The Keys to the White House A Surefire Guide

Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.

Introduction

vii

Logic of the Keys: How Presidential Elections Really Work

1

(18)

Turning the Keys to the Presidency

19

(30)

Civil War and Reconstruction

49

(16)

The Gilded Age

65

(16)

Rise and Fall of Progressivism

81

(18)

Depression, War, and Cold War

99

(24)

New Directions, War, and Scandal

123

(20)

Reagan and Beyond

143

(16)

A False Dawn for Democrats

159

(18)

Lessons of the Keys: Toward a New Presidential Politics

177

(8)

Notes

185

(6)

Index

191

(8)

About the Author

199

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The Keys to the White House A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials