Time Series Applications to Finance with R and S-Plus

NGAI HANG CHAN, PhD, is Head and Chair Professor of Statistics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He has published extensively in the areas of time series, statistical finance, econometrics, risk management, and stochastic processes. A Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the American Statistical Association, Dr. Chan is the coauthor of Simulation Techniques in Financial Risk Management, also published by Wiley.

List of Tables.

Preface.

Preface to the First Edition.

1 Introduction.

1.1 Basic Description.

1.2 Simple Descriptive Techniques.

1.3 Transformations.

1.4 Example.

1.5 Conclusions.

1.6 Exercises.

2 Probability Models.

2.1 Introduction.

2.2 Stochastic Processes.

2.3 Examples.

2.4 Sample Correlation Function.

2.5 Exercises.

3 Autoregressive Moving Average Models.

3.1 Introduction.

3.2 Moving Average Models.

3.3 Autoregressive Models.

3.4 ARMA Models.

3.5 ARIMA Models.

3.6 Seasonal ARIMA.

3.7 Exercises.

4 Estimation in the Time Domain.

4.1 Introduction.

4.2 Moment Estimators.

4.3 Autoregressive Models.

4.4 Moving Average Models.

4.5 ARMA Models.

4.6 Maximum Likelihood Estimates.

4.7 Partial ACF.

4.8 Order Selections.

4.9 Residual Analysis.

4.10 Model Building.

4.11 Exercises.

5 Examples in SPLUS and R.

5.1 Introduction.

5.2 Example 1.

5.3 Example 2.

5.4 Exercises.

6 Forecasting.

6.1 Introduction.

6.2 Simple Forecasts.

6.3 Box and Jenkins Approach.

6.4 Treasury Bill Example.

6.5 Recursions.

6.6 Exercises.

7 Spectral Analysis.

7.1 Introduction.

7.2 Spectral Representation Theorems.

7.3 Periodogram.

7.4 Smoothing of Periodogram.

7.5 Conclusions.

7.6 Exercises.

8 Nonstationarity.

8.1 Introduction.

8.2 Nonstationarity in Variance.

8.3 Nonstationarity in Mean: Random Walk with Drift.

8.4 Unit Root Test.

8.5 Simulations.

8.6 Exercises.

9 Heteroskedasticity.

9.1 Introduction.

9.2 ARCH.

9.3 GARCH.

9.4 Estimation and Testing for ARCH.

9.5 Example of Foreign Exchange Rates.

9.6 Exercises.

10 Multivariate Time Series.

10.1 Introduction.

10.2 Estimation of μ and Γ.

10.3 Multivariate ARMA Processes.

10.4 Vector AR Models.

10.5 Example of Inferences for VAR.

10.6 Exercises.

11 State Space Models.

11.1 Introduction.

11.2 State Space Representation.

11.3 Kalman Recursions.

11.4 Stochastic Volatility Models.

11.5 Example of Kalman Filtering of Term Structure.

11.6 Exercises.

12 Multivariate GARCH.

12.1 Introduction.

12.2 General Model.

12.3 Quadratic Form.

12.4 Example of Foreign Exchange Rates.

12.5 Conclusions.

12.6 Exercises.

13 Cointegrations and Common Trends.

13.1 Introduction.

13.2 Definitions and Examples.

13.3 Error Correction Form.

13.4 Granger’s Representation Theorem.

13.5 Structure of Cointegrated Systems.

13.6 Statistical Inference for Cointegrated Systems.

13.7 Example of Spot Index and Futures.

13.8 Conclusions.

13.9 Exercises.

14 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods.

14.1 Introduction.

14.2 Bayesian Inference.

14.3 Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

14.4 Exercises.

15 Statistical Arbitrage.

15.1 Introduction.

15.2 Pairs Trading.

15.3 Cointegration.

15.4 Simple Pairs Trading.

15.5 Cointegrations and Pairs Trading.

15.6 Hang Seng Index Components Example.

15.7 Exercises.

16 Answers to Selected Exercises.

16.1 Chapter 1.

16.2 Chapter 2.

16.3 Chapter 3.

16.4 Chapter 4.

16.5 Chapter 5.

16.6 Chapter 6.

16.7 Chapter 7.

16.8 Chapter 8.

16.9 Chapter 9.

16.10 Chapter 10.

16.11 Chapter 11.

16.12 Chapter 12.

16.13 Chapter 13.

16.14 Chapter 14.

16.15 Chapter 15.

References.

Subject Index.

Author Index.

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