Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making

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ISBN: 9780521876452 | 0521876451
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 3/8/2010

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Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a psychological approach to foreign policy decision making. This approach focuses on the decision process, dynamics, and outcome. The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and examples that are woven into the text. The cases and examples, which are written in an accessible style, include decisions made by leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland, United Kingdom, and others. In addition to coverage of the rational model of decision making, levels of analysis of foreign policy decision making, and types of decisions, the book includes extensive material on alternatives to the rational choice model, the marketing and framing of decisions, cognitive biases, and domestic, cultural, and international influences on decision making in international affairs. Existing textbooks do not present such an approach to foreign policy decision making, international relations, American foreign policy, and comparative foreign policy.

Acknowledgments	p. xiii
Introduction
Why Study Foreign Policy from a Decision-Making Perspective?	p. 3
Foreign Policy Decision Making	p. 3
Why Study Foreign Policy Decision Making?	p. 5
The Rational and Cognitive Schools	p. 7
Comparative Foreign Policy	p. 9
Limitations of the Decision-Making Approach	p. 10
Plan of the Book	p. 10
The Decision Environment
Types of Decisions and Levels of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making	p. 15
Types of Decisions	p. 15
Unilateral, Negotiated, Structured, and Unstructured Decisions	p. 16
Holistic, Heuristic and Wholistic Decisions	p. 17
Trade-offs in Decision Making	p. 17
The Level of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making	p. 18
Individual-Level Decisions	p. 18
Group-level Decisions	p. 19
Coalition Decision Making	p. 20
Case Study: Israel's Foreign Policy Making by Coalition	p. 21
Another Example of Coalition Decision Making: Iceland's Cod War, 1971-1974	p. 23
The Decision Environment	p. 25
Time Constraints	p. 25
Information Constraints	p. 26
Ambiguity	p. 27
Familiarity	p. 27
Dynamic Setting	p. 27
Interactive Setting	p. 28
Risk	p. 28
Stress	p. 28
Accountability	p. 30
The Role of Advisory Groups	p. 31
Information Search Patterns	p. 32
Holistic versus Nonholistic Search	p. 33
Order-Sensitive versus Order-Insensitive Search	p. 33
Alternative-Based versus Dimension-Based Search	p. 33
Maximizing versus Satisficing Search Patterns	p. 34
Compensatory versus Noncompensatory Rule	p. 34
Noncompensatory Decision Rules	p. 35
Conjunctive Decision Rule (CON)	p. 35
Disjunctive Decision Rule (DIS)	p. 36
Elimination-by-aspect (EBA) Decision Rule	p. 36
Lexicographic (LEX) Decision Rule	p. 36
Conclusion	p. 37
Biases in Decision Making	p. 38
Case Study: The U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq In 2003 - the Effect of Cognitive Biases on Foreign Policy Making	p. 41
Groupthink	p. 44
Groupthink in American Foreign Policy	p. 45
Beyond Groupthink	p. 47
Groupthink and Multiple Advocacy	p. 48
Polythink	p. 49
Case Study: Polythink at Camp David, 2000	p. 50
Did Polythink Lead to the Collapse of the Camp David Talks?	p. 52
Group Polarization Effect	p. 53
Conclusion	p. 54
Models of Decision Making
The Rational Actor Model	p. 57
The Rational Actor Model	p. 57
Case Study: New Zealand's Defiance of the United States and ANZUS	p. 59
The Expected Utility Model of War Decision Making	p. 60
Opportunity Costs	p. 61
Game-Theoretic Models	p. 62
Prisoner's Dilemma	p. 64
Chicken	p. 65
Tit-for-Tat	p. 66
Conclusion	p. 67
Alternatives to the Rational Actor Model	p. 68
Bounded Rationality and the Cybernetic Model	p. 68
Bureaucratic Politics	p. 70
Organizational Politics	p. 73
Prospect Theory	p. 75
Sunk Costs	p. 77
Integrating the Rational and Cognitive Models: Poliheuristic Theory	p. 78
What is Poliheuristic Decision Making?	p. 79
Case Study: The Decision not to Invade Iraq in 1991 - An Application of Various Decision-Making Models to a Foreign Policy Event	p. 81
Background	p. 81
A Rational Actor Interpretation	p. 82
A Cybernetic Explanation	p. 83
A Prospect Theory Explanation	p. 84
A Poliheuristic Explanation	p. 85
An Organizational Politics Explanation	p. 86
A Bureaucratic Politics Model	p. 87
Applied Decision Analysis	p. 87
A Simple Example: The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Decision Matrix	p. 88
ADA: A Closer Look	p. 89
Application to Decisions of Leaders of Terrorist Organizations: Bin Laden and al-Qaeda	p. 92
Conclusion	p. 93
Determinants of Foreign Policy Decision Making
Psychological Factors Affecting Foreign Policy Decisions	p. 97
Psychological Factors	p. 97
Cognitive Consistency	p. 98
Evoked Set	p. 99
Emotions	p. 99
Images	p. 101
Beliefs, Belief Systems, and Schema	p. 101
Operational Code Analysis	p. 102
Analogies and Learning	p. 103
The "Munich Analogy" and Use of Analogies in U.S. Foreign Policy	p. 104
Case Study: Analogies in U.S.-Cuban Relations, 1954-1967	p. 106
The Analogies Provided by Guatemala, 1954	p. 106
The Bay of Pigs	p. 108
The Cuban Foco and Africa, 1965	p. 109
Bolivia, 1966-1967	p. 111
Leaders' Personality	p. 114
Leadership Style	p. 115
Types of Leaders: Crusader, Strategic, Pragmatic, and Opportunistic	p. 116
Cognitive Mapping	p. 119
Conclusion	p. 120
International, Domestic, and Cultural Factors Influencing Foreign Policy Decision Making	p. 121
International Factors	p. 121
Deterrence and Arms Races	p. 121
Strategic Surprise	p. 125
Alliances	p. 126
Regime Type of the Adversary	p. 127
Domestic Factors	p. 129
Diversionary Tactics	p. 129
Economic Interests and Foreign Policy Decisions	p. 130
The Role of Public Opinion	p. 131
Electoral Cycles	p. 132
The Effect of Domestic and International Factors on Foreign Policy Decisions: Two-Level Games	p. 133
Case Study: The Domestic and International Underpinnings of Decision Making - the Falklands War, 1982	p. 134
Diversionary Behavior	p. 134
Deterrence and Misperception	p. 135
Electoral Impact	p. 136
Decisions on the Use of Economic Instruments of Foreign Policy	p. 136
The Decision to Use Sanctions as an Instrument of Foreign Policy	p. 137
The Decision to Use Aid in Foreign Policy	p. 138
Negotiation and Mediation Decisions	p. 139
Decisions on Foreign Policy Substitutability	p. 141
Gender Differences in Decision Making	p. 143
Cultural Differences in Decision Making	p. 144
Conclusion	p. 145
Marketing Foreign Policy
Framing, Marketing, and Media Effects on Foreign Policy Decision Making	p. 149
Marketing Effects	p. 149
Framing Effects	p. 150
The Frame as a Political Lens	p. 151
Who is Framing Whom? Framing the Public	p. 152
Framing beyond the Borders	p. 155
Advisory Group Framing and Manipulating	p. 156
Summary	p. 159
Media Effects	p. 160
Case Study: The Marketing of the U.S. Invasion of Grenada, 1983	p. 162
Background	p. 162
The Key Decision Makers	p. 163
The Marketing of the Decision	p. 163
The Decision Process	p. 164
Could the Process Actually Have Been a Compensatory One?	p. 166
Conclusion	p. 166
Conclusion
Conclusion	p. 169
What Does it All Mean?: A Case Study of the U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq in 2003	p. 171
Conclusion	p. 175
Appendix: Foreign Policy Simulation and Exercise	p. 177
References	p. 179
Index	p. 199
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Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making

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