Hydrometeorological Hazards Interfacing Science and Policy

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EXTREME EVENTS

Hydrometeorological Hazards:

Interfacing Science and Policy

Recent hydrometeorological extreme events have highlighted the increased exposure and vulnerability of societies and the need to strengthen the knowledge-base of related policies. Current research is focused on improving forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of vulnerability and risks linked to extreme climatic events.

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Interfacing Science and Policy is the first volume of a series which will gather scientific and policy-related knowledge on climate-related extreme events. Invited authors are internationally recognized experts in their respective fields. This volume reflects the most recent advances in science and policy within this field and takes a multidisciplinary approach. The book provides the reader with a state-of-the art account of flash floods, droughts, storms, and a comprehensive discussion focused on the cost of natural hazards, resilience and adaptation.

This book will be an invaluable reference for advanced undergraduates taking courses with a focus on natural hazards, including climate-related extreme events. The book will also be of interest to postgraduates, researchers and policymakers in this field looking for an overview of the subject.

Series Foreword xi

Preface xiii

The Series Editor – Philippe Quevauviller xv

List of Contributors xvii

PART ONE: SETTING THE SCENE 1

1.1 Strengthened Resilience from Historic Experience. European Societies Confronted with Hydrometeors in the Sixteenth to Twentieth Centuries 3
Emmanuel Garnier

1.1.1 Introduction 3

1.1.2 Five centuries of droughts 4

1.1.2.1 Historic material and methods of evaluation 4

1.1.2.2 A comparative approach to historic European droughts 7

1.1.3 The European coast confronted with surges: A first ever? 12

1.1.3.1 The French coasts 13

1.1.3.2 European comparison 13

1.1.3.3 Memory of the big floods in Northern Europe 15

1.1.4 A memory of risk or a culture of survival? 17

1.1.4.1 Living with droughts in the Cyclades: The Syros island 17

1.1.4.2 The Atlantic flood of 1937 as a revelation of coastal weaknesses 19

1.1.4.3 The lessons of history regarding impact strength 22

1.1.5 Conclusion 24

References 24

1.2 Current Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Events 27
Richard Harding, Nick Reynard and Alison Kay

1.2.1 Introduction 27

1.2.2 Global water balance, past and future 28

1.2.2.1 Humidity and evaporation 28

1.2.2.2 Precipitation 29

1.2.2.3 River run-off 29

1.2.3 Global extremes – Rainfall, floods and droughts 30

1.2.3.1 Precipitation 30

1.2.3.2 Storminess 30

1.2.3.3 Droughts 31

1.2.3.4 Floods 32

1.2.4 Future global predictions 33

1.2.5 Regional drought and water resources 35

1.2.5.1 Drought in the twentieth century 35

1.2.5.2 Twenty-first century drought 37

1.2.6 Case study: Science to support policy for flood management under climate change 39

1.2.7 Adaptation planning 41

1.2.8 Concluding remarks 43

References 43

1.3 Features Common to Different Hydrometeorological Events and Knowledge Integration 49
Barbara Zanuttigh

1.3.1 Introduction 49

1.3.2 Extreme hydrometeorological events and disasters: An increasing trend 50

1.3.3 Integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation 52

1.3.4 Predicting disasters: Dealing with uncertainties and scales 56

1.3.5 Better understanding system exposure at the hazard 58

1.3.6 Resilience: From concept to operation 61

1.3.7 Learning from experience 63

1.3.8 Risk governance: Responsibility and participation 67

1.3.9 Risk communication 70

1.3.10 A roadmap towards a sustainable future 72

References 75

1.4 Science and Policy Interfacing 83
Philippe Quevauviller

1.4.1 Introduction 83

1.4.2 Taking account of the knowledge base 83

1.4.3 Concept of science and policy interfacing 84

1.4.4 Matching research with policy needs 85

1.4.4.1 Type of research 85

1.4.4.2 Short analysis of drawbacks 86

1.4.5 Research–policy interactions 86

1.4.5.1 Interactions with the scientific community 86

1.4.5.2 Synthesis needs 87

1.4.5.3 Exchange platforms 88

1.4.6 Conclusions 88

References 90

PART TWO: POLICY SETTINGS 91

2.1 When Science Meets Policy: Enhancing Governance and Management of Disaster Risks 93
Demetrio Innocenti

2.1.1 Science and disaster risk management 93

2.1.2 Knowledge-based policy 95

2.1.3 The science–policy interface in practice 96

2.1.4 Evidence-based disaster risk policies 99

2.1.5 Climate research and disaster economics: Two scientific pillars of governance of disaster risks 102

2.1.6 Conclusions 104

References 106

2.2 Hydrometeorological Extremes and the Science–policy Interface: IPCC 109
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

2.2.1 Introduction 109

2.2.2 IPCC at the interface of science and policy 110

2.2.3 Evolution of IPCC over 25 years 112

2.2.4 IPCC SREX messages in a nutshell 114

2.2.4.1 Observations 117

2.2.4.2 Projections 118

2.2.4.3 Managing the risk of hydrometeorological extremes 120

2.2.5 Final remarks – AR5 is there 120

Acknowledgements 121

References 121

2.3 A Snapshot of EU and International Policies Relevant to Hydrometeorological Events 123
Philippe Quevauviller

2.3.1 Introduction – A complex policy framework 123

2.3.2 Climate change impacts on water 124

2.3.3 Policy background 125

2.3.4 International policies 126

2.3.5 EU water policies 129

2.3.5.1 The water framework directive 129

2.3.5.2 WFD and climate change 130

2.3.5.3 The flood directive 132

2.3.5.4 The communication on drought 132

2.3.6 Climate adaptation strategy 133

2.3.7 Conclusions 134

References 135

PART THREE: OUTLINE OF SCIENTIFIC FEATURES 137

3.1 Hydroinformatics and Its Role in Flood Management 139
Philippe Gourbesville

3.1.1 Background 139

3.1.2 Flood management in water-related activities 139

3.1.3 Why hydroinformatics? 142

3.1.4 Towards integrated flood management 144

3.1.5 Hydroinformatics and floods 146

3.1.6 Flood maps production 148

3.1.6.1 Producing the hydrograph 149

3.1.6.2 Hydraulic models 150

3.1.6.3 Parameter estimation in one-dimensional flow models 152

3.1.6.4 Parameter estimation in two-dimensional flow models 153

3.1.6.5 Validation of results 154

3.1.7 Real-time systems for decisions support 156

3.1.8 Emerging trends for higher efficiency 159

3.1.9 High resolution data and high resolution hydraulic modelling 159

3.1.10 From centralised to distributed and ubiquitous architecture 163

3.1.11 Perspectives in conclusion 167

Acknowledgement 167

References 167

3.2 Drought: How to be Prepared for the Hazard? 171
Henny A.J. Van Lanen

3.2.1 Introduction 171

3.2.2 Drought: Generating processes and identification 173

3.2.3 Trends in drought 177

3.2.3.1 Trends in observed drought 177

3.2.3.2 Trends in simulated historic drought 178

3.2.3.3 Future drought 181

3.2.4 Monitoring, management and early warning 189

3.2.5 Drought impacts and policy 191

Acknowledgements 196

References 196

3.3 Drought in the Light of Climate Change in the Mediterranean Area 203
Ana Iglesias and Luis Garrote

3.3.1 Introduction 203

3.3.2 The limits of rainfall 204

3.3.2.1 Drought and water scarcity: Overlapping challenges in the region 204

3.3.3 Estimating drought vulnerability 208

3.3.3.1 Underlying causes of drought risk 208

3.3.3.2 A drought vulnerability index 211

3.3.4 From drought vulnerability to drought management 213

3.3.4.1 Policies, actions and examples 213

3.3.4.2 Linking indicators to drought management actions 214

3.3.5 Looking into the future 216

3.3.5.1 Climate change scenarios 216

3.3.5.2 Higher drought risk 217

3.3.5.3 Changes in water availability 218

3.3.5.4 Climate change as an opportunity to revise drought management 218

3.3.5.5 Conservation-oriented policies 220

3.3.6 Conclusions 222

Acknowledgements 223

References 223

3.4 Prediction of Storm Impacts on Beach and Dune Systems 227
Paolo Ciavola, Oscar Ferreira, Ap Van Dongeren, Jaap Van Thiel de Vries, Clara Armaroli and Mitchell Harley

3.4.1 Introduction 227

3.4.2 Coastal storm definitions 228

3.4.2.1 Meteorological approaches to assessing coastal storm severity 229

3.4.2.2 Engineering approaches to assessing coastal storm severity 231

3.4.3 The storm impact scale 231

3.4.3.1 Swash regime 232

3.4.3.2 Collision regime 233

3.4.3.3 Overwash regime 233

3.4.3.4 Inundation regime 234

3.4.4 Analytical methods of hazard definition 234

3.4.5 Modelling of storm impacts 237

3.4.5.1 Models based on the equilibrium profile theory 238

3.4.5.2 Process-based models 239

3.4.6 Storm impact indicators, early warning systems and disaster risk reduction 242

3.4.7 Conclusions 245

Acknowledgements 246

References 246

PART FOUR: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS 253

4.1 Assessing the Costs of Natural Hazards – State of the Art and the Way Forward 255
Volker Meyer, Reimund Schwarze, Nina Becker, Vasileios Markantonis, Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, Laurens M. Bouwer, Philip Bubeck, Paolo Ciavola, Elisabetta Genovese, Colin Green, Stephane Hallegatte, Heidi Kreibich, Quentin Lequeux, Ivana Logar, Elissaios Papyrakis, Clemens Pfurtscheller, Jennifer Poussin, Valentin Przyluski, Annegret H. Thieken and Christophe Viavattene

4.1.1 Introduction 256

4.1.2 State of the art of cost assessment for natural hazards – An overview 260

4.1.2.1 Direct costs 261

4.1.2.2 Business interruption costs 265

4.1.2.3 Indirect costs 267

4.1.2.4 Intangible (non-market) costs 270

4.1.2.5 Risk mitigation costs 273

4.1.3 Conclusions and the way forward 277

References 282

4.2 Resilience and Adaptation to Hydrometeorological Hazards 291
Hugh Deeming, Maureen Fordham and Åsa Gerger Swartling

4.2.1 Introduction 291

4.2.2 Resilience 292

4.2.2.1 Psychological approaches to resilience 292

4.2.2.2 Social-ecological systems (SES) 293

4.2.2.3 Organisations and infrastructure 295

4.2.3 Discussion 297

4.2.3.1 Community 301

4.2.3.2 Adaptation 303

4.2.3.3 Resilience to hydrometeorological extremes 305

4.2.3.4 The sustainable livelihoods approach (SLA) 305

4.2.3.5 Pilot study location and event: Cockermouth, Cumbria, UK 307

4.2.3.6 Comparison of two small businesses in Cockermouth, Cumbria 307

4.2.4 Conclusions 309

Acknowledgements 309

References 309

PART FIVE: CONCLUSIONS 317

5 Conclusions, Outlook 319
Philippe Quevauviller

5.1 Contextual developments 319

5.2 Scientific developments 320

5.3 Outlook 320

5.3.1 Strengths 320

5.3.2 Weaknesses 320

5.3.3 Threats 321

5.3.4 Opportunities 321

Index 323

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