Industries without Smokestacks Industrialization in Africa Reconsidered

By 2030 more than three quarters of the world's absolute poor are projected to live in Africa. Accelerating economic growth is key to rising incomes on the continent, and central to this challenge is establishing activities that are capable of employing large numbers of unskilled workers, that can raise productivity through innovation, and that can power growth through exports. Such structural transformation is a key driver of growth, and between 1950-1996 about half of the economic catch-up by developing countries (led by East Asia) was due to rising productivity in manufacturing combined with growing agricultural output. Africa, however, has lagged behind.

In 2014, the average share of manufacturing in GDP in sub-Saharan Africa hovered around 10 per cent, unchanged from the 1970s, leading some observers to be pessimistic about Africa's potential to catch the wave of sustained rapid growth and rising incomes. Industries Without Smokestacks: Industrialization in Africa Reconsidered challenges this view. It argues that other activities sharing the characteristics of manufacturing- including tourism, ICT, and other services as well as food processing and horticulture- are beginning to play a role analogous to that played by manufacturing in East Asia. This reflects not only changes in the global organization of industries since the early era of rapid East Asian growth, but also advantages unique to Africa. These 'industries without smokestacks' offer new opportunities for Africa to grow in coming decades.

Richard Newfarmer, Country Director, International Growth Centre (London School of Economics and Oxford University, UK,John Page, Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, The Brookings Institution, USA,Finn Tarp, Director, UNU-WIDER, Finland

Richard Newfarmer is Country Director for Rwanda and Uganda at the International Growth Centre (a joint venture of Oxford University and the London School of Economics). He a Member of the Advisory Board for the WTO Chairs Program, and consults with international organizations, including the World Bank, the OECD, and the International Trade Centre. He was the World Bank's Special Representative to the World Trade Organization, and served as a lead economist in Latin America, East Asia, and the research department. He has authored numerous articles and books on trade and foreign investment, recently co-authoring Trade in Zimbabwe, and Trade and Employment in a Fast Changing World for the OECD.

John Page is a Senior Fellow in the Global Economy and Development Program at the Brookings Institution and a Non-resident Senior Fellow of the UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER). He is also visiting professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan and a Research Associate of the Centre for the Study of African Economies at Oxford University. From 1980 to 2008 he was at the World Bank where his senior positions included: Director, Poverty Reduction, Director, Economic Policy, and Chief Economist, Africa. He is the author of several books and more than 100 published papers on economic development.

Finn Tarp is Director of UNU-WIDER and Professor of Development Economics at the University of Copenhagen. He has some 38 years of experience in academic and applied development economics research, teaching and policy analysis; and his field experience covers more than 20 years of in-country assignments in 35 countries across the developing world, including many years of work in Viet Nam. Finn Tarp has published widely in leading international academic journals alongside a series of books, and he is a member of the World Bank Chief Economist's Council of Eminent Persons. He has been awarded Vietnamese Government Medals of Honour for 'Support to the Planning and Investment System' and the 'Cause of Science and Technology'.

1. Industries without smokestacks and structural transformation in Africa: overview, Richard Newfarmer, John Page, and Finn Tarp
2. New technologies create opportunities, Sally Murray
3. Telecommunication and ICT-based services trade, Claudio R. Frischtak
4. Tourism global value chains and Africa, Jack Daly and Gary Gereffi
5. Agro-processing and horticultural exports from Africa, Emiko Fukase and Will Martin
6. Air transport in Africa: A portrait of capacity and competition in various market segments, Heinrich C. Bofinger
7. How trucking services have improved and may contribute to economic development: the case of East Africa, Charles Kunaka, Gael Raballand, and Mike Fitzmaurice
8. Trade in services: opening markets to create opportunities, Bernard Hoekman
9. Implications for Ethiopia's industrialization, Mulu Gebreeyesus
10. The agro-processing industry and its potential for structural transformation of the Ghanaian economy, Nkechi S. Owoo and Monica P. Lambon-Quayefio
11. Prospects for information and communications technology-enabled services in Kenya: the case of the mobile money transfer industry, Dianah Ngui Muchai and Peter Kimuyu
12. Industries without smokestacks: Mozambique country case study, Antonio S. Cruz and Fausto J. Mafambissa
13. Senegal: a service economy in need of an export boost, E. Philip English
14. Understanding and characterizing the services sector in South Africa: an overview, Haroon Bhorat, Christopher Rooney, and Francois Steenkamp
15. Employment and productivity growth in Tanzania's service sector, Mia Ellis, Margaret McMillan, and Jed Silver
16. Rwanda: From devastation to services-first transformation, Kasim Ggombe and Richard Newfarmer
17. Industries without smokestacks in Uganda and Rwanda, John Spray and Sebastian Wolf
18. Regional opportunities in East Africa, Stephen Karingi, Ottavia Pesce, and Lily Sommer
19. Integration along the Abuja road map: a progress report, Jaime de Melo, Mariem Nouar, and Jean-Marc Solleder
20. Widening the options: implications for public policy, Richard Newfarmer, John Page, and Finn Tarp