Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles

Assessing Weight-of-Evidence for DNA Profiles is an excellent introductory text to the use of statistical analysis for assessing DNA evidence. It offers practical guidance to forensic scientists with little dependence on mathematical ability as the book includes background information on statistics - including likelihood ratios - population genetics, and courtroom issues.The author, who is highly experienced in this field, has illustrated the book throughout with his own experiences as well as providing a theoretical underpinning to the subject. It is an ideal choice for forensic scientists and lawyers, as well as statisticians and population geneticists with an interest in forensic science and DNA.

Editors:
D. J. Balding, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK

M. Bishop, UK HGMP Resource Centre, Cambridge, UK

C. Cannings, University of Sheffield, UK

Preface

xi

Introduction

1

(6)

Weight-of-evidence theory

1

(2)

About the book

3

(1)

DNA profiling technology

3

(1)

What you need to know already

4

(1)

Other resources

5

(2)

Crime on an island

7

(15)

Warm-up examples

7

(3)

Disease testing: Positive Predictive Value (PPV)

7

(2)

Coloured taxis

9

(1)

Rare trait identification evidence

10

(3)

The ``island'' problem

10

(1)

A first lesson from the island problem

11

(2)

Making the island problem more realistic

13

(7)

Uncertainty about p

14

(1)

Uncertainty about N

15

(1)

Possible typing errors

15

(2)

Searches

17

(1)

Other evidence

18

(1)

Relatives and population subdivision

19

(1)

Weight-of-evidence exercises

20

(2)

Assessing evidence via likelihood ratios

22

(21)

Likelihood ratios

22

(2)

The weight-of-evidence formula

24

(3)

Application to the island problem

25

(1)

The population p

25

(2)

General application of the formula

27

(4)

Several items of evidence

27

(2)

Assessing all the evidence

29

(1)

The role of the expert witness

30

(1)

Consequences for DNA evidence

31

(5)

Many possible culprits

31

(1)

Incorporating the non-DNA evidence

31

(2)

Relatives

33

(1)

Laboratory and handling errors

34

(1)

Database searches

35

(1)

Some derivations †

36

(4)

Bayes theorem for identification evidence

37

(1)

Uncertainty about p and N

38

(1)

Grouping the alternative possible culprits

39

(1)

Typing errors

40

(1)

Further weight-of-evidence exercises

40

(3)

Typing technologies

43

(13)

STR typing

44

(6)

Anomalies

46

(3)

Contamination

49

(1)

Low copy number (LCN) profiling

50

(1)

mtDNA typing

50

(1)

Y-chromosome markers

51

(1)

X-chromosome markers †

52

(1)

SNP profiles

53

(1)

Fingerprints †

54

(2)

Some population genetics for DNA evidence

56

(26)

A brief overview

56

(6)

Drift

56

(3)

Mutation

59

(1)

Migration

60

(1)

Selection

60

(2)

θ, or Fst

62

(1)

A statistical model and sampling formula

63

(6)

Diallelic loci

63

(5)

Multi-allelic loci

68

(1)

Hardy--Weinberg equilibrium

69

(6)

Testing for deviations from HWE †

70

(4)

Interpretation of test results

74

(1)

Linkage equilibrium

75

(2)

Coancestry †

77

(2)

Likelihood-based estimation of θ †

79

(2)

Population genetics exercises

81

(1)

Identification

82

(29)

Choosing the hypotheses

82

(3)

Post-data equivalence of hypotheses

84

(1)

Calculating likelihood ratios

85

(9)

The match probability

85

(2)

One Iocus

87

(2)

Multiple loci: the ``product rule''

89

(1)

Relatives of s

90

(2)

Confidence limits †

92

(1)

Other profiled individuals

93

(1)

Application to STR profiles

94

(5)

Values for the pj

95

(1)

The value of θ

96

(2)

Errors

98

(1)

Application to haploid profiles

99

(2)

mtDNA profiles

99

(2)

Y-chromosome markers

101

(1)

Mixtures

101

(8)

Visual interpretation of mixed profiles

101

(2)

Likelihood ratios under qualitative interpretation

103

(5)

Quantitative interpretation of mixtures

108

(1)

Identification exercises

109

(2)

Relatedness

111

(24)

Paternity

111

(15)

Weight of evidence for paternity

111

(1)

Prior probabilities

112

(1)

Calculating likelihood ratios

113

(4)

Multiple loci: the effect of linkage

117

(2)

s may be related to c but is not the father

119

(1)

Incest

120

(1)

Mother unavailable

121

(1)

Mutation

122

(4)

Other relatedness between two individuals

126

(3)

Only the two individuals profiled

126

(1)

Profiled individual close relative of target

127

(1)

Profiles of known relatives also available †

128

(1)

Software for relatedness analyses

129

(2)

Inference of ethnicity or phenotype †

131

(2)

Relatedness exercises

133

(2)

Other approaches to weight of evidence

135

(10)

Uniqueness

135

(3)

Analysis

136

(2)

Discussion

138

(1)

Inclusion/exclusion probabilities

138

(3)

Random man

138

(1)

Inclusion probability of a typing system

139

(1)

Case-specific inclusion probability

139

(2)

Hypothesis testing †

141

(2)

Other exercises

143

(2)

Issues for the courtroom

145

(12)

Bayesian reasoning in court

145

(1)

Some fallacies

146

(2)

The prosecutor's fallacy

146

(1)

The defendant's fallacy

147

(1)

The uniqueness fallacy

148

(1)

Some UK appeal cases

148

(6)

Deen (1993)

148

(1)

Dalby (1995)

149

(1)

Adams (1996)

149

(2)

Doheny/Adams (1996)

151

(2)

Watters (2000)

153

(1)

US National Research Council reports

154

(1)

Prosecutor's fallacy exercises

155

(2)

Solutions to exercises

157

(18)

Bibliography

175

(8)

Index

183

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Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials