Teaching About the Future

The faculty at the University of Houston's program in Futures Studies share their comprehensive, integrated approach to preparing foresight professionals and assisting others doing foresight projects. Provides an essential guide to developing classes on the future or even establishing whole degree programs.

PETER C. BISHOP is associate professor of Strategic Foresight and Director of the graduate program in Futures Studies at the University of Houston, USA. He arrived there in 2005, having taught futures studies at the Clear Lake campus since 1982. His doctorate in sociology came from Michigan State University in 1974.

ANDY HINES is lecturer and executive-in-Residence at the University of Houston's Graduate Program in Futures Studies, USA, where he graduated in 1991, and now speaks and consults through Hinesight. His futurist experience includes working inside the Kellogg Company and Dow Chemical, and consulting with Coates & Jarratt and Social Technologies.

Lists of Tables
List of Figures
Preface
Purposes
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Introducing the Future
Why Teach the Future?
The Problem of Prediction
The Future(s)
Be Prepared
Imagine the Future
Create the Future
The Tricks of Foresight
Telling Stories
Pursuing Visions
The Benefits of Foresight
Structure of the Book
PART I: UNDERSTANDING
Models of Change
Introduction
Understanding Change
What is Change?
How Much Change is There?
The Four Dimensions of Change
A Model of Change: Punctuated Equilibrium
'What can we know about the future?'
[Not] Predicting the Future
Certainty
Assumptions
Types of Futures: the Cone of Plausibility
Futures Methods
Some Definitions Around Methods
Thinking about the Future Framework
Conclusion
Resources
Systems Thinking
Introduction
History
Limits to Growth: Three Strikes!
Generalization
System Behaviours
Approach
Cybernetic Systems
Complex Adaptive Systems
Conclusion
Resources
Perspectives on the Future
Introduction
History
Empirical and Cultural
Critical
Integral
Generalization
Approach
Causal Layered Analysis
Integral Futures
Conclusion
Resources
Social Change
Introduction
History
Generalization
Explaining Social Change
Critical Assumptions
Approach
Conclusion
Resources
PART II: MAPPING
Research
Introduction
History
Generalization
Choosing a Domain
Primary Research
Secondary Research
Approach
Research Supports Framework Forecasting
Conclusion
Resources
Scanning
Introduction
History
Generalization
Why Scanning is Difficult
Approach
Identify Scanning Hits
Scan a Wide Range of Sources
Operate at Different Levels of the Domain
Keep an Eye on Wildcards
Keep Track of Your Hits
Distinguish Types of Scanning Hits
Establish Criteria for Evaluating Scanning Hits
Conclusion
Resources
Forecasting
Introduction
History
Generalization
Forecasting Theory
Approach: Framework Forecasting
Summary
Era Analysis
Baseline Forecasting
Critical Thinking
Baseline Analysis
Creativity
Alternative Futures Forecasting
Scenario Kernels
Conclusion
Resources
PART III: INFLUENCING
Leadership
Introduction
History
Era I: Traits
Era 2: Situation
Era 3: Effectiveness
Era 4: Contingency
Era 5: Shared Leadership
Era 6: Managers and Leaders
Generalization
Leadership Distinctions
Approach
Leading People into New Territory
Exploring Boundaries of the Possible
Committing to Goals They Do Not Know How to Achieve
Building Bridges When They Only Know One Side of the River
Motivating People to Do What They Don't Want to Do
Conclusion
Resources
Visioning
Introduction
History
Generalization
Attributes of a Vision
Vision Statements
Approach
Values
Background
Conclusion
Resources
Planning
Introduction
History
Generalization
Approach
Planning to Plan
Understanding the Future
Setting the Direction
Developing the Plan
Conclusion
Resources
Change Management
Introduction
History
Generalization
Establish a Sense of Urgency
Form a Powerful Guiding Coalition
. . . Is Rarely Chosen; it is Almost Always Forced by External Circumstances
. . . Always Creates Disagreements About Timing and Scope
. . . Is Always Uneven, Disorganized, Messy, Chaotic
. . . Always Politicizes Communication
. . . Always Changes the Relative Position of Groups
. . . Always Occurs One Person at a Time
. . . Is Never Fully Adopted by Force
Approach
Have a Good Reason
Be Honest about the Proces

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Teaching About the Future

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials