Testing North Korea : The Next Stage in U. S. and ROK Policy

The historic June 2000 North-South summit spawned new hopes for the future of Korea. The prospect of winding down a half-century of confrontation on the Korean peninsula seemed within the realm of possibility. north Korea's secretive leader Kim Jong Il suddenly emerged as a public figure and Pyongang rapidly established diplomatic ties with a host of America's friends in Europe and Asia. Yet as the months have passed, even if Korea has turned a page in its history, none of the basic issues of the Korea question have been resolved. A new administration in Washington faces a new set of challenges in Korea with profound implications for U.S. interests in East Asia. Tensions remain lower than at any time in recent memory, but the demilitarized zone separating North from South Korea remains the most heavily armed border on earth. North-South relations face an uncertain future, and few signs of real change inside North Korea are evident. There is growing uncertainty surrounding the direction of inter-Korean relations, the prospects for dealing with North Korea, and the likelihood for reform in Pyongyang. The task force, co-chaired by Morton I. Abramowitz and James T. Laney, argues that diplomatic gains in recent years are not irreversible. Successful implementation of the Agreed Framework between the United States and North Korea, which froze Pyongyang's known nuclear program in exchange for two light-water reactors and other economic benefits, faces considerable challenges inherited by the Bush administration. Despite eleventh-hour talks on North Korea's ballistic missile program in the waning weeks of the Clinton administration, it remains largely unconstrained. The conventional armsstandoff at the 38th parallel also continues unabated. Verification, too, persists as a key problem facing both the nuclear and missile issues.