The Logic of Scientific Discovery

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ISBN: 9780415278447 | 0415278449
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 3/29/2002

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When first published in 1959, this book revolutionized contemporary thinking about science and knowledge. It remains the one of the most widely read books about science to come out of the twentieth century.

Translators' Note

xii

Preface to the First Edition, 1934

Preface to the First English Edition, 1959

xviii

PART I Introduction to the Logic of Science

A Survey of Some Fundamental Problems

(24)

The Problem of Induction

Elimination of Psychologism

Deductive Testing of Theories

The Problem of Demarcation

Experience as a Method

Falsifiability as a Criterion of Demarcation

The Problem of the `Empirical Basis'

Scientific Objectivity and Subjective Conviction

On the Problem of a Theory of Scientific Method

(10)

Why Methodological Decisions are Indispensable

The Naturalistic Approach to the Theory of Method

Methodological Rules as Conventions

PART II Some Structural Components of a Theory of Experience

Theories

(20)

Causality, Explanation, and the Deduction of Predictions

Strict and Numerical Universality

Universal Concepts and Individual Concepts

Strictly Universal and Existential Statements

Theoretical Systems

Some Possibilities of Interpreting a System of Axioms

Levels of Universality. The Modus Tollens

Falsifiability

(17)

Some Conventionalist Objections

Methodological Rules

Logical Investigation of Falsifiability

Falsifiability and Falsification

Occurrences and Events

Falsifiability and Consistency

The Problem of the Empirical Basis

(21)

Perceptual Experiences as Empirical Basis: Psychologism

Concerning the So-Called `Protocol Sentences'

The Objectivity of the Empirical Basis

Basic Statements

The Relativity of Basic Statements. Resolution of Fries's Trilemma

Theory and Experiment

Degrees of Testability

(26)

A Programme and an Illustration

How are Classes of Potential Falsifiers to be Compared?

Degrees of Falsifiability Compared by Means of the Subclass Relation

The Structure of the Subclass Relation. Logical Probability

Empirical Content, Entailment, and Degrees of Falsifiability

Levels of Universality and Degrees of Precision

Logical Ranges. Notes on the Theory of Measurement

Degrees of Testability Compared by Reference to Dimensions

The Dimension of a Set of Curves

Two Ways of Reducing the Number of Dimensions of a Set of Curves

Simplicity

121

(12)

Elimination of the Aesthetic and the Pragmatic Concepts of Simplicity

The Methodological Problem of Simplicity

Simplicity and Degree of Falsifiability

Geometrical Shape and Functional Form

The Simplicity of Euclidean Geometry

Conventionalism and the Concept of Simplicity

Probability

133

(76)

The Problem of Interpreting Probability Statements

Subjective and Objective Interpretations

The Fundamental Problem of the Theory of Chance

The Frequency Theory of von Mises

Plan for a New Theory of probability

Relative Frequency within a Finite Class

Selection, Independence, Insensitiveness, Irrelevance

Finite Sequences. Ordinal Selection and Neighbourhood Selection

n-Freedom in Finite Sequences

Sequences of Segments. The First Form of the Binomial Formula

Infinite Sequences. Hypothetical Estimates of Frequency

An Examination of the Axiom of Randomness

Chance-Like Sequences. Objective Probability

Bernoulli's Problem

The Law of Great Numbers (Bernoulli's Theorem)

Bernoulli's Theorem and the Interpretation of Probability Statements

Bernoulli's Theorem and the Problem of Convergence

Elimination of the Axiom of Convergence. Solution of the 'Fundamental Problem of the Theory of Chance'

The Problem of Decidability

The Logical Form of Probability Statements

A Probabilistic System of Speculative Metaphysics

Probability in Physics

Law and Chance

The Deducibility of Macro Laws from Micro Laws

Formally Singular Probability Statements

The Theory of Range

Some Observations on Quantum Theory

209

(39)

Heisenberg's Programme and the Uncertainty Relations

A Brief Outline of the Statistical Interpretation of Quantum Theory

A Statistical Re-Interpretation of the Uncertainty Formulae

An Attempt to Eliminate Metaphysical Elements by Inverting Heisenberg's Programme; with Applications Decisive Experiments

Decisive Experiments

Indeterminist Metaphysics

Corroboration, or How a Theory Stands up to Tests

248

(241)

Concerning the So-Called Verification of Hypotheses

The Probability of a Hypothesis and the Probability of Events: Criticism of Probability Logic

Inductive Logic and Probability Logic

The Positive Theory of Corroboration: How a Hypothesis may `Prove its Mettle'

Corroborability, Testability, and Logical Probability

Remarks Concerning the Use of the Concepts 'True' and `Corroborated'

The Path of Science

APPENDICES

i Definition of the Dimension of a Theory

283

(3)

ii The General Calculus of Frequency in Finite Classes

286

(4)

iii Derivation of the First Form of the Binomial Formula

290

(3)

iv A Method of Constructing Models of Random Sequences

293

(4)

v Examination of an Objection. The Two-Slit Experiment

297

(4)

vi Concerning a Non-Predictive Procedure of Measuring

301

(4)

vii Remarks Concerning an Imaginary Experiment

305

(7)

NEW APPENDICES

i Two Notes on Induction and Demarcation 1933-1934

312

(7)

ii A Note on Probability, 1938

319

(6)

iii On the Heuristic Use of the Classical Definition of Probability

325

(4)

iv The Formal Theory of probability

329

(27)

v Derivations in the Formal Theory of probability

356

(13)

vi On Objective Disorder or Randomness

369

(5)

vii Zero Probability and the Fine-Structure of Probability and of Content

374

(18)

viii Content, Simplicity, and Dimension

392

(10)

ix Corroboration, the Weight of Evidence, and Statistical Tests

402

(38)

x Universals, Dispositions, and Natural or Physical Necessity

440

(24)

xi On the Use and Misuse of Imaginary Experiments, Especially in Quantum Theory

464

(17)

xii The Experiment of Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen. A Letter from Albert Einstein, 1935

481

(8)

INDICES

Dr. J. Agassi

Name Index

489

(5)

Subject Index

494

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The Logic of Scientific Discovery

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