Risk Assessment Theory, Methods, and Applications

Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications

Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today.

The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. 

• Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis
• Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis
• Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis
• Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management
• Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms
• Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual

Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

MARVIN RAUSAND, is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway, and author of System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications and Reliability of Safety-Critical Systems: Theory and Applications, both published by Wiley.

STEIN HAUGEN, PHD, is Professor in the Department of Marine Technology at Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway.

Preface xiii

Acknowledgments xvii

About the Companion Site xix

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Risk in Our Modern Society 1

1.2 Important Trends 2

1.3 Major Accidents 4

1.4 History of Risk Assessment 4

1.5 Applications of Risk Assessment 9

1.6 Objectives, Scope, and Delimitation 11

1.7 Problems 12

References 13

2 The Words of Risk Analysis 15

2.1 Introduction 15

2.2 Risk 16

2.3 What Can Go Wrong? 20

2.4 What is the Likelihood? 38

2.5 What are the Consequences? 44

2.6 Additional Terms 49

2.7 Problems 54

References 56

3 Main Elements of Risk Assessment 59

3.1 Introduction 59

3.2 Risk Assessment Process 60

3.3 Risk Assessment Report 76

3.4 Risk Assessment in Safety Legislation 81

3.5 Validity and Quality Aspects of a Risk Assessment 82

3.6 Problems 83

References 84

4 Study Object and Limitations 87

4.1 Introduction 87

4.2 Study Object 87

4.3 Operating Context 91

4.4 System Modeling and Analysis 92

4.5 Complexity 95

4.6 Problems 97

References 98

5 Risk Acceptance 99

5.1 Introduction 99

5.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria 99

5.3 Approaches to Establishing Risk Acceptance Criteria 106

5.4 Risk Acceptance Criteria for Other Assets than Humans 114

5.5 Closure 115

5.6 Problems 115

References 117

6 Measuring Risk 121

6.1 Introduction 121

6.2 Risk Metrics 121

6.3 Measuring Risk to People 123

6.4 Risk Matrices 148

6.5 Reduction in Life Expectancy 154

6.6 Choice and Use of Risk Metrics 156

6.7 Risk Metrics for Other Assets 158

6.8 Problems 159

References 163

7 Risk Management 167

7.1 Introduction 167

7.2 Scope, Context, and Criteria 170

7.3 Risk Assessment 170

7.4 Risk Treatment 171

7.5 Communication and Consultation 172

7.6 Monitoring and Review 173

7.7 Recording and Reporting 174

7.8 Stakeholders 175

7.9 Risk and Decision-Making 176

7.10 Safety Legislation 179

7.11 Problems 180

References 180

8 Accident Models 183

8.1 Introduction 183

8.2 Accident Classification 183

8.3 Accident Investigation 188

8.4 Accident Causation 188

8.5 Accident Models 190

8.6 Energy and Barrier Models 193

8.7 Sequential Accident Models 195

8.8 Epidemiological Accident Models 201

8.9 Event Causation and Sequencing Models 208

8.10 Systemic Accident Models 213

8.11 Combining Accident Models 228

8.12 Problems 229

References 230

9 Data for Risk Analysis 235

9.1 Types of Data 235

9.2 Quality and Applicability of Data 238

9.3 Data Sources 239

9.4 Expert Judgment 250

9.5 Data Dossier 254

9.6 Problems 254

References 257

10 Hazard Identification 259

10.1 Introduction 259

10.2 Checklist Methods 263

10.3 Preliminary Hazard Analysis 266

10.4 Job Safety Analysis 278

10.5 FMECA 287

10.6 HAZOP 295

10.7 STPA 306

10.8 SWIFT 316

10.9 Comparing Semiquantitative Methods 322

10.10 Master Logic Diagram 322

