Marcus Noland, senior fellow, was the senior economist for international economics at the Council of Economic Advisers (1993-94)
Preface
xi
Acknowledgments
xv
Introduction
1
(14)
Divergent Paths
3
(1)
Three Crises
4
(3)
Prospects for the Future
7
(4)
Tour de Horizon
11
(4)
The South Korean Economy until 1997
15
(44)
Economic Policy in the 1960s
16
(3)
Economic Policy in the 1970s
19
(3)
Economic Policy under President Chun
22
(2)
The Democracy Pledge and Twenty-five Years of Development
24
(5)
Pre-Crisis Economic Policy, 1987 to 1997
29
(28)
Conclusions
57
(2)
The North Korean Economy
59
(84)
Organization of the North Korean Economy
61
(12)
Statistical Comparison of the North and South Korean Economies
73
(9)
Crisis Response
82
(5)
International Economic Relations
87
(46)
Current Reforms
133
(7)
Conclusions
140
(3)
The Nuclear Confrontation
143
(28)
The Energy Situation
143
(2)
The Nuclear Program
145
(6)
The Agreed Framework
151
(7)
The Suspect Site and the Missile Test
158
(8)
Evaluation
166
(5)
The Slow-Motion Famine in the North
171
(24)
The Food Balance
180
(2)
Food for Peace
182
(9)
The People's Republic of Misery
191
(4)
The Financial Crisis in the South
195
(56)
Financial Frugality
199
(4)
The Bubble Story
203
(5)
The Crisis
208
(13)
Post-Crisis Developments
221
(26)
Recovery
247
(2)
Conclusions
249
(2)
The Prospect of Successful Reform in the North
251
(34)
Reform in the North
252
(14)
A General Equilibrium Perspective on Reform
266
(15)
The Likelihood of Reform
281
(4)
The Implications of North Korean Collapse
285
(38)
The German Experience
286
(9)
Relevance to Korea
295
(6)
A General Equilibrium Perspective on Collapse and Absorption
301
(6)
Conceptualizing the Costs and Benefits of Unification
307
(3)
Dynamic Results
310
(8)
Policy Lessons of the German Experience for South Korea
318
(2)
Thinking Beyond the German Case
320
(3)
Can the North Muddle Through?
323
(24)
Socialism in One Family
324
(9)
Muddling Through in Our Own Style
333
(9)
Sustainability
342
(5)
Conclusions
347
(30)
North Korea
348
(4)
South Korea
352
(15)
Other Actors
367
(8)
Final Thoughts
375
(2)
References
377
(24)
Appendix
401
(4)
Index
405
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