Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems

, by Edited by Janos J. Bogardi , Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

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ISBN: 9780521800365 | 0521800366
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 1/28/2002

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Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems is based on the Third George Kovacs Colloquium organized by the International Hydrological Programme (UNESCO) and the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. Thirty-five leading scientists with international reputations provide state-of-the-art reviews of topical areas of research on water resource systems, including aspects of extreme hydrological events: floods and droughts; water quantity and quality dams; reservoirs and hydraulic structures; evaluating sustainability and climate change impacts. As well as discussing essential challenges and research directions, the book will assist in applying theoretical methods to the solution of practical problems in water resources. The authors are multi-disciplinary, stemming from such areas as: hydrology, geography, civil, environmental and agricultural engineering, forestry, systems sciences, operations research, mathematics, physics and geophysics, ecology and atmospheric sciences. This review volume will be valuable for graduate students, scientists, consultants, administrators, and practising hydrologists and water managers.

List of Contributors

xiii

Introduction

(3)

Janos J. Bogardi

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21

(18)

Adrian V. Gheorghe

Introduction

(1)

Regional safety planning

(2)

On some organizational aspects

(1)

Techniques for interactive decision processes in IRRASM

(1)

The use of DSS for integrated risk assessment studies

(5)

The use of GIS technology for IRRASM

(2)

The Kovers approach

(6)

Conclusions

(1)

Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing

(8)

V. Klemes

Introduction

(1)

For practical purposes ...

(1)

Climate-change-impact scenarios: From bluffing to metabluffing

(1)

In praise of theory and robust results

(1)

A reality check

(2)

Conclusions, or a tale about unkunks, kunks, and skunks

(2)

Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar

(11)

Robert J. Moore

Introduction

(1)

Uncertainty in flood forecasts

(6)

Reliability and system complexity

(2)

Risk and ensemble forecasting

(2)

Conclusion

(1)

Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting

(6)

Roman Krzysztofowicz

Introduction

(1)

Probabilistic forecasts

(1)

Precipitation forecasting system

(1)

Stage forecasting system

(1)

Flood warning decision system

(1)

Closure

(2)

Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations

(7)

O. Gilard

Introduction

(1)

Definitions and concepts

(1)

``Inondabilite'' method

(4)

Necessity and consequences of an objective negotiation

(1)

Conclusions

(1)

Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia

(8)

Jonathan F. Thomas

Bryson C. Bates

Variability in Australia's climate and hydrology

(1)

Climate change

(1)

Urban systems

(3)

Irrigation systems

(2)

Infrastructure robustness

(1)

Conclusions

(1)

Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness

(8)

Norio Okada

Introduction

(1)

The 1994--95 drought

(1)

Measuring the ``invisibles'' of society

(2)

A contextual analysis of the drought-related social messages of newspaper articles

(1)

Analysis of the observed water saving phenomenon: Another examination of the working hypothesis

(1)

Modeling the SPRD--WSP transformational mechanism: An analogy of the water saving action using the ``tank'' model

(3)

Conclusions

(1)

Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation

(6)

W. Kinzelbach

S. Vassolo

G.-M. Li

Introduction

(1)

Problems arising in the deterministic determination of capture zones

(1)

Determination of a capture zone by Monte Carlo simulation

(1)

Results

(3)

Conclusions

(1)

Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models

(10)

Thierry Fahmy

Eric Parent

Dominique Gatel

Introduction

(1)

A new alert model

(3)

Case study description

(1)

Results

(2)

Discussion

(2)

Conclusions

(3)

Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed

(15)

Aregai Tecle

David E. Rupp

Introduction

(1)

Study site characteristics

(1)

Model development

(4)

Analysis of results

(4)

Evaluating risk and reliability in water yield

(1)

Summary and conclusions

(4)

Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems

101

(10)

Richard M. Vogel

Christopher J. Bell

Ranjith R. Suresh

Neil M. Fennessey

Introduction

101

(1)

Model time-step for regional assessment

102

(1)

Development of regional hydroclimatological streamflow model

102

(5)

Storage--reliability--resilience--yield relationships

107

(1)

Sensitivity of water supply system behavior to climate change

107

(2)

Conclusions

109

(2)

Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input

111

(11)

A. Bardossy

L. Duckstein

Introduction

111

(1)

Investigation of historical series

112

(1)

Nonstationary scenarios

113

(3)

Hydrological risks

116

(2)

An example of ecological risk analysis

118

(2)

Conclusions

120

(2)

Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty

122

(11)

Michael J. Bender

Introduction

122

(1)

Fuzzy compromise approach

123

(4)

Examples

127

(3)

Conclusions

130

(3)

System and component uncertainties in water resources

133

(10)

Ben Chie Yen

Introduction

133

(1)

Sources of uncertainties

133

(1)

Different measures of uncertainties

134

(1)

Methods for uncertainty analysis

134

(4)

Remarks on uncertainty analysis techniques

138

(1)

Analysis of relative contributions of uncertainties

139

(1)

Concluding remarks

139

(4)

Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method

143

(10)

B. J. Lence

A. Ruszczynski

Introduction

143

(1)

Elements of a water quality management model

144

(1)

A probabilistic water quality management model

144

(2)

The stochastic branch and bound method

146

(2)

Application of the stochastic branch and bound method for managing BOD discharges in the Willamette River

148

(2)

Conclusions

150

(3)

Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change

153

(9)

Bijaya P. Shrestha

Three-phase system framework

153

(1)

Risk and uncertainty

153

(1)

Hydrometeorological input and climate change

154

(1)

Modeling and simulation

155

(1)

Analysis of results

155

(2)

Uncertainty of risk analysis

157

(3)

Discussion and conclusions

160

(2)

Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice

162

(7)

Uri Shamir

Introduction

162

(5)

The role of forecasting

167

(2)

Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria

169

(12)

Daniel P. Loucks

Introduction

169

(1)

Sustainability: Some issues and challenges

169

(2)

Defining sustainability of water resources systems

171

(1)

Measuring sustainability of water resources systems

172

(7)

Final remarks

179

(2)

Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems

181

(9)

H. P. Nachtnebel

Introduction

181

(1)

Economy-based irreversibility considerations

182

(2)

Physically-based reversibility considerations

184

(2)

Reversibility in environmental management

186

(2)

Summary and conclusions

188

(2)

Future of reservoirs and their management criteria

190

(9)

Kuniyoshi Takeuchi

Introduction

190

(2)

Controlling factors of future needs of reservoirs

192

(2)

Reservoir sedimentation

194

(1)

Outlook of reservoirs in the future

195

(1)

Reliable and robust management of reservoirs

196

(1)

Conclusions

197

(2)

Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems

199

(10)

Darko Milutin

Janos J. Bogardi

Introduction

199

(1)

Case study system

200

(1)

Genetic algorithm model

201

(2)

Performance evaluation

203

(1)

Analyses and results

204

(2)

Discussion

206

(3)

Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads

209

(1)

Erich J. Plate

Introduction

209

(2)

The risk management process

211

(1)

Hazard identification

212

(1)

Risk assessment

212

(7)

Risk mitigation

219

(1)

Concluding remarks

219

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Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems

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