Central Asia's Second Chance

Central Asia's first decade of independence was disappointing for those who envisioned a transition from Soviet republics to independent states with market economies and democratic political systems. The region was given a "second chance" to address social and economic problems, but the Soviet-era leaders have been more interested in exploiting state resources and controlling their populations than in implementing democratic and regional reforms.

Martha Brill Olcott, is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in Central Asian and Caspian affairs

Foreword

vii

Jessica T. Mathews

Acknowledgments

ix

Abbreviations and Acronyms

xii

After September 11, An Unexpected Chance

1

(19)

Central Asia: The First Ten Years of Independence

20

(32)

The Geopolitics of Central Asia prior to September 11

52

(31)

Meeting Social and Economic Burdens

83

(41)

Failures of Political Institution Building Create the Challenge of Succession

124

(49)

Changing Geopolitics: Less Has Changed than One Might Think

173

(33)

What to Expect from the Future: Dealing with Common Problems

206

(81)

Appendixes

Basic Information by Country

246

(5)

Key Economic Indicators

251

(1)

Key Social Indicators

252

(1)

Multilateral Assistance

253

(1)

U.S. Government Assistance Before and After 9/11

254

(5)

Freedom Support Act Funding, 1992--2003

259

(5)

Economic Growth, 1990--2002

264

(1)

Major Joint Venture Projects

265

(3)

Energy Production

268

(1)

Freedom House Democracy Indicators

269

(2)

Combating the Flow of Drugs

271

(1)

Key Political Parties

272

(8)

Islamic Organizations

280

(4)

Major Cities---Old and New Names

284

(3)

Notes

287

(56)

Selected Bibliography

343

(32)

Index

375

(13)

About the Author

388

(1)

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

389

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Central Asia's Second Chance

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials