Imagining After Capitalism

Imagining After Capitalism is the culmination of professional futurist Andy Hines’ s 10-year exploration of what comes next after capitalism. Arguing that the absence of compelling positive alternatives keeps us stuck in a combination of fear, denial, and false hope, he offers three “ guiding images” for the long-term future: an environmentally-driven Circular Commons, a socially-and politically-driven Non-Workers’ Paradise and a technology-driven Tech-Led Abundance.

Dr. Andy Hines is Associate Professor and Program Coordinator at the University of Houston’ s Graduate Program in Foresight, bringing together the experience he earned as an organizational, consulting, and academic futurist. Previously, he was Managing Director of Social Technologies/Innovaro and served as an Adjunct Professor with the university since 2004. Andy enjoyed earlier careers as a consulting and organizational futurist. He was a partner with Coates & Jarratt, Inc., a think tank and consulting firm that specialized in the study of the future. He was also Futurist & Senior Ideation Leader at Dow Chemical with a mission of using futures tools and knowledge to turn ideas into new business opportunities. Before that, Hines established and ran the Global Trends Program for the Kellogg Company. Andy has written six other books about futures and foresight as well as dozens of articles and speeches, including the 2003 Emerald Literati Awards’ Outstanding Paper accolade for best article published in Foresight for “ An Audit for Organizational Futurists” and the 2008 award for “ Scenarios: The State of the Art.” Andy co-founded and is former Chair of the Association of Professional Futurists and speaks and consults through his firm Hinesight.

FIGURES TABLES ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION AND APPROACH 1.1 Why After Capitalism? 1.1.1 Theory of change 1.1.2 Voice, tone and intended audience 1.2 Focal issue 1.3 Framework Foresight approach 1.3.1 How the guiding images “ fit” 1.4 After Capitalism framework PART I. THE RESEARCH CHAPTER 2 - SIGNALS AND DRIVERS 2.1 Framing: Three horizons and the domain map 2.2 Scanning and researching 2.3 Drivers 2.3.1 Shifting values 2.3.2 Technology acceleration 2.3.3 Inequality 2.3.4 Automation 2.3.5 Stagnation 2.3.6 Climate and carrying capacity 2.3.7 Ineffective left CHAPTER 3 - THE BASELINE 3.1 Context 3.2 Driver outcomes 3.3 Key assumptions guiding Neoliberal Capitalism 3.4 Other factors disintegrating the Baseline 3.4.1 Tribalism 3.4.2 Disaffected youth 3.4.3 The dispossessed 3.4.4 Neofeudalism 3.4.5 Emergence of myriad varieties of capitalism 3.4.6 Compilations 3.5 Baseline scenario CHAPTER 4 - TRANSITIONS 4.1 Collapse scenarios 4.1.1 Driver outcomes 4.1.2 Overshoot 4.1.3 Class War 4.1.4 Rogue AI 4.2 New Equilibrium Scenarios 4.2.1 Driver Outcomes 4.2.2 New Sources of Value 4.2.3 Collaborative Sharing Platforms 4.2.4 Sustainability transition PART II. THE GUIDING IMAGES CHAPTER 5 - CIRCULAR COMMONS 5.1.1 Driver outcomes 5.1.2 Challenges and responses 5.1.3 Purposes 5.1.4 Principles 5.1.5 Tools 5.1.6 Personal 5.1.7 Leadership 5.1.8 Pathway 5.1.9 Templates CHAPTER 6 - NON-WORKERS’ PARADISE 6.1.1 Driver outcomes 6.1.2 Challenges and responses 6.1.3 Purposes 6.1.4 Principles 6.1.5 Tools 6.1.6 Personal 6.1.7 Leadership 6.1.8 Pathway 6.1.9 Templates CHAPTER 7 - TECH-LED ABUNDANCE 7.1.1 Driver outcomes 7.1.2 Challenges and responses 7.1.3 Purposes 7.1.4 Principles 7.1.5 Tools 7.1.6 Personal 7.1.7 Leadership 7.1.8 Pathway 7.1.9 Templates 7.2 Comparing the images CHAPTER 8 - IMPLICATIONS 8.1 Past: As prologue? 8.2 Present: Comparing drivers across the scenarios 8.3 Future: Utopia not impossible 8.4 The Global Question 8.5 Pathways to the guiding images 8.5.1 Reform delays the inevitable 8.5.2 What might evolution look like 8.5.3 Revolution 8.5.4 Ways to intervene in a system CHAPTER 9 - CONCLUSION: TEN SHIFTS 9.2 In closing GLOSSARY REFERENCES