When the Market Moves, Will You Be Ready?

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ISBN: 9780071410670 | 0071410678
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 9/26/2003

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Interactive exercises and trading guidelines for using today's most strategically advanced "event-trading" techniqueHigh-profile events and announcements can cause tremendous swings in stocks and sectors, and often point out tremendous opportunities to investors who know how to read them.When the Market Moves, Will You Be Ready?is a "how-to" for knowing which events matter versus which are meaningless, and how to take advantage of the former for consistent trading success.Emphasizing the practical side of trading,When the Market Moves, Will You Be Ready?features exercises, Q&As, and checklists for using investing techniques in day, swing, value, or virtually any other trading or investing style.This hands-on book explores: Techniques for finding the best stock in a given sector Methods for profitably combining technical and fundamental analysis Ways to continually assess market and sector trends

Acknowledgments

Introduction

xiii

Part One The Big Picture

(26)

1 So You Want to Make a Million in the Stock Market

(4)

Anatomy of a Crash

(3)

2 What's Your Wall Street "IQ"?

(8)

3 The Four Stages of Macrowave Investing

(12)

The Four Stages of Macrowave Investing

(1)

Stage One: The Four Dynamic Factors

(2)

Stage Two: Three Key Cycles That Shape Market and Sector Trends

(4)

Stage Three: Picking Strong and Weak Stocks and Sectors

(1)

Stage Four: Using Solid Money, Risk, and Trade Management Tools to Buy, Sell, and Short Stocks

(3)

Part Two The Four Dynamic Factors

(42)

4 Follow the Earnings Calendar!

(8)

Key Point #1: Fall into the Gap?

(1)

Key Point #2: Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News

(1)

Key Point #3: Consensus Estimates versus Whisper Numbers

(1)

Key Point #4: Sector Watch

(1)

Key Point #5: Earnings and the Broad Market Trend

(4)

5 Follow the Macroeconomic Calendar!

(12)

Key Point #1: The Market's Major Fuel

(1)

Key Point #2: Use Macro Scenario Building

(3)

Key Point #3: Mr. Market Hates Inflation

(1)

Key Point #4: Mr. Market Hates Recession

(1)

Key Point #5: Mr. Market Hates Productivity Decreases

(1)

Key Point #6: Mr. Market (Mostly) Hates Trade Deficits

(5)

6 Uncle Sam and the Stock Market

(10)

Key Point #1: The Tools of Monetary Policy

(1)

Key Point #2: The Fed Moves in Cycles, Not Isolated Steps

(1)

Key Point #3: Monetary Policy Ripples through the Stock Market

(1)

Key Point #4: You Can't Push on a String

(1)

Key Point #5: The Two Problems with Financing Fiscal Policy

(1)

Key Point #6: Fiscal Policy's Blunt and Irreversible Tool

(1)

Key Point #7: The Problem(s) with Tax Cuts

(4)

7 Exogenous Shocks and the Strategy of the Macroplay

(10)

Key Point #1: The Art of the Macroplay

(1)

Key Point #2: Contractionary Oil Price Spikes

(1)

Key Point #3: War Premiums and Penalties

(1)

Key Point #4: The Terrorism Tax

(2)

Key Point #5: The Market Stain of Scandals

(1)

Key Point #6: The Role of Disruptive Technologies

(3)

Part Three The Three Key Cycles

(46)

8 Tracking the Market and Sector Trends

(14)

Key Point #1: The Market Trends Up, Down, or Moves Sideways

(2)

Key Point #2: Individual Sectors Move Up, Down, or Move Sideways

(1)

Key Point #3: Use Exchange-Traded Funds to Track Market and Sector Trends

(2)

Key Point #4: It's Easy in Hindsight to Spot Market and Sector Trends

(1)

Key Point #5: Use the 3-Point-Break Method to Spot Changes in Trends

(7)

9 The Business Cycle and the Stock Market Cycle

(10)

Key Point #1: The Business Cycle's Ups and Downs

(2)

Key Point #2: The Stock Market's Crystal Ball

(1)

Key Point #3: The Stock Market and Four Dynamic Factors

(1)

Key Point #4: The Profitable Patterns of Sector Rotation

(5)

10 As the Interest Rate Cycle Turns

(10)

Key Point #1: The Four Stages of the Interest Rate Cycle

(1)

Key Point #2: Higher Interest Rates Negatively Affect the Market and Sector Trends

(3)

Key Point #3: Some Bond Market Basics

100

(1)

Key Point #4: The Term Structure of Interest Rates

101

(4)

11 Unlocking the Mysteries of the Yield Curve

105

(10)

Key Point #1: Constructing the Yield Curve

106

(1)

Key Point #2: Shapes of the Yield Curve

107

(3)

Key Point #3: Some Historic Evidence of the Yield Curve's Predictive Powers

110

(5)

Part Four Picking Strong and Weak Stocks and Sectors

115

(54)

12 It's Finger-Lickin', Stock-Pickin' Good

117

(12)

Key Point #1: Buy Low on the Dips, Sell High on the Peaks

118

(1)

Key Point #2: Buy High, Sell Higher

119

(2)

Key Point #3: High Volume Movers

121

(1)

Key Point #4: The Ratings Game

122

(1)

Key Point #5: Buy What You Know

123

(1)

Key Point #6: The Way of the Red Herring

124

(1)

Key Point #7: Ignore Hot Stock Tips

125

(4)

13 It's Absolutely Fundamental

129

(14)

Key Point #1: An Efficient and Random Market? Not!

