Effects of Including Agricultural Products in the Customs Union Between Turkey and the EU : A Partial Equilibrium Analysis for Turkey

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ISBN: 9780820465388 | 0820465380
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 7/1/2004

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List of Tables	p. 15
List of Graphs	p. 21
List of Figures	p. 21
Abbreviations	p. 23
Executive Summary	p. 25
Introduction	p. 27
Agricultural Markets and Policies in Turkey and the European Union	p. 31
Introductory Overview	p. 31
Agricultural Markets and Product-Specific Support Policies	p. 33
Cereals	p. 33
Other Crops	p. 36
Fruit and Vegetables	p. 39
Meat	p. 45
Eggs and Milk	p. 49
Non-Product-Specific Agricultural Policies	p. 52
Development and Status of Agricultural Trade Relations between Turkey and the European Union	p. 53
Overview of Agricultural Trade between Turkey and the European Union	p. 53
Agricultural Trade Preferences between Turkey and the European Union	p. 57
EU Preferences Granted for Agricultural Products Originating from Turkey	p. 57
Turkish Preferences Granted for Agricultural Products Originating from the EU	p. 63
Preferential Trade Arrangements for Non-Annex I Products	p. 65
Future Agricultural Trade Relations between Turkey and the EU: The Potential Inclusion of Agriculture in the Customs Union	p. 69
Theoretical Aspects of a Customs Union in Agriculture between Turkey and the EU	p. 69
Comparative Static Effects	p. 69
Dynamic Effects of Market Integration	p. 71
Previous Analytical Work on the Integration of Agricultural Markets between Turkey and the EU	p. 72
Institutional Aspects of a Customs Union in Agriculture between Turkey and the EU	p. 75
Harmonization of Agricultural Price Policies and Prices	p. 75
Harmonization of Other Agricultural Policies	p. 76
WTO Aspects	p. 77
Market Access	p. 79
Export Competition	p. 81
Domestic Support	p. 84
Qualification and Structure of the Turkish Agricultural Sector Model for Policy Analysis	p. 89
Potential Modeling Tools for the Analysis of the Extension of the Customs Union and Justification of the Chosen Model	p. 89
Overview of the Turkish Agricultural Sector Model	p. 93
Integration into the International Trade Environment	p. 102
Basic Approach	p. 102
The Generation of Border Prices and the Link to the Domestic Price Level in the Base Situation	p. 104
The Generation of Border Prices and the Link to the Domestic Price Level in Simulations	p. 107
Farm Supply Model	p. 108
Plant Products	p. 109
Basic Mechanisms	p. 109
Additional Irrigation Area	p. 110
Animal Products	p. 112
Feed Model	p. 114
Processing Model	p. 115
Demand Model	p. 115
Welfare Calculations	p. 116
Welfare Changes at Farm Level	p. 116
Welfare Changes at the Consumer Level	p. 121
Welfare Changes at the Level of the Processing Industry	p. 121
Budgetary Effects	p. 121
Behavioral Parameters	p. 123
Basic Approach	p. 123
Supply Side	p. 124
Plant Products	p. 124
Determination of Own Price Elasticities and Cost Shares of Variable Inputs	p. 126
Determination of Cross Price Elasticities	p. 129
Animal Products	p. 131
Demand Side	p. 133
Estimation of Income Elasticities from Expenditure Survey Data	p. 133
Basic Considerations on the Use of Income Elasticity Estimates Based on Cross-Section Expenditure Data for Agricultural Sector Models	p. 134
Data Set	p. 138
Estimation Method and Results	p. 149
Development of Elasticity-Matrices of Human Demand for Each Income Quintile	p. 152
Determination of Income and Own Price Elasticities	p. 153
Determination of Cross Price Elasticities	p. 158
Development of Elasticity-Matrices of Feed Demand	p. 158
Determination of Processing Demand Elasticities	p. 159
Estimation of Price Transmission Elasticities for Animal Products	p. 160
Data Set for Model Calibration	p. 167
Supply, Trade, and Demand	p. 167
Supply	p. 167
Standard Approach	p. 167
Specific Cases	p. 167
Trade	p. 170
Demand	p. 171
Processing Demand, Seed Demand, and Waste	p. 171
Feed Demand	p. 171
Human Demand	p. 173
Domestic Prices, Trade Prices, and Margins	p. 175
Domestic Prices	p. 175
Trade Prices	p. 176
Margins	p. 176
Base Period Policies	p. 177
Tariffs	p. 177
Export Subsidies	p. 177
Producer Premiums	p. 178
Projection Scenarios	p. 179
World Market Prices	p. 180
Shifters at the Supply Side	p. 182
Shifters at the Demand Side	p. 183
Development of the Southeast Anatolian Irrigation Project	p. 183
Policies and Price Formation under the Status Quo and the Liberalization Scenario	p. 185
Policies and Price Formation under the CU Scenario	p. 186
Results of Policy Simulations	p. 191
Effects on Agricultural Prices, Production, and Consumption	p. 191
National Effects Aggregated per Product Group	p. 191
National Effects per Product	p. 197
Production Effects per Region and Consumption Effects per Income Quintile	p. 201
Effects on Trade	p. 203
Welfare Effects	p. 206
Effects on Producer and Consumer Welfare	p. 206
Effects on Budgetary Outlays and Revenue and Overall Welfare Effects	p. 210
Effects on Welfare Distribution	p. 213
Changes in Producer Surplus per Region	p. 213
Change in Consumer Welfare per Income Group	p. 218
Impact of Changes in Farmgate-Wholesale Price Margins and the Real Exchange Rate	p. 219
Conclusions	p. 223
Liberalization of the Agricultural Sector	p. 223
Extension of the Customs Union with the EU to Cover Agricultural Products	p. 226
References	p. 229
Annex	p. 237
to Chapter 3
Overview of Existing Preferences Granted by the EU for Agricultural Imports Originating in Turkey	p. 239
to Chapter 5
TURKSIM GAMS code	p. 255
to Chapter 6
Table A-6.1: Allen Substitution Elasticities of Area Allocation	p. 285
Tables A-6.2-10: Regional Price Elasticities of Area Allocation	p. 286
Tables A-6.11-19: Regional Price Elasticities of Animal Supply	p. 295
Table A-6.20: Allen Substitution Elasticities of Human Demand	p. 297
Tables A-6.21-25: Compensated Price Elasticities of Human Demand per income quintile	p. 298
Tables A-6.26-30: Allen Substitution Elasticities of Feed Demand	p. 303
Tables A-6.31-35: Price Elasticities of Feed Demand	p. 304
to Chapter 7
Tables A-7.1-A-7.4 (Base data)	p. 305
to Chapter 8
Tables A-8.1-A-8.3 (price data for scenarios)	p. 311
to Chapter 9
Table A-9: Results per product	p. 314
other
Map of Production Regions in Turkey	p. 315
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Effects of Including Agricultural Products in the Customs Union Between Turkey and the EU : A Partial Equilibrium Analysis for Turkey

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