Perception, Politics and Security in South

This book provides a detailed examination of the compound crisis between India and Pakistan that brought the region to the brink of a nuclear war in 1990 and places the crisis in the context of concurrent international events.

Acknowledgments

ix

Introduction

1

(1)

Compound and complex crises

2

(2)

After the crisis

4

(1)

An overview

5

(4)

The strategic context

9

(12)

The Soviets and the major non-regional powers

10

(2)

China

12

(1)

The United States

12

(2)

The subcontinental powers: India

14

(2)

Pakistan's unsure status

16

(1)

A world in tumult

17

(1)

Proliferation: once again, a cause

18

(2)

Global events and the 1990 crisis

20

(1)

A region in turmoil on the eve of crisis

21

(13)

Democratic instability: ``no good deed goes unpunished''

21

(1)

India

22

(5)

Pakistan

27

(5)

A deteriorating political environment

32

(2)

Kashmir: from Simla to chaos

34

(31)

The origins of the Kashmir conflict

36

(3)

The diplomatic record

39

(1)

The Second Kashmir War

40

(1)

The Simla Agreement

41

(1)

Kashmir recedes

42

(1)

The onset of crisis

43

(2)

1984--1988

45

(8)

Crisis and war aversion: Wular and Siachin

53

(4)

Explaining the Kashmir crisis

57

(4)

In search of an explanation

61

(4)

From domestic insurgency to international concern

65

(31)

Kashmir on the boil

65

(2)

Pakistan's varied responses

67

(3)

Yaqub: the ambiguous emissary

70

(4)

The war of words escalates

74

(2)

Pakistan responds

76

(1)

Tottering governments

77

(2)

The military crisis

79

(1)

Zarb-i-Momin and Brasstacks

80

(4)

Mahajan

84

(2)

Military movements

86

(4)

Outside involvement

90

(2)

The pressure increases

92

(2)

Diplomacy, or heightened crisis?

94

(2)

America's deepening engagement

96

(19)

A course of action

98

(1)

Prospects for American intervention

99

(2)

The Gates mission

101

(1)

The mission in Islamabad

102

(3)

The mission in New Delhi

105

(2)

Consequences

107

(2)

The Gates mission: an evaluation

109

(3)

Other countries

112

(1)

America's role: a preliminary assessment

112

(3)

1990 as a nuclear crisis

115

(22)

The history of regional nuclearization

116

(2)

Were there nuclear weapons?

118

(3)

Nuclear weapons in Indian and Pakistani strategy

121

(3)

The injection of nuclear weapons into the crisis

124

(2)

The Hersh account and its consequences

126

(8)

The nuclear issue and the crisis

134

(1)

Nuclear lessons

134

(3)

Lessons for the real world

137

(10)

Major conclusions

138

(4)

How real was the threat of war?

142

(2)

Toward the future

144

(3)

Notes

147

(22)

Index

169

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Perception, Politics and Security in South Asia: The Compound Crisis of 1990

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials