Economic Value of Weather and Climate

Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.

Preface

ix

(4)

Contributors

xiii

1. Weather prediction

1

(18)

Joseph J. Tribbia

1. History and introduction

1

(4)

2. The modern era

5

(3)

3. Finite predictability

8

(4)

4. The future

12

(7)

2. Forecast verification

19

(56)

Allan H. Murphy

1. Introduction

19

(2)

2. Conceptual and methodological framework

21

(17)

3. Absolute verification: methods and applications

38

(17)

4. Comparative verification: methods and applications

55

(9)

5. Other methods and measures

64

(3)

6. Forecast quality and forecast value

67

(3)

7. Conclusion

70

(5)

3. The value of weather information

75

(34)

Stanley R. Johnson

Matthew T. Holt

1. Introduction

75

(2)

2. Economics and the value of information

77

(11)

3. Review of selected value-of-information studies

88

(10)

4. Valuation puzzles

98

(5)

5. Concluding observations

103

(6)

4. Forecast value: prescriptive decision studies

109

(38)

Daniel S. Wilks

1. Introduction

109

(3)

2. Case study attributes

112

(12)

3. Case study tabulations

124

(16)

4. Concluding remarks

140

(7)

5. Forecast value: descriptive decision studies

147

(36)

Thomas R. Stewart

1. Introduction

147

(1)

2. Comparison of descriptive and prescriptive studies

147

(9)

3. Examples of descriptive studies

156

(12)

4. Factors that affect differences between descriptive and prescriptive models

168

(3)

5. Overview of descriptive modeling methods

171

(2)

6. Conclusion

173

(10)

6. Forecast value: prototype decision-making models

183

(36)

Richard W. Katz

Allan H. Murphy

1. Introduction

183

(1)

2. Concepts

184

(6)

3. Prototype decision-making models

190

(16)

4. Extensions

206

(7)

5. Implications

213

(1)

Appendix: Stochastic dynamic programming

214

(5)

Index

219

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Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials