Human Reliability Assessment Theory and Practice

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ISBN: 9781420068511 | 1420068512
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 10/8/2009

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Still a developing discipline, Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) has seen many changes in the past few years. And since it is still developing, its methods have elements of controversy. Exploring these elements, this book covers data and data sources, choice of methods, training of individuals, use of simulators, and relationships between psychology, human factors, accident analyses, and human reliability. It covers background, risk concepts, and HRA principles, then examines a range of current HRA models and tools and how to select the appropriate one. These discussions provide HRA specialists and decision makers with the research to either backup their decisions or lead them to change them.

The Blind Men and the Elephant	p. v
Preface	p. xv
Acknowledgments	p. xvii
The Author	p. xix
Introduction	p. 1
Purpose of the Book	p. 1
Contents of the Book	p. 3
Potential Users of the Book	p. 5
Author's Philosophy	p. 6
Background	p. 9
Introduction	p. 9
Early Developments	p. 9
USNRC-Sponsored HRA-Related Studies	p. 11
EPRI-Funded HRA Projects	p. 12
Other Organizational Involvement in HRA	p. 14
Plant Safety and Risk	p. 15
Introduction	p. 15
Licensing Requirements	p. 18
PSA Logic Structure-Event Trees and Fault Trees	p. 18
Human Error Categories	p. 19
Human Error Types in PRAs	p. 19
Dependence Between Various Human Actions	p. 22
Organization of HRA Studies	p. 23
Human Reliability Analysis Process	p. 23
HRA Process Step 1: Select and Train HRA Team	p. 24
HRA Process Step 2: Familiarize the HRA Team	p. 26
HRA Step 3: Build Initial Plant Model	p. 26
HRA Step 4: Screen Human Interactions	p. 26
HRA Step 5: Characterize Human Interactions	p. 27
HRA Step 6: Quantify Human Interactions	p. 28
HRA Step 7: Update Plant Model	p. 29
HRA Step 8: Review Results	p. 29
HRA Principles and Concepts	p. 31
Introduction	p. 31
Background	p. 31
Human Reliability Considerations	p. 33
Crew Models	p. 36
Accident Progression and HRA Pathways	p. 37
Database Requirements and Expert Judgment	p. 37
PRA/HRA Organization	p. 38
Requirements for HRA Experts	p. 39
Review of Current HRA Models and Methods	p. 41
Introduction	p. 41
Background	p. 41
HRA Models: Characterization	p. 44
Descriptions: Models within Three Groups	p. 46
Task-Related HRA Models	p. 46
THERP	p. 46
The Second Group of Task-Related HRA Methods	p. 49
Time-Related HRA Models	p. 53
Swain TRC	p. 53
Context-Related HRA Models	p. 55
Holistic Decision Tree Method	p. 56
CREAM II	p. 58
SPAR-H	p. 60
MERMOS	p. 61
HRA Tools and Methods	p. 65
Introduction	p. 65
Human Reliability Aspects: Dependencies	p. 65
Introduction	p. 65
Background	p. 67
Control Room Crew Philosophies	p. 68
Details of the DT Approach	p. 69
Development of Dependency DT: Process	p. 73
Evaluation of Dependent Events in Sequence	p. 73
Consideration of Influence Factors	p. 74
Estimation of Beta Factors	p. 76
Comments	p. 77
Errors of Commission and Omission	p. 77
Development of HDT Model Covering EOCs and OOCs	p. 78
Errors of Omission (OOCs)	p. 78
Errors of Commission (EOCs)	p. 78
An Approach to Modeling Different End States	p. 79
Expert Judgment Methods	p. 79
Computer-Based Tools for Estimation of HEPs	p. 80
Fires and Low-Power and Shut-Down PRAs	p. 82
Fire PRAs	p. 82
Low-Power and Shut-Down PRAs	p. 83
HRA Methods: A Critique	p. 85
Introduction	p. 85
Background	p. 86
HRA Models: Characterization	p. 87
Pros and Cons of Each HRA Model	p. 88
Task-Defined HRA-Type Model: THERP	p. 88
Task-Defined HRA-Type Model: CBDT	p. 90
Task-Defined HRA-Type Models: HEART and NARA	p. 91
HEART	p. 91
NARA	p. 93
Time-Defined HRA-Type Model: TRC	p. 94
Context-Defined HRA Types	p. 97
CREAM Method	p. 97
ATHEANA Method	p. 98
MERMOS Method	p. 99
SLIM Method	p. 100
Holistic Decision Tree Method	p. 101
SPAR-H Method	p. 102
Conclusions and Recommendations	p. 102
Analysis of Accidents: Various Industries	p. 105
Introduction	p. 105
Three Mile Island Unit 2 Accident	p. 111
Introduction	p. 111
Description of the Plant	p. 111
Accident: Sequence of Events	p. 112
Discussion of the Accident	p. 114
Analysis	p. 115
Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident	p. 116
Introduction	p. 116
Description of the Plant	p. 116
Sequence of Events	p. 117
Analysis	p. 118
NASA Challenger Accident, January 28, 1986	p. 119
Background	p. 119
Description of the Accident	p. 119
Analysis	p. 122
NASA Columbia Accident, February 14, 2004	p. 122
Background	p. 122
Description of the Accident	p. 123
Recoveries	p. 124
Analysis	p. 125
Tenerife, Canary Islands Runway Accident, March 1977	p. 125
Background	p. 125
Accident Location	p. 126
Sequence of Events	p. 126
Analysis	p. 128
Airbus 300 Accident at JFK Airport, November 12, 2002	p. 128
Accident Description	p. 128
Analysis	p. 130
BP Oil Refinery, Texas City, March 2005	p. 130
Description of the Accident	p. 130
Accident Sequence	p. 131
Analysis	p. 133
Piper Alpha Oil Rig Accident: North Sea, July 6, 1988	p. 134
Introduction	p. 134
Description of the Accident	p. 134
Description of Accident Sequence	p. 134
Analysis	p. 136
Union Carbide Savin (Pesticide) Plant, Bhopal, India, April 1988	p. 137
Introduction	p. 137
Description of the Accident	p. 138
Analysis	p. 141
Flaujac: Express/Local Train Crash, August 1985	p. 141
Description of the Accident	p. 141
Analysis	p. 143
Underground Fire at King's Cross, May 1990	p. 144
Introduction	p. 144
Description of the Accident	p. 145
Analysis	p. 147
Analysis of Accidents Using HRA Techniques	p. 149
Introduction	p. 149
Investigation of Chapter 8 Accident Situations	p. 151
Analysis from HRA Point of View	p. 153
Three Mile Island, Nuclear Accident	p. 154
Analysis of the Accident	p. 156
Summary	p. 159
Chernobyl Nuclear Accident	p. 159
Analysis of the Accident	p. 160
Summary	p. 160
NASA Challenger Accident	p. 161
Analysis	p. 161
Summary	p. 162
NASA Columbia Accident	p. 162
Analysis	p. 163
Summary	p. 165
Tenerife Air Transport Accident	p. 165
Analysis of the Accident	p. 165
Summary	p. 167
JFK Airport Accident	p. 168
Analysts of the Accident	p. 168
Summary	p. 169
Bhopal Chemical Plant Accident	p. 169
Analysis of the Accident	p. 170
Summary	p. 170
Texas City Oil Refinery Accident	p. 171
Analysis of the Accident	p. 171
Summary	p. 173
Piper Alpha Oil Rig Accident	p. 173
Analysis of the Accident	p. 174
Summary	p. 176
Flaujac Accident, French Railway	p. 176
Analysis	p. 177
Summary	p. 178
King's Cross Underground Railway Accident	p. 178
Analysis	p. 178
Summary	p. 179
Comments	p. 179
An Application of an HRA Method (HDT) to a Real Problem	p. 181
Introduction	p. 181
Description of the International Space Station	p. 181
Operating Conditions and Roles of Astronauts and Controllers	p. 183
ISS PRA: Background	p. 183
HDT Method Applied to ISS	p. 185
Steps in Performing an HDT Analysis	p. 187
Step 1: List of Potential Influence Factors	p. 187
HRA: Plan and Process	p. 188
Indoctrination Phase	p. 189
Selection of Influence Factors Affecting Crew Performance	p. 190
Developing IF Importance Rankings	p. 194
Holistic Decision Tree Construction	p. 196
Selection of Quality Descriptors and Rating the Influence Factors	p. 196
Selection of Quality Descriptor Values	p. 197
Selection of Anchor Values	p. 198
Calculation of HEP Values	p. 199
HEP Results for a Representative Accident Scenario	p. 200
Comments	p. 201
Data Sources, Data Banks, and Expert Judgment	p. 203
Introduction	p. 203
Associated Databases	p. 205
Standalone Databases	p. 206
Simulator Databases	p. 207
Expert Judgment Methods	p. 210
Conclusions	p. 213
Use of Simulator Data for HRA Purposes	p. 215
Introduction	p. 215
Design of Simulators	p. 218
Simulator History	p. 220
Brief History of Simulator Data Collection Studies	p. 221
Purposes of Data Collection	p. 224
Data Collection Systems and Processes	p. 225
Manual Data Collection	p. 225
Automated Data Collection Systems	p. 225
Insights: From Time and Observational Data	p. 227
Use of Simulator Data for HRA Purposes	p. 233
Design of Scenarios	p. 234
Discussion and Conclusions	p. 236
Impact of Systematic Data Collection on Training	p. 239
Introduction	p. 239
Data Collection and Analysis Process	p. 240
Analysis Process	p. 242
Experience with Data Collection	p. 243
Conclusions and Recommendations	p. 246
Discussion and Conclusions	p. 247
Introduction	p. 247
HEP Range	p. 247
Impact of the Selection of HRA Models	p. 248
Organizational Influence	p. 248
Lessons from the Accident Reviews	p. 249
Selection of Experts	p. 250
Databases	p. 251
Fires	p. 251
Low-Power and Shut-Down	p. 252
Fuel Repository Operations	p. 252
Relevance to Other Industries	p. 253
Release of Data and Model Developments	p. 254
References	p. 257
Appendix	p. 265
Index	p. 267
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Human Reliability Assessment Theory and Practice

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