The Essential Herman Kahn In Defense of

By his untimely death in 1983, Herman Kahn was recognized by both friends and intellectual adversaries as "one of the world's most creative and best minds." The current, growing resurgence of interest in Kahn's ideas and intellectual legacy demonstrates the enduring relevance of his work. Yet, in spite of the constant influence of his arguments, there is a shortage of books summarizing Kahn's essential contributions, and thus his work is not as well known as it should be.

Paul Dragos Aligica is senior fellow at the Mercatus Center, faculty fellow at the James Buchanan Center for Political Economy, George Mason University, and adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute. Kenneth R. Weinstein is chief executive officer of the Hudson Institute.

Acknowledgments	p. vii
Introduction	p. 1
Thinking about the Unthinkable: Scenarios, Grand Strategy, and Thermonuclear War
In Defense of Thinking	p. 9
Twelve Nonissues and Twelve Almost Nonissues	p. 27
The Revolution in Warfare: Continuities and Discontinuities	p. 39
On Escalation	p. 53
Seizing the Moral, Political, and Strategic High Ground	p. 63
A World Turning Point: Economic Growth, Cultural Change, and the Long View
The Big Picture-and Some Details: Watersheds of History	p. 79
Viewing Growth in Context	p. 91
Four Characteristic Views of Two Basic Images of the Earth-Centered Perspective	p. 99
Some Current Cultural Contradictions of Economic Growth: The New Emphases	p. 115
Economic Development: Economic and Cultural Parameters	p. 129
The Alienated-Affluent Society	p. 141
The Challenge of the Future: Futurology, Methodology, and Policy Research
The Objectives of Future-Oriented Policy Research	p. 155
The Agnostic Use of Information and Concepts	p. 167
Forecasting the Future: History Happens in Straight Lines and Curves	p. 177
A Methodological Framework: The Alternative World Futures Approach	p. 181
The Method of Classes of Variables	p. 199
Ways to Go Wrong	p. 205
Technological Innovation: Mistakes of Omission and Commission	p. 215
The Task Ahead: Observations, Recommendations, and Parting Polemics
The Normative Perspective and the Ideology of Tomorrow	p. 223
Transitional Problems	p. 229
The Expert and Educated Incapacity	p. 237
Current Western Cultural Trends	p. 247
Futurology and the Future of Economic Development	p. 253
The Task Ahead	p. 259
Appendix: Herman Kahn: A Bio-Bibliographical Note Paul Dragos Aligica and Kenneth R. Weinstein	p. 267
Selected Bibliography	p. 273
Index	p. 275
About the Editors	p. 277
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The Essential Herman Kahn In Defense of Thinking

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