Low-Carbon Development for Mexico

To reduce the risk of climate change impacts it is necessary for the world to lower the carbon intensity of economic development. 'Low-Carbon Development for Mexico' estimates the net costs, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, and investment that would be needed to achieve a low-carbon scenario in Mexico to the year 2030.Among the key findings of the study are the following: #xE2;#xAC;#xA2; Energy efficiency. Improving energy end-use efficiency in the industrial, residential, and public sectors is the least-cost option for reducing carbon emissions and can be achieved by accelerating current Mexican programs and policies. #xE2;#xAC;#xA2; Supply efficiency and renewable energy. Mexico can lower the carbon intensity of the economy by improving the efficiency of energy supply in the electric power and petroleum industries, and by expanding the adoption of renewable energy technologies such as wind, biomass, small hydro, and geothermal. #xE2;#xAC;#xA2; Public transport and vehicle fleet efficiency. Transport is the largest and fastest growing contributor of GHG emissions in Mexico, the majority of which comes from road transport. The greatest potential for reducing transport emissions lies with improving the quality and efficiency of urban transport, including more efficient vehicles and the design and organization of cities and public transport systems. #xE2;#xAC;#xA2; Forestry #xE2;#xAC;#x1C; significant potential with large co-benefits. Measures to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), along with afforestation and commercial plantations, are among the largest GHG mitigation options in Mexico, and could provide numerous social and environmental benefits in rural areas. #xE2;#xAC;#xA2; By undertaking a limited number of low-carbon interventions that are technologically and financially viable today, Mexico could hold carbon emissions relatively constant over the coming two decades while maintaining a vigorous rate of economic and social development. The costs of such a program would be relatively modest, but would require a range of regulatory and institutional changes to achieve, especially in the energy and transport sectors.

Preface	p. ix
About the Authors	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xv
Abbreviations	p. xvii
Overview	p. 1
Benefit of Moving to a Low-Carbon Economy	p. 1
Mitigation Options, by Sector	p. 2
Emissions Reductions Associated with a Low-Carbon Scenario	p. 6
Elements of a Low-Carbon Program	p. 7
Introduction	p. 11
Objective of the Study	p. 11
Strategic Significance to Mexico of Low-Carbon Development	p. 13
Greenhouse Gas Emission in Mexico	p. 15
Mexico's Climate Change Actions	p. 17
Overview of the Sector Analysis and Structure of the Report	p. 18
Electric Power	p. 23
The Baseline Scenario	p. 25
The MEDEC Low-Carbon Scenario	p. 27
Barriers to Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions	p. 30
Conclusions	p. 31
Oil and Gas	p. 35
The Baseline Scenario	p. 37
The MEDEC Low-Carbon Scenario	p. 38
Barriers to Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions	p. 41
Conclusions	p. 43
Energy End-Use	p. 45
The Baseline Scenario	p. 46
The MEDEC Low-Carbon Scenario	p. 51
Barriers to Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions	p. 55
Conclusions	p. 59
Transport	p. 63
The Baseline Scenario	p. 64
The MEDEC Low-Carbon Scenario	p. 66
Barriers to Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emission	p. 79
Conclusions	p. 71
Agriculture and Forestry	p. 73
The Baseline Scenario	p. 74
The MEDEC Low-Carbon Scenario	p. 74
Barriers to Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions	p. 79
Conclusions	p. 81
A Low-Carbon Scenario for Mexico	p. 83
The Carbon Path under the Baseline Scenario	p. 83
The MEDEC Alternative Low-Carbon Path	p. 85
The Net Costs (Benefits) of Emissions Reduction	p. 87
Macroeconomic Impact of MEDEC Intervention	p. 89
Elements of a Low-Carbon Development Program	p. 93
High-Priority Areas	p. 93
"Feasibility" and Barriers to Implementation	p. 94
Financing Low-Carbon Interventions	p. 97
Policies for Low-Carbon Development	p. 99
The Importance of Co-Benefits	p. 100
Near-Term Actions	p. 102
International Support	p. 103
Appendixes
Summary of MEDEC Interventions	p. 107
Summary of Benefit-Cost Analysis Methodology	p. 109
Intervention Assumptions	p. 113
Bibliography	p. 143
Index	p. 149
Boxes
Cost-Benefit Analysis Methodology	p. 12
Criteria for Selecting Interventions	p. 20
Financing Pemex Infrastructure Projects with High Environmental Benefits	p. 42
Reducing Emissions, Saving Time, and Providing Health Benefits through Improved Cookstoves	p. 53
Underpricing Electricity through Residential Subsidies	p. 58
More Time and Better Health: Co-Benefits of Reducing Emissions in the Transport Sector	p. 69
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Low-Carbon Development for Mexico

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