Changing by Degrees: The Potential Impacts of

The first regional integrated assessment of climate change in the UK, this important study explores the potential impacts of such change upon key landscapes, economic and social sectors.

List of Figures

ix

List of Tables

xiii

Acknowledgements

xvii

Executive Summary

xviii

What is the Purpose of the Study

1

(2)

What is Climate Change

3

(6)

Climate Change - An Introduction

3

(1)

Progress with Climate Change at the International Level

4

(1)

Progress with Climate Change at the National Level

5

(3)

The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

5

(2)

The UK Climate Impacts Programme

7

(1)

References

8

(1)

Characterisation of the East Midlands

9

(28)

Overview

9

(3)

The Physical Context

9

(1)

Sub Areas

9

(2)

Infrastructure

11

(1)

Economy

12

(6)

Overview

12

(4)

Agriculture

16

(1)

Tourism and Leisure

16

(1)

Energy

17

(1)

Social Conditions

18

(2)

Population

18

(1)

Social Deprivation

18

(1)

Housing

19

(1)

Natural Environment

20

(14)

Biodiversity

20

(2)

Water

22

(1)

Air Quality

23

(1)

Land Use

24

(2)

Woodland and Forestry

26

(1)

Cultural Heritage

26

(1)

The Environment Agency's East Midlands Local Environment Agency Plans (LEAPs)

27

(7)

Conclusions

34

(1)

References

35

(2)

Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the East Midlands

37

(44)

Summary

37

(5)

Observed Trends in Environmental Parameters

37

(1)

Future Climate Scenarios for the East Midlands from UKCIP98

38

(1)

Comparison of Regional Climate Change Scenarios

39

(3)

Observed Trends in Environmental Parameters

42

(11)

Historic Trends in Temperature

43

(1)

Historic Trends in Precipitation and Gates

43

(2)

Historic Trends in Evaporation and Humidity

45

(2)

Historic Trends in River Flow

47

(1)

Historic Trends in Sea Level

48

(4)

Historic Trends in Water Quality

52

(1)

Future Climate Scenarios for the East Midlands

53

(21)

UKCIP98 Scenarios

53

(6)

Climate Change Analogues

59

(1)

Regional Climate Model Scenario

60

(6)

Statistically Downscaled Scenarios

66

(6)

Statistical Downscaling (SDS) Compared with Raw HadCM2 (GCM)

72

(2)

Concluding Remarks

74

(1)

Recommendations for Future Research

74

(1)

Acknowledgement

75

(1)

References

75

(6)

Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the East Midlands

81

(70)

Introduction

81

(1)

Classification of Impact Domains

82

(1)

Sectors/Systems

82

(56)

Agriculture and Horticulture

82

(8)

Forestry

90

(2)

Water Resources and Flooding

92

(15)

Biodiversity

107

(10)

Cultural Heritage

117

(1)

Leisure and Tourism

118

(2)

Transport

120

(2)

The Impact of Climate Change upon the Built Environment

122

(4)

Manufacturing/Services and Retail

126

(6)

Insurance

132

(1)

Public Health

133

(1)

Energy

134

(2)

Coastal Zone

136

(2)

Summary

138

(9)

References

147

(4)

East Midlands' Stakeholder Perceptions of Climate Change

151

(34)

Results of the Postal Questionnaire and Analysis

151

(24)

How Important is Climate Change in Relation to Other Key Issues?

152

(1)

The Impacts of Particular Types of Climate Change

152

(1)

The Impacts of One Climate Change Scenario upon Twenty Sectors

152

(2)

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions

154

(1)

Differences between Business and Non-Business Responses

155

(1)

Commentary on the Questionnaire

156

(1)

Summary

157

(18)

Results from a Set of Five Workshops

175

(9)

Highlights from the Environment Agency Workshop

176

(1)

Highlights from Buxton Workshop

177

(1)

Highlights from Nottingham Workshop

177

(1)

Highlights from Skegness Workshop

178

(1)

Highlights from Workshop in Northampton

179

(1)

Discussion and Analysis of Workshops

179

(5)

Conclusions

184

(1)

References

184

(1)

Greenhouse Gas Inventory

185

(35)

Summary

185

(1)

Introduction

186

(1)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data

187

(1)

Emissions Estimation Methods

188

(1)

Data Used in Determining Emissions

189

(1)

Uncertainty

190

(1)

Monitoring Future Emissions

190

(1)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source

191

(21)

Combustion in Energy Production and Transformation

203

(1)

Combustion in Commercial, Public, Residential and Agricultural Sectors

204

(1)

Combustion in Industry

205

(1)

Production Processes

205

(1)

Extraction/Distribution of Fossil Fuels

206

(1)

Road Transport

207

(1)

Other Transport and Mobile Machinery

207

(2)

Waste Treatment and Disposal

209

(1)

Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Change

209

(1)

Other Industrial Sources

210

(2)

East Midlands Initiatives to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

212

(3)

Future Activities and Opportunities

215

(1)

Conclusions and Recommendations

215

(3)

Conclusions

215

(1)

Recommendations

216

(2)

References

218

(2)

Responding to Climate Change and Conclusions

220

(20)

Introduction

220

(1)

Organisational and Company Responses to Climate Change Impacts

220

(8)

The Concept of Climate Change Headroom

228

(3)

What are the Key Strategic Processes in the East Midlands that Should be Considering the Potential Impacts of Climate Change?

231

(1)

What Indicators Should be Used for Climate Change?

232

(2)

Climate Change Targets

234

(1)

Future Research Requirements

235

(3)

References

238

(2)

Appendix 1 Questionnaire: The Impacts of Climate Change in the East Midlands

240

(7)

Appendix 2 Notes on Buxton Stakeholder Workshop

247

(10)

Appendix 3 Notes on Nottingham Stakeholder Workshop

257

(8)

Appendix 4 Notes on Skegness Stakeholder Workshop

265

(10)

Appendix 5 Notes on Northampton Stakeholder Workshop

275

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Changing by Degrees: The Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the East Midlands

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials