Applied Statistics for Public and Nonprofit Administration

, by Meier, Kenneth J.; Brudney, Jeffrey L.; Bohte, John

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ISBN: 9780534602680 | 0534602681
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 4/22/2005

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Part I: FOUNDATIONS OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS. 1. Statistics and Public Administration and Nonprofit Administration. 2. Measurement. 3. Research Design. Part II: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS. 4. Frequency Distributions. 5. Measures of Central Tendency. 6. Measures of Dispersion. Part III: PROBABILITY. 7. Introduction to Probability. 8. The Normal Probability Distribution. 9. The Binomial Probability Distribution. 10. Some Special Probability Distributions. Part IV: INFERENTIAL STATISTICS. 11. Introduction to Inference. 12. Hypothesis Testing. 13. Estimating Population Proportions. 14. Testing the Difference Between Two Groups. Part V: ANALYSIS OF NOMINAL AND ORDINAL DATA. 15. Construction and Analysis of Contingency Tables. 16. Aids for the Interpretation of Contingency Tables. 17. Statistical Control Table Analysis. Part VI: REGRESSION ANALYSIS. 18. Introduction to Regression Analysis. 19. The Assumptions of Linear Regression. 20. Time Series Analysis. 21. Multiple Regression. 22. Interrupted Time Series: Program and Policy Analysis. Part VII: SPECIAL TOPICS IN QUANTITATIVE MANAGEMENT. 23. Regression Output and Data Management. Part VII: SPECIAL TOPICS IN QUANTITATIVE MANAGEMENT. 24. Performance Measurement Techniques. 25. Decision Theory. 26. Linear Programming.

List of Symbols

xix

Preface

xxi

Part I Foundations of Quantitative Analysis

(54)

Chapter 1 Statistics and Public and Nonprofit Administration

(10)

The Advantages of a Statistical Approach

(2)

Statistics and Options for Managers

(1)

The Role of Calculation

(1)

NASPAA Standards for Professional Master's Degree Programs in Public Affairs, Policy, and Administration

(1)

A Road Map for This Book

(5)

Chapter 2 Measurement

(18)

Theory of Measurement

(1)

Measurement Validity

(2)

Measurement Reliability

(2)

Increasing Reliability

(1)

Measuring Reliability

(1)

Types of Measures

(1)

Levels of Measurement

(4)

The Implications of Selecting a Particular Level of Measurement

(2)

Chapter Summary

(1)

Problems

(4)

Chapter 3 Research Design

(24)

Constructing Causal Explanations

(5)

Causal Relationships

(3)

Research Design

(2)

Experimental Designs of Research

(5)

Internal Validity

(3)

External Validity

(2)

Quasi-Experimental Designs of Research

(3)

Internal Validity

(2)

External Validity

(1)

Research Designs and Validity

(1)

Chapter Summary

(1)

Problems

(3)

Part II Descriptive Statistics

(58)

Chapter 4 Frequency Distributions

(18)

Constructing a Frequency Distribution

(2)

The Percentage Distribution

(1)

Cumulative Frequency Distributions

(2)

Graphic Presentations

(6)

Chapter Summary

(1)

Problems

(5)

Chapter 5 Measures of Central Tendency

(24)

The Mean

(1)

The Median

(2)

The Mode

(2)

Means for Grouped Data

(3)

Medians for Grouped Data

(2)

Modes for Grouped Data

(1)

The Mean versus the Median

(1)

Levels of Measurement and Measures of Central Tendency

(4)

Hierarchy of Measurement

(1)

Some Cautions

(1)

Chapter Summary

(1)

Problems

(6)

Chapter 6 Measures of Dispersion

(14)

The Standard Deviation

100

(3)

Standard Deviations for Grouped Data

103

(2)

Shape of a Frequency Distribution

105

(3)

The Importance of Using Measures of Dispersion and Measures of Central Tendency Together

108

(1)

Chapter Summary

109

(1)

Problems

109

(4)

Part III Probability

113

(60)

Chapter 7 Introduction to Probability

115

(18)

Basic Concepts in Probability

115

(4)

An Application to Game Theory

119

(3)

Introduction to Probability Logic

122

(1)

General Rules of Probability

123

(5)

The General Rule of Addition

123

(3)

The General Rule of Multiplication

126

(2)

Chapter Summary

128

(1)

Problems

128

(5)

Chapter 8 The Normal Probability Distribution

133

(20)

Characteristics of the Normal Distribution

133

(3)

z Scores and the Normal Distribution Table

136

(4)

Applications to Public Management

140

(5)

A Measurement Technique Based on Standard Normal Scores

145

(3)

Chapter Summary

148

(1)

Problems

149

(4)

Chapter 9 The Binomial Probability Distribution

153

(12)

Binomial Probabilities

153

(6)

The Normal Curve and the Binomial Distribution

159

(1)

When to Use the Normal Curve

160

(1)

Chapter Summary

160

(1)

Problems

161

(4)

Chapter 10 Some Special Probability Distributions

165

(8)

The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

165

(2)

The Poisson Distribution

167

(3)

The Exponential Probability Distribution

170

(1)

Chapter Summary

170

(1)

Problems

170

(3)

Part IV Inferential Statistics

173

(62)

Chapter 11 Introduction to Inference

175

(14)

Some Definitions

176

(1)

Estimating a Population Mean

177

(1)

Estimating a Population Standard Deviation

178

(1)

The Standard Error

179

(1)

How Sample Size Affects the Standard Error

180

(1)

The t Distribution

181

(1)

An Example

182

(2)

Chapter Summary

184

(1)

Problems

185

(4)

Chapter 12 Hypothesis Testing

189

(20)

Steps in Hypothesis Testing

191

(1)

The Importance of Stating the Null and Alternative Hypotheses Correctly

192

(1)

Testing Hypotheses with Population Parameters

193

(1)

Hypothesis Testing with Samples

194

(2)

How Sure Should a Person Be?

196

(2)

One- and Two-Tailed Tests

198

(2)

Errors

200

(1)

Determining Sample Size

201

(2)

Chapter Summary

203

(1)

Problems

203

(3)

Answers to Sample Null and Research Hypotheses

206

(3)

Chapter 13 Estimating Population Proportions

209

(8)

Estimating a Population Proportion

209

(2)

Proportions

211

(1)

A Digression

212

(1)

Determining Sample Size

213

(1)

Decision Making

214

(1)

Chapter Summary

215

(1)

Problems

215

(2)

Chapter 14 Testing the Difference between Two Groups

217

(18)

Stating the Research and Null Hypotheses for Difference of Means Tests

217

(2)

Difference of Means Procedure

219

(2)

Understanding the Three Major Difference of Means Tests

221

(1)

t Test Assuming Independent Samples with Unequal Variances

222

(2)

t Test Assuming Independent Samples with Equal Variances

224

(2)

t Test Assuming Dependent Samples

226

(1)

Proportions

227

(2)

Chapter Summary

229

(1)

Problems

229

(6)

Part V Analysis of Nominal and Ordinal Data

235

(80)

Chapter 15 Construction and Analysis of Contingency Tables

237

(22)

Percentage Distributions

238

(5)

Steps in Percentaging

239

(1)

Displaying and Interpreting Percentage Distributions

240

(1)

Collapsing Percentage Distributions

241

(2)

Contingency Table Analysis

243

(7)

Constructing Contingency Tables

244

(2)

Relationships between Variables

246

(3)

Example: Automobile Maintenance in Berrysville

249

(1)

Larger Contingency Tables

250

(2)

Displaying Contingency Tables

252

(1)

Chapter Summary

253

(1)

Problems

254

(5)

Chapter 16 Aids for the Interpretation of Contingency Tables

259

(28)

The Chi-Square Test: Statistical Significance for Contingency Tables

260

(5)

Example: Incompetence in the Federal Government?

260

(4)

Limitations of the Chi-Square Test

264

(1)

Assessing the Strength of a Relationship

265

(4)

The Percentage Difference

265

(2)

Perfect and Null Relationships

267

(2)

Measures of Association

269

(4)

An Ordinal Measure of Association: Gamma

270

(3)

Other Ordinal Measures of Association: Kendall's tau-b and tau-c and Somers's dyx and dxy

273

(3)

A Nominal Measure of Association: Lambda

274

(2)

A Nominal Measure of Association Based on Chi-Square: Cramér's V

276

(6)

Use of Nominal Measures of Association with Ordinal Data

277

(1)

Measures of Association for Larger Tables

278

(4)

Chapter Summary

282

(1)

Problems

282

(5)

Chapter 17 Statistical Control Table Analysis

287

(28)

Controlling for a Third Variable

289

(16)

Example 1: Alcoholism in the Postal Service

The Effect of Hierarchical Position

289

(4)

Example 2: Performance on the Civil Service Examination

A Case of Favoritism in Blakely?

293

(5)

Example 2 1/2: Race, Education, and Complaints

A Developmental Sequence

298

(1)

Example 3: Guaranteed Annual Income

A Case of Interaction

298

(4)

Example 4: Support for Performance-Based Pay

Evidence of Joint Causation

302

(3)

Results and Implications of Control Table Analysis

305

(2)

Limitations of the Control Table Technique

307

(1)

Multivariate Relationships

307

(1)

The Source of Control Variables

307

(1)

Chapter Summary

308

(1)

Problems

308

(7)

Part VI Regression Analysis

315

(142)

Chapter 18 Introduction to Regression Analysis

317

(30)

Relationships between Variables

318

(4)

Ode to Eyeballing

322

(4)

Linear Regression

326

(3)

Some Applications

329

(1)

An Example

329

(2)

Measures of Goodness of Fit

331

(1)

The Standard Error of the Estimate

332

(2)

The Coefficient of Determination

334

(2)

The Standard Error of the Slope

336

(3)

Chapter Summary

339

(1)

Problems

339

(6)

Answer to Regression Problem

345

(2)

Chapter 19 The Assumptions of Linear Regression

347

(14)

Assumption 1

348

(1)

Assumption 2

349

(1)

Assumption 3

350

(1)

Assumption 4

350

(4)

Assumption 5

354

(3)

Chapter Summary

357

(1)

Problems

357

(4)

Chapter 20 Time Series Analysis

361

(24)

Introduction to Time Series

362

(3)

Forecasting without Fluctuation

365

(3)

Forecasting an Exponential Trend

368

(4)

Forecasting with a Short-Term Fluctuation

372

(3)

Bivariate Forecasting

375

(3)

Chapter Summary

378

(1)

Problems

379

(6)

Chapter 21 Multiple Regression

385

(30)

An Example

386

(4)

Calculating Partial Slopes

390

(1)

The Logic of Controls

391

(1)

A Spurious Relationship

391

(1)

A Specification

392

(1)

Dummy Variable Regression

392

(1)

Regression with Three Independent Variables

393

(2)

An Example

393

(2)

Calculating Regression Coefficients

395

(1)

Testing a Hypothesis

395

(1)

Two Additional Regression Assumptions

396

(5)

Assumption 1: Model is Specified Correctly

396

(3)

Assumption 2: Low Multicollinearity

399

(2)

Polynomial Curve Fitting

401

(5)

Quadratic Relationships

401

(2)

Cubic Regression

403

(3)

Chapter Summary

406

(1)

Problems

406

(9)

Chapter 22 Interrupted Time Series: Program and Policy Analysis

415

(20)

Short-Term Impacts

416

(3)

Long-Term Impacts

419

(3)

Both Short- and Long Term Effects

422

(3)

Pulse Effects

425

(1)

Some Considerations

426

(3)

Using Data to Represent Program Changes

429

(1)

Controlling for Other Variables

430

(1)

Chapter Summary

431

(1)

Problems

431

(4)

Chapter 23 Regression Output and Data Management

435

(22)

Bivariate Regression Output

435

(5)

Example 1

435

(3)

Example 2

438

(2)

Multiple Regression Output

440

(3)

Standardized Coefficients

441

(1)

The F Statistic

442

(1)

Time Series and Dummy Variable Regression Output

443

(3)

Coefficients

443

(3)

What to Report When Discussing Regression Output

446

(1)

Data Management Issues

447

(1)

Managing Variables

447

(1)

Missing Values

447

(1)

The Importance of Examining Descriptive Statistics Prior to Using More Advanced Statistical Techniques

448

(2)

The Range and Other Descriptive Statistics

449

(1)

The Importance of Plotting Data before Analysis

449

(1)

Chapter Summary

450

(1)

Problems

450

(7)

Part VII Special Topics in Quantitative Management

457

(62)

Chapter 24 Performance Measurement Techniques

459

(26)

Defining Inputs, Outputs, and Outcomes

460

(4)

Inputs

460

(1)

Outputs versus Outcomes

460

(2)

Inputs, Outputs, and Efficiency

462

(1)

Outcome Measures from External Sources

463

(1)

The Importance of Using Multiple Output and Outcome Measures

463

(1)

Techniques for Presenting Performance Data

464

(3)

Graphical Presentations

465

(2)

Trend Analysis

467

(8)

Benchmarking

475

(2)

Causality Issues in Explaining Performance

477

(1)

Chapter Summary

478

(1)

Problems

479

(6)

Chapter 25 Decision Theory

485

(24)

The Rational Decision-Making Model

485

(3)

A Brief Critique

488

(1)

Decision Making under Certainty

488

(1)

Decision Making under Risk

489

(4)

The Value of Perfect Information

493

(1)

Decision Making under Risk: Decision Trees

494

(2)

Decision Making under Uncertainty

496

(5)

Strategy 1: The Bayesian Approach

499

(1)

Strategy 2: The Insufficient Reason Approach

499

(1)

Strategy 3: The Maximin Principle

499

(1)

Strategy 4: Minimax Regret

500

(1)

Strategy 5: Maximax

501

(1)

How to Decide?

501

(1)

Game Theory

501

(4)

Zero-Sum Games

501

(2)

Positive-Sum Games

503

(1)

The Prisoner's Dilemma

503

(1)

A Final Comment

504

(1)

Chapter Summary

505

(1)

Problems

505

(4)

Chapter 26 Linear Programming

509

(10)

An Example

510

(5)

Linear Programming with More Than Two Variables

515

(1)

Chapter Summary

515

(1)

Problems

516

(3)

Annotated Bibliography

519

(6)

Statistical Tables

525

(10)

Glossary

535

(12)

Answers to Odd-Numbered Computational Problems

547

(23)

Index

570

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Applied Statistics for Public and Nonprofit Administration

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials