Chapter 6: The Aphorisms of Business ForecastingChapter 7: Practical First Steps