Is Uganda an Emerging Economy? : A Report for

In spite of serious external shocks and political destabi-lisation in part of the country, Uganda has remained a good economic performer since the late 1980s, with over a decade of high per capita growth in excess of three per cent. This study concludes that Uganda's medium to long-term success will depend on the achievements in institutional reforms, including raising the quality of the civil service, curbing corruption and implementing an effective regulatory framework. This is important as a poorly functioning public sector is both unable to uphold the rule of law, thus losing the public goodwill necessary for implementing new measures, and a burden on the private sector as it implies increased transaction costs.

Arne Bigsten is Professor of Development Economics at Goteborg University.

Introduction

7

(1)

Background

7

Growth determinants

3

(7)

An emerging economy

10

(3)

Outline of the study

13

(1)

Part I AN OVERVIEW OF LONG-RUN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

Introduction

14

(1)

Pressures of nationhood, 1960--1970

14

(3)

Policy distortions, external shocks and decline, 1971--1980

17

(2)

The slow road to economic reform, 1981--1986

19

(2)

From stabilisation to growth: Economic reforms under the NRM 1987--2000

21

(3)

Investment and productivity growth

24

(3)

Changes in poverty 1992--1996

27

(3)

Aid dependence

30

(3)

Issues arising: Security, East African cooperation and politics

33

(3)

Concluding remarks

36

(4)

Statistical annex

37

(11)

Uganda Investment Authority

48

Part II MACROECONOMIC POLICIES TO PROMOTE STABILITY

Public finance

40

(6)

Introduction

40

(1)

Revenue

40

(3)

Expenditure

43

(3)

Exchange rate policy

46

(2)

The debt burden

48

(6)

Introduction

48

(1)

Policy on debt

49

(4)

Conclusion

53

(1)

Part III STRUCTURAL POLICIES TO PROMOTE LONG-RUN GROWTH

Price policy and trade reform

54

(4)

Policy and non-policy barriers to trade

54

(1)

Responses to changes in tariff structure and protection

55

(2)

Conclusions

57

(1)

Strengthening the financial system

58

(7)

Introduction

58

(1)

Changes in financial sector policy

58

(2)

Structure of bank portfolios and interest rates

60

(2)

Prospects and future challenges

62

(2)

Conclusion

64

(1)

Investing in infrastructure and social overhead capital

65

(11)

Introduction

65

(1)

Human capital

66

(6)

Physical infrastructure

72

(3)

Conclusions

75

(1)

Part IV PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

Securing the private/public sector boundary

76

(10)

Introduction

76

(1)

Privatisation

76

(3)

The private/public sector boundary

79

(6)

Conclusions

85

(1)

Good governance and policy reform: Prospects and obstacles

86

(6)

Introduction

86

(1)

Public sector reform

87

(2)

Decentralisation

89

(2)

Conclusions

91

(1)

Part V CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION

Introduction

92

(1)

Is Uganda an emerging economy?

92

(4)

Policy conclusions for Uganda

96

(1)

What should donors do?

97

(3)

Appendix: List of persons interviewed

100

(1)

References

101

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Is Uganda an Emerging Economy? : A Report for the OECD Project "Emerging Africa"

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials