Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. He is Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.

George Wright is a Professor at Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde. He is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and anAssociate Editor of both Decision Support Systems and the International Journal of Forecasting.

Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips vii

Preface ix

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15

Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 33

Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 65

Chapter 5 Introduction to probability 95

Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty 117

Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 161

Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 187

Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 221

Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 245

Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 275

Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management 297

Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309

Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 337

Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 361

Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 387

Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 423

Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions 437

Suggested answers to selected questions 469

Index 475

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