Applying Statistics in the Courtroom: A New

This publication is directed at both the attorney and the statistician to ensure they will successfully apply statistics in the law. The attorney will learn how best to utilize statistics while gaining an enriched understanding of the law on audits, jury selection, discrimination, environmental hazards, evidence, and torts as it relates to statistical issues. Statisticians will learn that the law is what judges say it is and to frame their arguments accordingly. Applying Statistics in the Courtroom: A New Approach for Attorneys and Expert Witnesses will increase the effectiveness of both the attorney and the statistician in presenting and attacking statistical arguments in the courtroom.

Phillip I. Good received his Ph.D. in Mathematical Statistics from the University of California at Berkeley

PART I: SAMPLES AND POPULATIONS

Samples and Populations

3

(14)

Audits

4

(4)

Validity of Using Sample Methods

5

(2)

Basis for Objection

7

(1)

Is the Sample Size Adequate?

8

(1)

Determining the Appropriate Population

8

(7)

Jury Panels

9

(1)

Criminal Universe

10

(1)

Trademarks

10

(2)

Discrimination

12

(3)

Downsizing

15

(1)

Summary

15

(2)

Representative Samples and Jury Selection

17

(12)

Concepts

17

(1)

Issues

17

(5)

Burden of Proof

18

(1)

The Right to be Eligible to Serve

19

(1)

Cognizable, Separate, Identifiable Groups

20

(1)

Voir Dire Rights of Litigants and Jurors

21

(1)

Composition of the Jury Pool

22

(3)

True Cross-Section

22

(1)

Snapshot in Time

23

(1)

Composition of the Individual Panel

23

(2)

Standing

25

(1)

Random Selection

25

(2)

Errors in Sampling Methodology

26

(1)

Summary

27

(1)

To Learn More

27

(2)

Sample and Survey Methodology

29

(12)

Concepts

29

(1)

Sampling Methodology

29

(5)

Cluster Sampling

31

(1)

The Fight over the Census

32

(2)

Inceasing Sample Reliability

34

(2)

Designing the Questionnaire

34

(1)

Data Integrity

35

(1)

How Much to Tell the Court

36

(1)

Missing Data and Nonresponders

37

(1)

Summary

38

(3)

Presenting Your Case

41

(12)

Concepts

41

(1)

The Center or Average

41

(3)

Extrapolating from the Mean

42

(1)

The Geometric Mean

42

(2)

The Mode

44

(1)

Measuring the Precision of a Sample Estimate

44

(4)

Standard Deviation

45

(1)

Bootstrap

46

(1)

Coefficient of Variation

47

(1)

Changes in Rates

48

(1)

Comparative versus Absolute Disparity

49

(1)

Summary

49

(4)

PART II: PROBABILITY

Probability Concepts

53

(10)

Equally Likely, Equally Frequent

53

(1)

Mutually Exclusive Events

54

(1)

Which Population?

54

(1)

Putting the Rules in Numeric Form

55

(1)

Conditional Probabilities

55

(2)

Negative Evidence

56

(1)

Independence

57

(3)

The Product Rule

58

(1)

DNA Matching

59

(1)

Sampling with and without Replacement

59

(1)

Bayes' Theorem

60

(1)

Summary

61

(1)

To Learn More

61

(2)

Criminal Law

63

(22)

Facts versus Probabilities

63

(6)

Exception to the Rule

67

(1)

Bayes' Theorem

67

(2)

Observations versus Guesstimates

69

(8)

Inconsistent Application

74

(2)

Middle Ground

76

(1)

Probable Cause

77

(1)

Sentencing

77

(7)

U.S. v. Shonubi

77

(4)

Statistical Arguments

81

(2)

Sampling Acceptable

83

(1)

Summary

84

(1)

To Learn More

84

(1)

Civil Law

85

(8)

The Civil Paradigm

85

(1)

Holdings

86

(5)

Exception for Joint Negligence

87

(1)

Exception for Expert Witnesses

87

(1)

Distinguishing Collins

88

(1)

Applying Bayes' Theorem

89

(2)

Speculative Gains and Losses

91

(1)

Summary

92

(1)

To Learn More

92

(1)

Environmental Hazards

93

(22)

Concepts

93

(1)

Is the Evidence Admissible?

94

(3)

Daubert

94

(2)

Role of the Trial Judge

96

(1)

Is the Evidence Sufficient?

97

(9)

SMR Defined

97

(2)

Sufficiency Defined

99

(1)

Strength and Consistency of Association

100

(1)

Dose-Response Relationship

101

(1)

Experimental Evidence

102

(1)

Plausibility

102

(1)

Coherence

102

(2)

Other Discussions of Sufficiency

104

(2)

Risk versus Probability

106

(2)

Competing Risks

108

(1)

Use of Models

108

(2)

Multiple Defendants

110

(2)

Summary

112

(3)

PART III: HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND ESTIMATION

How Large is Large?

