The Well-Timed Strategy Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage

Most companies ignore one of their best opportunities for honing competitive advantage: the opportunity to proactively manage business cycles and macroeconomic turbulence. Despite the profound impact that the business cycle has on the fortunes and fate of so many businesses large and small--and the employees and investors that depend on them--not fa single book offers a comprehensive guide to strategically and tactically managing the business cycle. The Well-Timed Strategyshows how to manage not just the business cycle and industry cycles but also today's unprecedented level of macroeconomic turbulence. Peter Navarro shows how to align every facet of business strategy, tactics, and operations to reflect changing business conditions. Drawing on hundreds of examples, Navarro distills clear, simple management principles for managing economic upswings and downswings. Navarro addresses everything from inventory, production, and supply chain management to marketing, pricing, and long-term capital investment. Navarro presents examples from around the globe, ranging from Broadcom and Cemex to Paccar and Xilinx Chinese real estate developers to U.S. small caps. Clear, concise, and exceptionally readable, The Well-Timed Strategymakes complex macroeconomic forecasting easy to understand -- and even easier to act upon. #xA0; Introduction#xA0; xvii #xA0; Chapter 1: Strategies and Tactics of the Master Cyclist Executive#xA0; 1 Chapter 2: Countercycling Your Capital Expenditures#xA0; 15 Chapter 3: The Acquisitive Master Cyclist Buys Low and Sells High#xA0; 39 Chapter 4: The Art of #x1C;Cherry Picking#x1D; and Other Well-Timed Tactics of the Human Resources Manager#xA0; 55 Chapter 5: #x1C;Macromanaging#x1D; Your Production, Inventory, and Supply Chain#xA0; 75 Chapter 6: Master Cyclist Marketing Through the Business Cycle Seasons#xA0; 95 Chapter 7: Pricing the Cycle and Managing Credit and Account Receivables#xA0; 111 Chapter 8: Proactive Profiting From Oil Price Spikes, Interest Rate Hikes, and Exchange Rate Risks#xA0; 129 Chapter 9: When You Can#x19;t Beat the Business Cycle, Hedge Its Risks!#xA0; 149 Chapter 10: Surviving#x13;and Prospering from#x13;the Economic Shocks of War, Terrorism, Drought, and Disease#xA0; 169 Chapter 11: The Master Cyclist#x19;s Favorite Forecasting Tools#xA0; 185 #xA0; Concluding Thoughts#xA0; 211 #xA0; Appendix A: The Master Cyclist Project#x19;s Treasure Trove of Data and All-Star Team #xA0;213 Appendix B: A Business Cycle Primer#xA0; 223 #xA0; Notes#xA0; 233 #xA0; Index#xA0; 239

Peter Navarro is a business professor at the University of California, Irvine.

 

He is author of the best-selling investment book If It’s Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks and the best-selling audio lecture course “Big Picture Investing: How, When, and Why the Stock Market Moves.” His weekly newsletter on the economy and stock market is distributed widely and is available to the public at www.peternavarro.com.

 

A widely sought-after and gifted public speaker, Navarro has appeared  on Bloomberg TV, CNN, CNBC, NPR, and all three major network news shows. Navarro’s articles have appeared in a wide range of leading publications, including Barron’s, Business Week, Harvard Business Review, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Sloan Management Review.

 

Professor Navarro holds a B.A. from Tufts University and a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard.

Introduction  xvii

 

Chapter 1: Strategies and Tactics of the Master Cyclist Executive  1

Chapter 2: Countercycling Your Capital Expenditures  15

Chapter 3: The Acquisitive Master Cyclist Buys Low and Sells High  39

Chapter 4: The Art of “Cherry Picking” and Other Well-Timed Tactics of the Human Resources Manager  55

Chapter 5: “Macromanaging” Your Production, Inventory, and Supply Chain  75

Chapter 6: Master Cyclist Marketing Through the Business Cycle Seasons  95

Chapter 7: Pricing the Cycle and Managing Credit and Account Receivables  111

Chapter 8: Proactive Profiting From Oil Price Spikes, Interest Rate Hikes, and Exchange Rate Risks  129

Chapter 9: When You Can’t Beat the Business Cycle, Hedge Its Risks!  149

Chapter 10: Surviving—and Prospering from—the Economic Shocks of War, Terrorism, Drought, and Disease  169

Chapter 11: The Master Cyclist’s Favorite Forecasting Tools  185

 

Concluding Thoughts  211

 

Appendix A: The Master Cyclist Project’s Treasure Trove of Data and All-Star Team  213

Appendix B: A Business Cycle Primer  223

 

Notes  233

 

Index  239