Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons

Pakistan is a vitally important country in the contemporary global political system. It is a de facto nuclear state, and a pivotal country in the War on Terror. This book provides a comprehensive study of a nuclear-armed Pakistan, investigating the implications of its emergence as a nuclear weapons state. Setting out the historical background of Pakistani nuclear development, the book examines the lessons for proliferation that can be drawn from the Pakistan case. It explains the changes and continuities of Pakistan'¬"s nuclear policy, assessing its emerging force posture and the implications for Pakistani, South Asian and global security. It also considers the extent to which Pakistan can be said to have a nuclear doctrine, the Pakistani nuclear command and control system, and the relationship between Pakistan and the Non-Proliferation regime. Addressing the issue of whether Pakistan should be viewed as a proliferator, and the implications of a nuclear Pakistan for global terrorism, Pakistan'¬"sNuclear Weaponsis an important study of all the major issues surrounding Pakistan'¬"s emergence as a nuclear power.

List of illustrations	p. x
Acknowledgements	p. xi
List of abbreviations	p. xiii
Pakistan's nuclear evolution: a chronology	p. xv
Introduction	p. 1
The second nuclear age	p. 1
'How to Deter?': deterrence dilemmas in the second nuclear age	p. 3
The study: objectives and structure	p. 6
Significance of the study	p. 7
Pakistan's Nuclearization Process: Proliferation Lessons and the Rise of the Second Nuclear Age	p. 9
1954-71	p. 10
The origins of Pakistan's nuclear programme	p. 11
India's nuclear activities and transformation of nuclear perception in Pakistan	p. 13
The 1965 Indo-Pakistani war and Pakistan's nuclear thinking	p. 16
Importance of the 1968 NPT decision	p. 16
Popular nuclear discourse, the 1970 general elections, and the nuclear issue	p. 17
1971-89	p. 18
The 1971 Bangladesh war: break-up of Pakistan and its strategic consequences	p. 19
Bhutto's preliminary - yet crucial - nuclear initiatives	p. 20
India's 1974 'Peaceful Nuclear Explosion' and Pakistan	p. 21
Diplomatic offensive and quest for a security guarantee	p. 22
Bhutto's accelerated quest for nuclear weapons capability	p. 24
Zia takes over: his initial difficulties	p. 25
The USSR's Afghan occupation and its impact on Pakistan's nuclear programme	p. 26
Regional nuclear dynamics in the 1980s and Pakistan's nuclear posture	p. 28
1990-98	p. 31
Post-Cold war international environment and Pakistan	p. 31
The 1990 Kashmir crisis	p. 32
Pakistan's increasingly assertive nuclear posture	p. 34
The 1995 NPT renewal	p. 35
The 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty	p. 36
The inevitable 'Tit-for-Tat'	p. 36
Lessons	p. 37
Pakistan's Emerging Nuclear Posture and Doctrinal Contemplation	p. 39
Pre-tests nuclear posture, doctrinal, and command and control issues	p. 40
Factors affecting Pakistan's evolving nuclear posture	p. 43
The perception of the Indian threat	p. 44
External pressure	p. 44
Domestic political dynamics and resource availability	p. 46
Post-tests nuclear posture and doctrinal development	p. 47
Indo-centric minimum nuclear deterrence	p. 47
Principle of massive retaliation	p. 51
Policy of nuclear first-use	p. 52
Counter-value nuclear targeting	p. 55
Conclusion	p. 56
Pakistan's Nuclear Deterrent: Force Level and Missile Capabilities	p. 58
Current level of nuclear warheads	p. 58
Nuclear delivery systems	p. 61
Aircraft	p. 61
Missile systems: current capabilities and politics of acquisition	p. 62
Dynamics of Pakistan's missile capability build-up: origins and its evolution	p. 66
Conclusion	p. 72
Command and Control System	p. 73
Background	p. 74
The National Command Authority	p. 75
Assessing the Pakistani command and control system	p. 77
Conclusion	p. 80
Pakistan and the Global Non-proliferation Regime	p. 81
Overview	p. 82
The Non-Proliferation Treaty	p. 83
NPT negotiations 1965-68: Pakistani stance	p. 84
Changes and continuity in the Pakistani NPT policy 1970-98	p. 86
1995 NPT renewal and extension, and the NPT debate in Pakistan	p. 88
The 1998 nuclear tests and their aftermath: Pakistan's demand for NWS status	p. 89
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty	p. 90
Pre-1996 nuclear test ban policy	p. 91
CTBT negotiations 1994-96	p. 92
The May 1998 nuclear tests and their aftermath	p. 95
The International Atomic Energy Agency	p. 98
Conclusion	p. 102
Proliferation Control Challenges, Nuclear Terrorism, and Pakistan	p. 104
Proliferation control challenges in the second nuclear age	p. 106
The Khan network	p. 107
Origins of the network	p. 107
Cases	p. 108
Explaining the Pakistani challenges	p. 121
Pakistan and nuclear terrorism in the new era	p. 124
Conclusion: implications of the Pakistani case	p. 125
Summary and Conclusion	p. 127
Summary	p. 127
Future of nuclear-armed Pakistan	p. 131
Notes	p. 134
Bibliography	p. 166
Government and nfficial publications	p. 166
Articles and books	p. 168
Periodicals	p. 181
Other sources	p. 181
Index	p. 182
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Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons

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