El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate

Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts.

El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change.

Volume highlights include:

• Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences
• Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics
• Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations
• Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing
• ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle
• Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting
• Future projections of ENSO and its impacts
• Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions

The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.

Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.

Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA

Agus Santoso, University of New South Wales, Australia

Wenju Cai, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia

Preface

Acknowledgment

Section I. Introduction

1. Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate
Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, and Wenju Cai

2. ENSO in the Global Climate System
Kevin E. Trenberth

Section II. Observations

3. ENSO Observations
Michael J. McPhaden, Tong Lee, Severine Fournier, and Magdalena A. Balmaseda       

4. ENSO Diversity       
Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg,Jong-Seong Kug, Ken Takahashi, andMichael J. McPhaden

5. Past ENSO Variability: Reconstructions, Models, and Implications
Julien Emile-Geay, Kim M. Cobb, Julia E. Cole, Mary Elliot, and Feng Zhu;

Section III. ENSO Theories and Dynamics

6. Simple ENSO Models
Fei-Fei Jin, Han-Ching Chen, Sen Zhao, Michiya Hayashi, Christina Karamperidou, Malte Stuecker, and Ruihuang Xie

7. ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry
Soon-Il An, Eli Tziperman, Yuko Okumura, and Tim Li

8. ENSO Low-frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions
Alexey V. Fedorov, Shineng Hu, Andrew Wittenberg, Aaron Levine, and Clara Deser

IV. Modeling and Prediction

9. ENSO Modelling: History, Progress and Challenges
Eric Guilyardi, Antonietta Capotondi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Sulian Thual, and Andrew Wittenberg

10. ENSO Prediction
Michelle L. L’Heureux, Aaron F.Z. Levine, Matthew Newman, Catherine Ganter, Jing-Jia Luo, Michael K. Tippett, and Timothy N. Stockdale

Section V. Remote and External Forcing

11. ENSO Remote Forcing: Influence of Climate Variability outside the Tropical Pacific
Jong-Seong Kug, Jerome Vialard, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jin-Yi Yu, and Matthieu Lengaigne

12. The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO
Shayne McGregor, Myriam Khodri, Nicola Maher, Masamichi Ohba, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Samantha Stevenson

13. ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing
Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Mat Collins, Matthieu Lengaigne, Scott Power, and Axel Timmermann

Section VI. Teleconnection and Impact

14. Atmospheric Teleconnections of ENSO
Andréa S. Taschetto, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Malte F. Stuecker, Dietmar Dommenget, Karumuri Ashok, Regina R. Rodrigues, and Sang-Wook Yeh

15. Oceanic Teleconnections of ENSO
Janet Sprintall, Sophie Cravatte, Boris Dewitte, Yan Du, and Alex Sen Gupta

16. Impact of El Niño on Weather and Climate Extremes
Lisa Goddard and Alexander Gershunov

17. ENSO and Tropical Cyclones
I-I Lin, Suzana J. Camargo, Christina M. Patricola, Julien Boucharel, Savin Chand, Phil Klotzbach, Johnny C. L. Chan, Bin Wang, Ping Chang, Tim Li, and Fei-Fei Jin

18. ENSO Driven Ocean Extremes and Ecosystem Impacts
Neil Holbrook, Danielle Claar, Alistair Hobday, Kathleen McInnes, Eric Oliver, Alex Sen Gupta, Matthew Widlansky, and Xuebin Zhang

19. ENSO Impact on Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems
Patrick Lehodey, Arnaud Bertrand, Alistair J. Hobday, Hidetada Kiyofuji, Sam McClatchie, Christophe E. Menkès, Graham Pilling, Jeffrey Polovina, and Desiree Tommasi

20. ENSO and the Carbon Cycle
Richard Betts, Chantelle Burton, Richard Feely, Mat Collins, Chris Jones, and Andy Wiltshire

Section VII. Closing

21. ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo-Perspectives, and Outlook
Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Seon Lee, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, and Wenju Cai

Glossary

Index

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