10.11 Change Analysis 324

10.12 Hazard Log 327

10.13 Problems 331

References 335

11 Causal and Frequency Analysis 339

11.1 Introduction 339

11.2 Cause and Effect Diagram Analysis 341

11.3 Fault Tree Analysis 344

11.4 Bayesian Networks 370

11.5 Markov Methods 384

11.6 Problems 396

References 400

12 Development of Accident Scenarios 401

12.1 Introduction 401

12.2 Event Tree Analysis 402

12.3 Event Sequence Diagrams 426

12.4 Cause–Consequence Analysis 426

12.5 Hybrid Causal Logic 428

12.6 Escalation Problems 429

12.7 Consequence Models 429

12.8 Problems 431

References 435

13 Dependent Failures and Events 437

13.1 Introduction 437

13.2 Dependent Failures and Events 437

13.3 Dependency in Accident Scenarios 439

13.4 Cascading Failures 441

13.5 Common-Cause Failures 442

13.6 𝛽-Factor Model 452

13.7 Binomial Failure Rate Model 456

13.8 Multiple Greek Letter Model 457

13.9 𝛼-Factor Model 459

13.10 Multiple 𝛽-Factor Model 461

13.11 Problems 461

References 462

14 Barriers and Barrier Analysis 465

14.1 Introduction 465

14.2 Barriers and Barrier Classification 466

14.3 Barrier Management 474

14.4 Barrier Properties 476

14.5 Safety-Instrumented Systems 477

14.6 Hazard–Barrier Matrices 487

14.7 Safety Barrier Diagrams 488

14.8 Bow-Tie Diagrams 490

14.9 Energy Flow/Barrier Analysis 490

14.10 Layer of Protection Analysis 493

14.11 Barrier and Operational Risk Analysis 502

14.12 Systematic Identification and Evaluation of Risk Reduction Measures 512

14.13 Problems 518

References 520

15 Human Reliability Analysis 525

15.1 Introduction 525

15.2 Task Analysis 536

15.3 Human Error Identification 543

15.4 HRA Methods 552

15.5 Problems 573

References 574

16 Risk Analysis and Management for Operation 579

16.1 Introduction 579

16.2 Decisions About Risk 581

16.3 Aspects of Risk to Consider 583

16.4 Risk Indicators 585

16.5 Risk Modeling 594

16.6 Operational Risk Analysis – Updating the QRA 596

16.7 MIRMAP 598

16.8 Problems 601

References 602

17 Security Assessment 605

17.1 Introduction 605

17.2 Main Elements of Security Assessment 608

17.3 Industrial Control and Safety Systems 615

17.4 Security Assessment 617

17.5 Security Assessment Methods 625

17.6 Application Areas 626

17.7 Problems 627

References 628

18 Life Cycle Use of Risk Analysis 631

18.1 Introduction 631

18.2 Phases in the Life Cycle 631

18.3 Comments Applicable to all Phases 634

18.4 Feasibility and Concept Selection 635

18.5 Preliminary Design 637

18.6 Detailed Design and Construction 639

18.7 Operation and Maintenance 641

18.8 Major Modifications 641

18.9 Decommissioning and Removal 643

18.10 Problems 643

References 643

19 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 645

19.1 Introduction 645

19.2 Uncertainty 647

19.3 Categories of Uncertainty 648

19.4 Contributors to Uncertainty 651

19.5 Uncertainty Propagation 656

19.6 Sensitivity Analysis 661

19.7 Problems 663

References 664

20 Development and Applications of Risk Assessment 667

20.1 Introduction 667

20.2 Defense and Defense Industry 668

20.3 Nuclear Power Industry 670

20.4 Process Industry 674

20.5 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry 678

20.6 Space Industry 681

20.7 Aviation 683

20.8 Railway Transport 685

20.9 Marine Transport 686

20.10 Machinery Systems 689

20.11 Food Safety 690

20.12 Other Application Areas 692

20.13 Closure 695

References 697

Appendix A Elements of Probability Theory 701

A.1 Introduction 701

A.2 Outcomes and Events 701

A.3 Probability 706

A.4 Random Variables 710

A.5 Some Specific Distributions 718

A.6 Point and Interval Estimation 728

A.7 Bayesian Approach 732

A.8 Probability of Frequency Approach 733

References 739

Appendix B Acronyms 741

Author Index 747

Subject Index 753

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