131

(1)

Key Point #2: Exploit Price Deviations from "Fair Value"

132

(1)

Key Point #3: Many Fundamental Analysts Are "Value Investors"

133

(1)

Key Point #4: The Fundamental Analyst's Tools

134

(1)

Key Point #5: Use the Internet to Simplify Your Fundamental Screening

135

Key Point #6: The Fundamental Analyst's Traps

131

(8)

Key Point #7: Use Both a Fundamental and Technical Analysis Screen!

139

(4)

14 Technically Speaking

143

(26)

Key Point #1: Learn the Lingo and Underlying Psychology

144

(3)

Key Point #2: Price Chart Patterns Identify Trends!

147

(3)

Key Point #3: Some Common Chart Patterns Can Be Helpful

150

(4)

Key Point #4: Volume Speaks Volumes

154

(1)

Key Point #5: Moving Averages Clarify the Trend!

155

(2)

Key Point #6: The Signals of Momentum Indicators

157

(2)

Key Point #7: Au Contrarian! The Logic of Market Sentiment

159

(1)

Key Point #8: Use a Technical Screen!

160

(3)

Key Point #9: Some Tools Work Better Than Others, Depending on the Market Trend

163

(6)

Part Five Buying, Selling, and Shorting Stocks

169

(50)

15 Managing Your Risk

171

(10)

Key Point #1: Risk Represents Both Danger and Opportunity

172

(1)

Key Point #2: The Three Dimensions of Risk

173

(1)

Key Point #3: The Myriad Sources of Risk

174

(1)

Key Point #4: The Reward-to-Risk Ratio

175

(1)

Key Point #5: Some Useful Yardsticks to Measure Risk

176

(1)

Key Point #6: What Does "Well Diversified" Mean?

177

(1)

Key Point #7: Some (More) Risk Management Rules

177

(4)

16 Managing Your Money

181

(14)

Step #1: Calculate Your Investing Batting Average or Win%

183

(1)

Step #2: Determine Your Risk Capital

184

(2)

Step #3: Determining Your Reward-to-Risk Ratio

186

(3)

Step #4: Determining Your Position Limit and Position Size

189

(1)

Step #5: Increasing Position Sizes by Adding Units of Risk

190

(5)

17 Managing Your Trades

195

(12)

Key Point #1: Market versus Limit Orders

196

(3)

Key Point #2: Set Intelligent Stop Losses-Don't Be Shaken Out!

199

(1)

Key Point #3: Use Trailing Stops to Lock in Profits

200

(1)

Key Point #4: Use Buy Stops to Play Breakouts

201

(1)

Key Point #5: Never Average Down a Loss

201

(1)

Key Point #6: Don't Churn Your Own Portfolio!

202

(1)

Key Point #7: Some Inside Tips

203

(1)

Key Point #8: David Aloyan's Top Ten Investor Psychology Tips

203

(4)

18 Executing Your Trades

207

(12)

Key Point #1: The Three Methods to Execute Your Trades

208

(1)

Key Point #2: Level I versus Level II Trading

209

(2)

Key Point #3: The Slippage Problem with Level I Brokers

211

(2)

Key Point #4: Direct Access Trading Eliminates Slippage

213

(2)

Key Point #5: The Virtues of Programmed Ordering

215

(4)

Part Six Macrowave Investing in Motion

219

(16)

19 Preparing for the Investing Week

221

(8)

The Savvy Macrowave Investor Newsletter

222

(7)

20 The Stimulation of Portfolio Simulation

229

(6)

Key Point #1: Simulate Your Portfolio With STOCK-TRAK

230

(1)

Key Point #2: The Tuition Bill Always Comes Due

230

(1)

Key Point #3: Stop the Bleeding and Find the Right Bandage

231

(1)

Key Point #4: Conquer Shortaphobia

232

(3)

Answer Key

235

(26)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 1

235

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 2

235

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 3

236

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 4

237

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 5

238

(2)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 6

240

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 7

241

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 8

242

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 9

243

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 10

244

(2)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 11

246

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 12

247

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 13

248

(2)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 14

250

(2)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 15

252

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 16

253

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 17

254

(2)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 18

256

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 19

257

(1)

Answers to Questions for Chapter 20

258

(3)

Afterword

261

(4)

The Savvy Macrowave Investor Pledge

261

(4)

Index

265

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When the Market Moves, Will You Be Ready?

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials