Japan and Ballistic Missile Defense

Spurred by a perceived growing ballisic missile threat from within the Asia-Pacific region and requests from the U.S. to support research and development on components of a missile defense system, the Japanese government decided in late 1998 and early 99 to move forward with joint research and development with the U.S. on ballistic missile defense. This book explores both the benefits and potential problems of deploying a BMD system in Japan.

Preface

iii

Tables and Map

vii

Summary

ix

Acknowledgments

xxi

Acronyms

xxiii

Introduction

1

(10)

The Growing Importance of Ballistic Missile Defense

1

(3)

The Relevance of BMD Systems to Japan

4

(4)

Potential Benefits

4

(3)

Potential Problems

7

(1)

Purpose of the Study

8

(1)

Structure of the Study

9

(2)

Motivations and Responses

11

(30)

The Threat

11

(8)

North Korea

11

(3)

China

14

(3)

Russia

17

(1)

Other Threats

18

(1)

The Role of the U.S. Government

19

(4)

Japanese Options

23

(6)

Offensive Measures

24

(1)

Passive Defense Measures

24

(1)

Active Defense Measures

25

(4)

Japanese Actions, Current Policy, and Next Steps

29

(12)

Internal Japanese Studies

29

(3)

Formal Agencies

32

(2)

U.S.-Japanese Research Cooperation

34

(2)

Acquisition Decisions

36

(5)

Domestic Factors Determining Future Decisions

41

(44)

The Major Players

41

(22)

The Prime Minister and the Cabinet

42

(3)

The Japan Defense Agency and the Self-Defense Forces

45

(4)

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs

49

(3)

The Ministry of Finance

52

(1)

The Diet

53

(3)

The Political Parties

56

(4)

The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and Private Business

60

(1)

The Public and the Media

61

(2)

Major Issue Areas

63

(22)

U.S.-Japan Alliance Maintenance

63

(3)

Financial Constraints

66

(4)

Legal Considerations

70

(3)

Technical/Military Feasibility and Architecture Issues

73

(3)

Industrial and Commercial Considerations

76

(2)

The China Factor

78

(7)

Conclusions and Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

85

(10)

Possible Timetable

89

(3)

Critical Issues

92

(3)

Bibliography

95

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Japan and Ballistic Missile Defense

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials