Population Dilemmas in the Middle East

For over a generation, demographic developments have had a crucial bearing on the economic, social and political situation in a number of Middle Eastern countries. Two societies in particular, the Palestinian and the Egyptian, have seen the weft and warp of their fabric significantly affected by natural increase and migration. This study provides a general outline of Palestinian population growth between 1948 and 1987 and then focuses on the town of Nablus for a detailed analysis of the main aspects of Palestinian migration and high rates of natural increase. The author shows how the recession that struck the Arab oil economies in the early 1980s, by slowing down the migratory movement, shut off the valve that had afforded the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza relief from economic pressures. He also analyses how Jordan, in coping with the resulting demographic and economic pressures, adopted an antinatalist policy despite powerful political and social forces working against such a programme.

Gad G. Gilbar is Professor of Middle Eastern History at the University of Haifa, and Senior Research Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University.