Achieving the Millennium Development Goals

This book provides analytical insights into if and how the targets adopted by the international community are likely to be achieved. A key feature of the analysis is the recognition that most of the MDG targets are endogenously related. These inter-dependencies are crucial not only in analyzing the MDGs, but also devising strategies.

MARK MCGILLIVRAY is Chief Economist of the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), an honorary Professor of Development Economics at the University of Glasgow, UK, an External Fellow of the Centre for Economic Development and International Trade at the University of Nottingham, and an Inaugural Fellow of the Human Development and Capability Association. Prior to joining AusAID he was Deputy Director of UNU-WIDER.

List of Tables and Figures	p. viii
Acknowledgements	p. xiii
Notes on the Contributors	p. xiv
List of Abbreviations	p. xvi
Foreword	p. xviii
The Millennium Development Goals: Overview, Progress and Prospects	p. 1
Introduction	p. 1
The MDGs and progress towards them	p. 2
Volume structure and contents	p. 14
Projecting Progress Towards the Millennium Development Goals	p. 20
Introduction	p. 20
Approaches to making projections	p. 20
Income poverty	p. 23
Mortality	p. 28
Education	p. 34
Nutrition	p. 39
HIV/AIDS	p. 42
Conclusions	p. 43
Projection methods	p. 45
Achieving Health, Wealth and Wisdom: Links between Aid and the Millennium Development Goals	p. 55
Introduction	p. 55
A brief literature review	p. 57
Data definition and measurement	p. 60
Empirical analysis	p. 65
Conclusion	p. 84
Appendix	p. 86
Achieving the Water and Sanitation Millennium Development Goal	p. 90
Introduction	p. 90
Hypotheses, methodology, data and limitations	p. 92
Analysis	p. 95
Conclusions and further issues	p. 111
Appendix	p. 113
Measuring Pro-Poor Progress Towards the Non-Income Millennium Development Goals	p. 123
Introduction	p. 123
The concept of pro-poor progress	p. 125
Methodology	p. 126
Data	p. 127
Results	p. 129
Conclusion	p. 144
Links between Childhood Mortality and Economic Growth and Their Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in India	p. 150
Introduction	p. 150
Why growth?	p. 151
Related research	p. 153
Data	p. 156
Descriptive statistics	p. 157
The econometric model	p. 160
Results	p. 164
Conclusions	p. 169
Achieving the Millennium Development Goal for Primary Schooling in India	p. 174
Introduction	p. 174
Data and definitions	p. 175
Related literature and contributions	p. 179
Analytical approach	p. 182
Empirical model	p. 182
Results	p. 184
Decomposition and simulation	p. 194
Conclusions	p. 199
Appendix	p. 200
The Burden of Government Debt in the Indian States: Implications for the MDG Poverty Target	p. 208
Introduction	p. 208
Debt and MDGs	p. 210
Methodology	p. 212
Results and analysis	p. 214
Simulation	p. 223
Conclusion	p. 226
Index	p. 229
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