The 2008 Election in Florida Change! But Only

During 2008, the Democrats achieved in Florida a goal that had eluded them in all but three of the national elections since 1964: victory in the presidential race. Despite this success, the Republicans retained their dominance in the U.S. Congress and in the Florida State Legislature. The 2008 Elections in Florida utilizes multiple types of data to provide an explanation for the disparate outcomes of these elections. The book chronicles changes in voter registration and turnout over time and compares the electoral behavior of groups in Florida to that in the nation as a whole. It examines the importance of legislative apportionment, term limits and incumbency to the outcome of congressional and state legislative races and provides important clues to the future of electoral behavior in one of the nation's most important states.

Robert E. Crew, JR. is professor of political science and director of the graduate program in applied American politics at Florida State University. He studies American politics, U.S. social policy, and electoral politics in Florida and the nation. His most recent book is Jeb Bush: Aggressive Conservatism in Florida. Slater Bayliss is a political consultant in the Tallahassee, Florida, firm of Tew Cardenas. He is currently a graduate student in the masters program in applied American politics at Florida State University. Monica L. Moore is a graduate student in the Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

List of Illustrations	p. vii
Preface	p. ix
The 2008 Presidential Election in Florida
An Overview	p. 3
Introduction	p. 3
The 2008 Election in Historical Perspective	p. 4
The Florida Presidential Primaries	p. 5
Introduction	p. 5
Who Were the Candidates?	p. 6
How the Florida Primaries Were Contested	p. 7
Summary	p. 13
The General Election in Florida	p. 15
The Strategic Context	p. 15
Positioning, Targeting and Message	p. 16
How the Democrats Campaigned: The Ground Game	p. 17
How the Democrats Campaigned: The Air Wars	p. 21
How the Republicans Campaigned: The Ground Game	p. 23
How the Republicans Campaigned: The Air Wars	p. 25
The Election Results	p. 27
Early and Absentee Voting	p. 28
The Pattern of Results	p. 32
The County-by-County Results	p. 34
Explaining Increased Competitiveness	p. 36
Voting Behavior in the Florida Presidential Election
Who Voted and in What Numbers?	p. 43
Voter Registration and Turnout in Florida in Historical Perspective	p. 44
Voter Registration in the 2008 Election	p. 44
Voter Turnout in the 2008 Election	p. 51
Turnout across Counties	p. 51
Social Groups and the Vote	p. 56
Group Voting in Florida: 2004 and 2008	p. 56
Group Voting: Florida and the Nation	p. 62
Summary	p. 65
Candidates and Issues in the 2008 Campaign	p. 66
The Concerns of the Electorate	p. 66
Candidate Qualities	p. 70
The Congressional Elections
The Outcome of the 2008 Congressional Races	p. 75
Introduction	p. 75
District by District Analysis	p. 78
Incumbency Success	p. 94
Explaining Incumbency Success: Challenger Quality and Campaign Spending	p. 96
Summary	p. 106
The State Legislative Races
The Outcome of the 2008 Election Cycle	p. 109
Introduction	p. 109
Outcome	p. 111
Explaining Non-Competitiveness: The Cocktail of Apportionment, Incumbency, and Term Limits	p. 112
The Effects of the Cocktail in the 2008 Legislative Campaigns	p. 114
Minor Party Candidates	p. 116
Tight Legislative Races	p. 117
The Florida Elections of 2008 in Perspective
The 2008 Elections and the Future of Florida Politics	p. 125
State Legislative Elections	p. 126
Legislative Reapportionment	p. 127
Bibliography	p. 129
Index	p. 133
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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The 2008 Election in Florida Change! But Only at the Top of the Ticket

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