115

(16)

Discrimination

116

(3)

Eight Is Not Enough

116

(1)

Timely Objection

117

(1)

Substantial Equivalence

117

(2)

Other Related Discrimination Opinions

119

(1)

The 80% Rule

119

(4)

Differential Pass and Promotion Rates

120

(1)

Sample versus Subsample Size

121

(2)

No Sample Too Small

123

(6)

Sensitivity Analysis

123

(2)

Statistical Significance

125

(1)

Collateral Evidence

126

(1)

Supreme Court Division

127

(2)

Summary

129

(2)

Methods of Analysis

131

(26)

Comparing Two Samples

131

(3)

A One-Sample Permutation Test

133

(1)

Permutation Tests and Their Assumptions

133

(1)

The Underlying Population

134

(3)

Distribution Theory

137

(6)

Binomial Distribution

138

(1)

Normal Distribution

138

(2)

Poisson Distribution: Events Rare in Time and Space

140

(1)

Exponential Distribution

141

(1)

Relationships among Distributions

141

(1)

Distribution-Free Statistics

142

(1)

Bad Choices

142

(1)

Contingency Tables

143

(11)

Which Test?

147

(3)

One Tail or Two?

150

(2)

The Chi-Square Statistic

152

(2)

Summary

154

(1)

To Learn More

155

(2)

Correlation

157

(18)

Correlation

157

(5)

Statistical Significance

158

(1)

Practical Significance

159

(1)

Absence of Correlation

159

(1)

Which Variables?

160

(1)

Consistency over the Range

161

(1)

Bias

162

(1)

Testing

162

(6)

Predictive Validity

162

(3)

Validating the Test

165

(3)

Linear Regression

168

(5)

Linear Regression Defined

168

(4)

Comparing Two Populations

172

(1)

Summary

173

(2)

Multiple Regression

175

(38)

Lost Earnings

176

(1)

Multiple Applications

177

(7)

Construction of the Database

179

(1)

Construction of the Equations

180

(2)

Application of the Equations

182

(1)

Determination of the Limitation

183

(1)

Collinearity and Partial Correlation

184

(2)

Defenses

186

(6)

Failure to Include Relevant Factors

187

(4)

Negligible Predictive Power

191

(1)

Validation

192

(1)

Rebuttal Decisions

192

(8)

Collateral Evidence

196

(1)

Omitted Variables

196

(4)

Alternate Forms of Regression Analysis

200

(3)

Cohort Analysis

201

(1)

Linear, Nonlinear, and Logistic Regression

201

(1)

Testing for Significance

202

(1)

When Statistics Don't Count

203

(6)

Age Discrimination

203

(3)

Gender Discrimination

206

(1)

Sentencing

206

(3)

Summary

209

(4)

PART IV: APPLYING STATISTICS IN THE COURTROOM

Preventive Statistics

213

(30)

Concepts

213

(1)

Appropriate Controls

213

(15)

Breast Implants

213

(2)

Basis for Comparison

215

(1)

Extent of Damages

216

(1)

Placebo Effect

217

(11)

Random Representative Samples

228

(1)

Power of a Test

229

(5)

Sample Size

230

(2)

Confidence Intervals

232

(2)

Coincidence and the Law of Small Numbers

234

(3)

Clustering

235

(1)

The Ballot Theorem and the Arc-Sine Law

236

(1)

Coincidence and Ad Hoc-Post Hoc Arguments

237

(1)

Reproducibility

237

(1)

Painting the Bull's Eye around the Bullet Holes

237

(1)

Data Mining or Searching for Significance

238

(1)

Bad Statistics

238

(4)

An Example from the National Game

239

(1)

Large Sample Approximations

240

(1)

Multiple Statistics, Multiple Conclusions

241

(1)

Counterattack

242

(1)

What Every Statistician Should Know about Courtroom Procedure

243

(6)

Selecting the Case

244

(1)

Prefiling

244

(1)

Discovery

245

(1)

Depositions

245

(2)

Post-Deposition, Pretrial Activities

247

(1)

In the Courtroom

247

(1)

Appeals

248

(1)

Summary

248

(1)

Making Effective Use of Statistics and Statisticians

249

(8)

Selecting a Statistician

249

(1)

Prefiling Preparation

250

(1)

Discovery

251

(4)

Questions

251

(3)

Depositions

254

(1)

Presentation of Evidence

255

(1)

Appeals

255

(1)

Summary

256

(1)

References

257

(6)

Table of Authorities

263

(10)

Index

273

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Applying Statistics in the Courtroom: A New Approach for Attorneys and Expert Witnesses

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials

FREE SHIPPING

Rent More, Save More! Use code: BBRENTAL

5% off 1 book, 7% off 2 books, 10% off 3+ books

Applying Statistics in the Courtroom: A New Approach for Attorneys and Expert Witnesses

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials

Digital License