Coping with Iran Confrontation, Containment,

On March 21, 2007, the RAND Corporation held a public conference on Capitol Hill, Coping with Iran: Confrontation, Containment, or Engagement? Participants sought to discuss the benefits and drawbacks of various policy options to address the Iranian challenge. This report summarizes remarks presented during the conference. The views expressed in this document are those of the participants, as interpreted by the RAND Corporation.

Inside Iran	p. 3
Panel Members	p. 3
Role of the Regime	p. 3
How the United States May Misperceive Iranian Politics: Six Observations	p. 4
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Nuclear "Carpet," and Iraq	p. 5
Final Thoughts: The Iranian Populace and Two Ticking Clocks	p. 6
The Regime: Disagreement and Discord but Also Consensus?	p. 7
Question and Answer Session	p. 8
Looking At Two Alternative Futures	p. 13
Panel Members	p. 13
Iran, the United States, and Nuclear Weapons: An Examination of Key Policy Issues	p. 13
Five Key Points	p. 30
Powerful Drivers, Risks, and Possible Outcomes	p. 32
Question and Answer Session	p. 34
Closing Statement	p. 37
An Iranian Perspectives	p. 39
Presenter and Responders	p. 39
Iran's National Security Environment	p. 39
Question and Answer Session	p. 42
What to Do: Preemption? Containment? Engagement?	p. 49
Panel Members	p. 49
Iraq or Iran: Which Comes First?	p. 49
Elements of a Successful Diplomatic Strategy	p. 50
Addressing Uncertainties	p. 52
Where to Now?	p. 53
Question and Answer Session	p. 55
A U.S. Perspective	p. 59
Presenter and Responders	p. 59
How the U.S. Government Views Iran	p. 59
Question and Answer Session	p. 62
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Coping with Iran Confrontation, Containment, or Engagement? A Conference Report

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