The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed

This book tells how quantitative ideas of chance have transformed the natural and social sciences as well as everyday life over the past three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling, and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact on biology, physics, and psychology. In contrast to the literature on the mathematical development of probability and statistics, this book centers on how these technical innovations recreated our conceptions of nature, mind, and society.

Acknowledgments

xi

Introduction

xiii

Classical probabilities, 1660--1840

1

(36)

Introduction

1

(1)

The beginnings

2

(4)

The classical interpretation

6

(5)

Determinism

11

(3)

Reasonableness

14

(5)

Risk in gambling and insurance

19

(7)

Evidence and causes

26

(6)

The moral sciences

32

(2)

Conclusion

34

(3)

Statistical probabilities, 1820--1900

37

(33)

Introduction

37

(1)

Statistical regularity and I'homme moyen

38

(7)

Opposition to statistics

45

(3)

Statistics and variation

48

(5)

The error law and correlation

53

(6)

The statistical critique of determinism

59

(9)

Conclusion

68

(2)

The inference experts

70

(53)

In want of a ``system of mean results''

70

(3)

Analysis of variance

73

(6)

Fisher's antecedents: early significance tests and comparative experimentation

79

(11)

The controversy: Fisher vs. Neyman and Pearson

90

(16)

Hybridization: the silent solution

106

(3)

The statistical profession: intellectual autonomy

109

(6)

The statistical profession: institutions and influence

115

(5)

Conclusion

120

(3)

Chance and life: controversies in modern biology

123

(40)

Introduction

123

(1)

Spontaneity and Control: chance in physiology

124

(8)

Coincidence and design: chance in natural history

132

(9)

Correlations and causes: chance in genetics

141

(11)

Sampling and selection: chance in evolutionary biology

152

(11)

The probabilistic revolution in physics

163

(40)

The background: classical physics

163

(3)

Probability in classical physics: the epistemic interpretation

166

(4)

Three limitations of classical physics: sources of probabilism

170

(5)

Comments on the three limitations

175

(4)

Mass phenomena and propensities

179

(3)

Explanations from probabilistic assumptions

182

(5)

The puzzle of irreversibility in time

187

(3)

The discontinuity underlying all change

190

(13)

Statistics of the mind

203

(32)

Introduction

203

(1)

The pre-statistical period

204

(1)

The new tools

205

(6)

From tools to theories of mind

211

(3)

A Case study: from thining to judgments under uncertainty

214

(12)

The return of the reasonable man

226

(7)

Conclusion

233

(2)

Numbers rule the world

235

(36)

Introduction

235

(2)

New objects

237

(14)

New values

251

(12)

New rules

263

(7)

Conclusion

270

(1)

The implications of chance

271

(22)

Probabilistic imperialism

271

(3)

What does probability mean?

274

(2)

Determinism

276

(10)

Mechanized inference

286

(3)

Statistical Lebensgefuhl

289

(4)

References

293

(34)

Name index

327

(7)

Subject index

334

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The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials