America and the East Asian Crisis Memos to a

Arranged as a collection of memos from experts in academia and government to a president facing a policy challenge, each book in the series offers succinct explanations of the background and context behind a handful of key issues in a particular region of the world.

Robert B. Zoellick is a research scholar at Harvard University and fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. He is formerly a deputy White House chief of staff and undersecretary of state Philip D. Zelikow is a professor of history at the University of Virginia and director of the Miller Center of Public Affairs. He is formerly a White House official and diplomat

Introduction

vii

Participants in the Policy Discussion

xi

Regional Overview

Questions for Discussion

3

(2)

``The Asian Strategic Context''

5

(12)

Michel Oksenberg

``The International Monetary Fund and U.S. International Economic Policy''

17

(12)

David D. Hale

``Asian Financial Crises: Future Outlook and Next Steps (July 1998)''

29

(6)

Richard N. Cooper

Summary of Discussion on a Regional Overview of East Asia

35

(8)

Indonesia and Asean

Questions for Discussion

43

(2)

``What Has Happened and Is Likely to Happen in Indonesia''

45

(12)

Donald Emmerson

``The Policy Implications of the Crisis in Indonesia---What You Need to Know and Do''

57

(10)

Andrew MacIntyre

``The Economic Crisis and ASEAN Political and Security Concerns''

67

(12)

Sheldon Simon

Summary of Discussion on Indonesia and ASEAN

79

(8)

Korea and Northeast Asia

Questions for Discussion

87

(2)

``What Has Happened and Is Likely to Happen in the Republic of Korea''

89

(10)

Han Sung-Joo

``Implications of the Economic Crisis for U.S. Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula''

99

(10)

Douglas Paal

Summary of Discussion of Korea and Northeast Asia

109

(8)

Japan and China---A Changing Balance?

Questions for Discussion

117

(2)

``Japan: Policy Paralysis and Economic Stagnation''

119

(12)

Michael H. Armacost

``Will Developments in East Asia Significantly Affect the Relative Power of China and Japan?''

131

(14)

David Shambaugh

``China and Japan: The Relative Balance of Power and Its Implications for U.S. Policy''

145

(10)

Richard Ellings

``Implications for U.S. Policy of Power Shifts Between China and Japan''

155

(10)

Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

Summary of Discussion on Japan and China---A Changing Balance?

165

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America and the East Asian Crisis Memos to a President

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials