Defence Planning and Uncertainty: Preparing for the Next Asia-Pacific War

Predicting the impact of China's rise on East Asia is especially difficult for defence planners, whose work is always concenrned with assessing strategic risk, deciding which risks are more likely than others, and designing the structure of forces to deal with potential threats, where the forces thus designed can fix the shape of regional defence for years to come.ã This book analyses the defence policy statements of three key Asia Pacific powers - the United States, Australia and New Zealand - and shows how uncertainty about the rise of China has influenced current defence planning decisions, and how thinking about the strategic risks associated with China have changed over time.ã Key issues covered include the difference in approach by the three countries, the degree to which strategic risk emanates from China directly or indirectly from China's wider impact on the region, the consequences for Japan of China's rise, and an assessment of whether the defence planning responses are commesurate with the real degree of risk.