Competition and Innovation in the U.S.

Responds to Senate's comcerns that further consolidation in the military-aircraft industry, which has dropped from 11 prime contractors in 1960 to the current three, dwill pose risks to innovation and cost through limited or no competition in contracting for military aircraft and related weapon systems for the Department of Denfense.

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Tables	p. xiii
Summary	p. xv
Acknowledgments	p. xxi
Acronyms	p. xxiii
Introduction	p. 1
Origins of This Study	p. 3
Study Scope	p. 4
Approach	p. 6
Describe the Present Military Aircraft Industry and Apparent Trends That Might Lead to a Changed Industry Structure in the Future	p. 6
Develop a Methodology for Examining the Relationship Between Competition and Innovation	p. 7
Assess Future Prospects for Innovation and Competition in the Military Aircraft Industry	p. 8
Identify Policy Options Open to the Department of Defense	p. 8
Organization of the Report	p. 8
An Evolving Military Aircraft Industry	p. 11
Historical Perspective on Industry Structure and Consolidation	p. 11
Recent Patterns of Demand for Military Aircraft	p. 17
Defining Industry Capabilities	p. 24
A Minimum Viable Firm in the 1990s	p. 24
Recent Changes Affecting Industry Structure and Capabilities	p. 27
Implications of Change for a Minimum Viable Organization	p. 35
Summary of Industry Evolution and Capabilities	p. 38
Innovation in the Aircraft Industrial Base: Past Performance and Current Prospects	p. 39
What Drives Innovation?	p. 40
Evidence on the Trends and Present Level of Support for Innovation in the Military Aircraft Industry	p. 42
National Factors	p. 43
Status and Attractiveness	p. 44
Support Industries	p. 47
R&D	p. 47
Demand Conditions	p. 54
Competition	p. 56
Summary Observations	p. 59
What Might the Industry Look Like in the Future?	p. 61
Base Case	p. 63
Some Alternative Future Programs	p. 68
Near Term	p. 69
Additional UAV Programs	p. 73
A Major Combat Aircraft	p. 76
Summary Observations	p. 77
Some Risk-Reduction Measures	p. 81
Split F-35 Production	p. 81
Fund Advanced Design Projects	p. 83
A Comparison of Policy Options	p. 85
Evaluation of Policy Options	p. 88
Final Thoughts	p. 90
Description of Data Sets and Budget Activities Related to Figures 3.5, 3.7, and 3.8	p. 95
Bibliography	p. 99
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Competition and Innovation in the U.S. Fixed-Wing Military Aircraft Industry

Summary

Table of Contents

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