What Every Engineer Should Know About Risk

Explains how to assess and handle technical risk, schedule risk, and cost risk, enabling engineering professionals to anticipate failures regardless of system complexity. Introduces the concept of risk engineering for controlling technical risk through identification, analysis, design, and process management, and reveals strategies for identifying flaws in engineering designs, estimating risk, and avoiding wasting scarce resources.

John X. Wang is Six-Sigma Quality Black Belt with GE Transportation Systems, General Electric Company, Erie, Pennsylvania. Dr. Wang is a Certified Reliability Engineer under the American Society for Quality, and a member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and the American Society for Mechanical Engineers. He received the B.A. (1985) and M.S. (1987) degrees from Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, and the Ph.D. degree (1995) from the University of Maryland at College Park. Marvin L. Roush is Professor of Reliability Engineering, University of Maryland at College Park. Dr. Roush is a member of the American Society for Quality and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers' Reliability Society. He received the B.S. degree (1956) from Ottawa University, Kansas, and the Ph.D. degree (1964) from the University of Maryland at College Park.

Preface

iii

Risk Engineering -- Dealing with System Complexity and Engineering Dynamics

1

(17)

Understanding Failure Is Critical to Engineering Success

1

(3)

Risk Assessment -- Quantification of Potential Failures

4

(3)

Risk Engineering -- Converting Risk into Opportunities

7

(5)

Engineering -- A Profession of Managing Technical Risk

12

(6)

References

16

(2)

Risk Identification -- Understanding the Limits of Engineering Designs

18

(28)

The Fall of Icarus -- Limits of Engineering Design

18

(4)

Overload of Failures: Fracture and Its Mechanics

22

(5)

Wear-Out Failures: Crack Initiation and Growth

27

(6)

Environmental Impact: Temperature-Related Failure

33

(5)

Software and Related ``Hard'' Failures

38

(8)

References

45

(1)

Risk Assessment -- Extending Murphy's Law

46

(31)

Titanic: Connoisseurs of Engineering Failure

46

(4)

Risk Assessment: ``How Likely It Is That A Thing Will Go Wrong''

50

(4)

Risk Assessment for Multiple Failure Modes

54

(4)

Fault Tree Analysis: Deductive Risk Assessment

58

(11)

Event Tree Analysis: Inductive Risk Assessment

69

(3)

A Risk Example: The TMI Accident

72

(1)

An International Risk Scale

73

(4)

References

76

(1)

Design for Risk Engineering -- The Art of War Against Failures

77

(32)

Challenger: Challenging Engineering Design

77

(4)

Goal Tree: Understand ``What'' and ``How''

81

(7)

FMEA: Failure Mode and Effect Analysis

88

(9)

Redundancy and Fault Tolerance

97

(9)

References

106

(3)

Risk Acceptability -- Uncertainty in Perspective

109

(23)

Uncertainty: Why Bridges Fall Down

109

(3)

Risk Mitigation: How Buildings Stand Up

112

(4)

From Safety Factor to Safety Index

116

(6)

Converting Safety Index into Probability of Failure

122

(2)

Quantitative Safety Goals: Probability vs. Consequence

124

(4)

Risk and Benefit: Balancing the Engineering Equation

128

(4)

References

130

(2)

From Risk Engineering to Risk Management

132

(17)

Panama Canal: Recognizing and Managing Risk

132

(5)

Project Risk Assessment: Quantify Risk Triangle

137

(5)

Project Risk Control

142

(7)

References

147

(2)

Cost Risk -- Interacting with Engineering Economy

149

(28)

Engineering: The Art of Doing Well Inexpensively

149

(4)

Taguchi's Robust Design: Minimize Total Cost

153

(4)

Identify System Function and Noise Factors

157

(2)

Identify Total Cost-Function and Control Factors

159

(1)

Design Matrix of Experiments and Define Data Analysis

160

(3)

Conduct Experiments and Data Analysis

163

(4)

Prediction of Cost-Risk Under Selected Parameter Levels

167

(1)

Life-Cycle Cost Management (LCCM)

168

(9)

References

175

(2)

Schedule Risk -- Identifying and Controlling Critical Paths

177

(22)

Schedule: Deliver Engineering Products on Time

177

(3)

Critical Path: Driver of Schedule Risk

180

(3)

Find and Analyze Critical Path

183

(3)

Schedule Risk for a Single Dominant Critical Path

186

(6)

Schedule Risk for Multiple Critical Paths

192

(7)

References

197

(2)

Integrated Risk Management and Computer Simulation

199

(26)

An Integrated View of Risk

199

(2)

Integrated Risk Management

201

(7)

Incorporating the Impact of Schedule Risk

208

(4)

Monte-Carlo Simulation

212

(13)

References

222

(3)

Appendix A Risk Assessment Software

225

(10)

Appendix B Failure Mode and Effect Analysis Software

235

(14)

Index

249

What is included with this book?

The New copy of this book will include any supplemental materials advertised. Please check the title of the book to determine if it should include any access cards, study guides, lab manuals, CDs, etc.

The Used, Rental and eBook copies of this book are not guaranteed to include any supplemental materials. Typically, only the book itself is included. This is true even if the title states it includes any access cards, study guides, lab manuals, CDs, etc.

FREE SHIPPING

Amazon no longer offers textbook rentals. We do!

What Every Engineer Should Know About Risk Engineering and Management

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials