Beat the Market : Win with Proven Stock

'If you are wrong about the direction of the general market, then 3 out of 4 of your stocks will plummet with the market averages. You must have a reliable method to determine if you are in a bull or a bear market.'-William O'Neill, founder of Investor's Business Daily. You can clearly outperform 'buy and hold' stock market investment strategies. Leading investment expert Gerald Appel introduces those strategies, demonstrates how they've been proven successful through 25 years of historical performance, and shows you exactly how to use them. Using Appel's techniques, you'll learn how to forecast the likely direction of the market, and its relative strength compared with fixed income and other investments. In this new book, you'll learn how to identify when the wind's 'in your face,' and it's time to move your money out of equities. You'll also learn how to recognize a rising wind 'at your back,' when the odds of broad stock market increases are at their highest. When the market is likely headed up, Appel's techniques help you identify the specific mutual funds, exchange traded funds, and market sectors that are likely to be most profitable. Simply put, Appel gives you all the tools to gain the two pieces of information that are best correlated with superior performance: what you should be buying and selling, and when you should be buying and selling it.

Gerald Appel has, since 1973, published Systems and Forecasts, a leading technical analysis publication. He is legendary for his work in technical analysis and market timing, including the creation of Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), one of the field’s most valuable tools. His books include Opportunity Investing, Winning Market Systems, and Technical Analysis–Power Tools for Active Investors. His company, Signalert, with its affiliates, currently manages approximately $250,000,000 in private capital. He has trained thousands of traders through his renowned tapes, seminars, and workbooks.

Introduction	p. xix
Prologue	p. xxiii
Your Basic Investment Strategy	p. 1
The Best and Worst Mindsets for Profitable Investing	p. 3
Bond-Stock Valuation Models-A Key Market Forecasting Tool	p. 7
The Search for Something Simple, Useful, and Stable	p. 8
Bond-Stock Valuation Models	p. 9
Investments to Be Compared	p. 14
The General Concept of Bond-Stock Valuation Models	p. 15
Money Goes Where It Is Best Treated	p. 16
Interest Rate Relationships and Past Performance	p. 17
Further Observations	p. 23
Further Evidence	p. 23
Government Bond Yields Compared to Earnings Yields	p. 25
Implications of the Safety of Government Instruments	p. 25
Averaging Yields of Longer-Term Treasury Notes and Shorter-Term Treasury Bills	p. 26
Compare Earnings Yields from Stocks to Interest Yields, This Time from the Highest Grade of Government Income Issues	p. 27
Commentary	p. 31
Handling Money Management at Other Times	p. 31
Achieving a 92.59% Profit Ratio	p. 33
92.6% Reliability: Increasing Returns and Reducing Risk by Combining Your Two Bond-Stock Valuation Models	p. 36
The Basic Principles of the Double-Entry Bond-Stock Valuation Timing Model	p. 37
Condition #2	p. 40
Blended Performance (1981-2007)	p. 42
Periods with Lower Profit Potential	p. 44
A Signal to Stay Absolutely Clear of the Stock Market	p. 46
Summary	p. 48
How to Gauge the True Inner Pulse of the Stock Market	p. 49
The Significance of Breadth in the Stock Market	p. 50
Advance-Decline Indicators	p. 51
Required Data to Calculate Breadth Signals	p. 54
The Calculations Required for the Weekly Breadth Reading	p. 55
The Next Step-Creating a Six-Week Exponential Moving Average of Weekly Readings	p. 57
The First Step in Maintaining Exponential Averages: The Smoothing Constant	p. 60
Applying the Formula: First Example	p. 62
Calculating the Exponential Moving Average of the Weekly Breadth Reading	p. 64
Summing Up	p. 69
Buy and Sell Signals Generated by the Six-Week EMA of the Weekly Breadth Reading	p. 69
Final Review	p. 70
The Historical Performance Record of Breadth Signals	p. 72
Final Thoughts	p. 81
Indicator Synergy Plus	p. 83
Characteristics of TWIBBS	p. 83
Evaluating the Benefits of TWIBBS	p. 85
Final Thoughts	p. 88
A Stock Market Power Gauge	p. 88
Creating the Best Blends of Risk and Reward in Your Portfolio	p. 89
Analysis of Table 7.2: The Best Pockets of Investment Blends	p. 93
How the Timing Models Allow You to Take Greater Risks, While Maintaining a High Degree of Safety	p. 96
The Nest Is Empty-A Final Burst of Accumulation	p. 99
Retirement Period	p. 101
A Quick Review of the Features of All the Timing Models	p. 101
Putting Together Your Winning Investment Portfolio	p. 105
The First Step: Diversification	p. 105
How and Why Diversification Works	p. 107
How Diversification Performs Its Magic	p. 109
A High-Velocity Diversified Portfolio for Aggressive Investors	p. 111
Past Performance	p. 114
Summing Up	p. 119
A Primer for Profitable Mutual Fund Selection	p. 121
Open-Ended Mutual Funds: Professional Management, Ready Liquidity, Wide Choices, Popularity, But...	p. 121
All Buyers and Sellers Pay the Same Price Each Day	p. 123
Liquidity Has Been Broad and Flexible, But Not Without a Price	p. 124
Professional Management: Pros and Cons	p. 125
Tax Traps in Mutual Fund Investing	p. 127
Star Ratings... Another Booby Trap?	p. 128
Strategies for When to Play It Hot and When to Play It Cool	p. 129
Mutual Funds for All Seasons: Long-Term Consistency, Low Beta, Solid Management, Strong Performance/Risk Relationships	p. 131
Exchange-Traded Funds-An Alternative to the Traditional Mutual Fund	p. 135
Recommended Reading	p. 137
Internet Information	p. 137
Momentum Investing-Win by Going with the Flow	p. 139
Relative Strength Trading in Mutual Funds	p. 139
Monitoring, Selecting, and Maintaining Mutual Fund Portfolios with Superior Profit Potential and Risk Characteristics	p. 140
Performance of the Quarterly 10% Rebalancing Strategy over the Years	p. 142
Commentary	p. 145
Combining Mutual Fund Selection Strategies with Your Market Timing Models for the Best Risk/Reward	p. 147
How Relative Strength Investing May Be Affected by the Status of the Market Timing Models	p. 148
Commentary	p. 149
Creating and Maintaining "Killer ETF Portfolios" via Quarterly Relative Strength Rebalancing	p. 150
The Ten Style Boxes in Your Portfolio	p. 151
Performance of the Top-3 Investment Strategies	p. 153
Summing Up	p. 155
The Final Word	p. 157
First Step-Set Aside Investment Capital, Starting as Early as Possible and with as Much Capital as You Can Afford	p. 157
Second Step-Add to Your Investment Capital Consistently	p. 158
Epilogue	p. 163
Performance Histories: Five Timing Models	p. 167
Commentary	p. 173
The Weekly Stock Market Power Gauge	p. 173
Rules for Dealing with Combinations of Negative and Positive Numbers	p. 175
Related Websites	p. 176
Index	p. 177
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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Beat the Market : Win with Proven Stock Selection and Market Timing Tools

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