Striving for Military Stability in Europe:

This study shows that arms control agreements reflect rather than affect relations between the parties. The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) codified parity between NATO and the Soviet-led Warsaw Treaty Organization (WTO) in November 1990. CFE thus reflected the status quo at the end of the cold war, but the benefits were short lived, at least for Russia. Although still widely viewed in the west as the cornerstone of security and stability in post-Cold War Europe, from the Russian perspective CFE was soon overtaken by events. With the collapse of the WTO and the Soviet Union in 1991, it became impossible to talk of a military balance between east and west in Europe, especially as all the former WTO states opted for membership in NATO. The other state parties worked hard to adjust and adapt the treaty to meet Russian concerns about its new weakness relative to NATO, but three sets of issues complicated Russian acceptance of CFE limits. The first was NATO enlargement which, thoughnot directed against Moscow, certainly underscored Russia's weakness relative to NATO. The second was Russia's heavy handed suppression of the Chechen independence movement, begun by Boris Yeltsin in 1994, which after September 11, 2001 President Putin rationalized as part of the global war on terrorism. Putin also used 9/11 as an excuse not to withdraw troops and equipment from Georgia a commitment made by Russia when the adapted CFE Treaty was signed in Istanbul in November 1999. The third was Russian opposition to increasingly aggressive US-led military operations in the post Cold War era: in the Balkans in the 1990s and against Iraq in 2003. Russia cooperated with the operation against the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2002, but was increasingly concerned with what appeared to be permanent US military bases in central Asia.

Jane M. O. Sharp is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Defence Studies in the International Policy Institute, Kings College London.

List of illustrations

ix

Preface

xi

Acknowledgements

xiv

Acronyms

xv

PART I Background to the formal CFE negotiation

1

(34)

Arms control as a barometer of European politics

3

(12)

Introduction

3

(2)

Cold war asymmetries

5

(3)

Background to the CFE negotiation

8

(7)

Negotiating the CFE mandate

15

(20)

Introduction

15

(1)

The issue of participation

15

(3)

Defining the force categories to be limited

18

(9)

Defining the area of application

27

(2)

Associated measures

29

(3)

The importance of Mikhail Gorbachev

32

(3)

PART II Negotiating the treaty and assessing its impact

35

(48)

Formal negotiations: March 1989 to November 1990

37

(33)

Introduction

37

(1)

NATO attitudes

37

(1)

The new Soviet approach to arms control

38

(2)

Seven rounds of formal negotiations

40

(4)

Resolving the key issues

44

(25)

Conclusion

69

(1)

German singularity, nuclear modernization and the CFE-1A Agreement on personnel

70

(13)

Introduction

70

(1)

Nuclear modernization?

70

(1)

The debate on manpower at CFE 1989-90

71

(2)

The debate on German unification

73

(5)

Formal CFE-1A negotiations

78

(5)

PART III Ratification problems

83

(36)

Resolving the discrepancies in Soviet data, 1990-91

85

(13)

Introduction

85

(1)

The four areas of contention

86

(7)

General Moiseyev to the rescue

93

(5)

The dissolution of the USSR, 1991--92

98

(21)

Introduction

98

(1)

The Baltic states opt out of the CFE regime

99

(3)

The collapse of the USSR

102

(2)

From the USSR to the CIS

104

(1)

NATO's role in the reallocation of Soviet TLE

105

(1)

The High Level Working Group

105

(3)

A CIS Army or separate national armies?

108

(5)

Entry into force

113

(1)

CIS attitudes to the CFE Treaty

114

(5)

PART IV Implementation

119

(32)

Implementation of the CFE Treaty: the cup half full

121

(13)

Introduction

121

(1)

The compliance regime

121

(1)

The phases of inspection

122

(10)

Cascading: negative fall-out from the CFE reductions

132

(2)

Implementation: the cup half empty -- non-compliance with Article V

134

(17)

Introduction

134

(1)

Does rebus sic stantibus apply?

134

(1)

Negotiating the zones, 1989--90

135

(1)

Russia requests treaty revisions

136

(3)

Other Russian suggestions to solve the flank problem

139

(2)

Assessing the Russian case

141

(2)

Attitudes of the non-Russian state parties towards treaty revision

143

(4)

Searching for a compromise

147

(1)

The impact of the war in Chechnya

148

(3)

PART V The need for treaty revisions

151

(84)

Treaty revisions and NATO enlargement: concluding the Flank Agreement, 1995-97

153

(13)

Introduction

153

(1)

Russian attitudes towards NATO enlargement

153

(2)

NATO's response

155

(2)

Negotiations to revise the treaty

157

(4)

The first CFE Review Conference

161

(2)

Ratification and entry into force of the Flank Document

163

(3)

Adapting the CFE Treaty to post-cold war Europe, 1997--99

166

(25)

Introduction

166

(1)

Background to the Russian proposals

166

(1)

Negotiating the mandate for the adaptation talks

167

(2)

Hopes and fears about treaty adaptation

169

(4)

The opening NATO position

173

(2)

The Russian position

175

(1)

Closing the gap?

176

(11)

Highlights of the Agreement on Adaptation

187

(4)

Whither the Adapted CFE Treaty under President Putin?

191

(25)

Introduction

191

(1)

Putin's imperial tendency

191

(14)

Russian compliance with ACFE still problematic

205

(3)

Russia ratifies ACFE Treaty despite NATO enlargement

208

(3)

NATO ratification awaits Russian compliance with host nation consent

211

(5)

Conclusions

216

(19)

Introduction

216

(3)

Changes in Russia-Europe relations

219

(8)

Adjusting and adapting the CFE treaty

227

(2)

Confidence building aspects of the CFE regime

229

(1)

Confidence eroding aspects of the CFE regime

230

(2)

Conclusions

232

(3)

Appendix I Parity Regained

235

(3)

Appendix II Parity Lost

238

(5)

Notes

243

(38)

Index

281

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Striving for Military Stability in Europe: Negotiation, Implementation and Adaptation of the CFE Treaty

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials