Beyond Crisis Achieving Renewal in a

The next decade will present organisational challenges on an unprecedented scale.

Gill Ringland is CEO and a Fellow of SAMI Consulting, which helps organisations make robust decisions in uncertain times. Previously, she was head of corporate strategy at ICL (now part of Fujitsu). She is the author of several highly-regarded books on scenarios including Scenarios in Business, Scenarios in Public Policy, Scenario Planning, and Scenarios in Marketing.

Oliver Sparrow directs the Challenge Network, a group of senior strategic consultants. He spent two decades with Shell, chiefly in strategic planning, public affairs and new ventures. He has also directed a public-private sector strategic partnership out of the Royal Institute of International Affairs. He is well known as a speaker and thinker on policy at national and international levels.

Patricia Lustig is a Visiting Executive Fellow at Henley Business School, where she specialises in leadership development, change management and organisational performance enhancement. She is also a member of the organisational development faculty at the CIPD, where she runs their scenario planning course. She previously worked as a Senior Organisational Development Adviser and Team Leader at BP and at Motorola.
All three authors are senior members of SAMI Consulting.

Preface	p. xiii
Acknowledgements	p. xvii
Introduction	p. 1
What Happened?	p. 13
A Short History of the Crisis	p. 15
The roots of the financial crisis	p. 15
The role of the financial sector	p. 18
Personal, corporate and government debt	p. 23
Executive Summary	p. 28
The New Operating Environment	p. 29
Demographics	p. 29
Economic development and social interactions	p. 32
Communications, science and technology	p. 39
Resource and other systemic challenges	p. 40
Executive Summary	p. 42
What Lies Ahead?	p. 43
The short term	p. 43
The medium term	p. 45
Longer-term scenarios	p. 51
Executive Summary	p. 57
What Organisations Can Do	p. 59
Organisational Design	p. 61
Aligned to the previous environment	p. 61
Dealing with the next decades	p. 67
Successful organisations in very challenging environments	p. 69
Executive Summary	p. 74
Renewal	p. 77
Measuring renewal	p. 77
Firms' self-perceived weaknesses	p. 80
Hurdles to innovation	p. 82
Foxes and Hedgehogs: their roles in renewal	p. 86
The double-cone: a framework for Foxes and Hedgehogs	p. 90
Executive Summary	p. 93
The Importance of Purpose	p. 95
Clarity of purpose	p. 95
Senior management and the Board	p. 96
Leadership	p. 98
Competence	p. 101
Setting a purpose	p. 103
Executive Summary	p. 106
Five Qualities for Renewal	p. 107
The journey and destination	p. 107
Values	p. 108
Narrative	p. 111
Insight	p. 115
Generating Options	p. 117
Machinery	p. 119
Executive Summary	p. 121
The Structure of Renewal	p. 123
Organisational change	p. 123
The Three Ring Circus	p. 124
Linking the Three Ring Circus	p. 128
Executive Summary	p. 132
Managing Renewal	p. 133
Getting going	p. 133
Evolution of a PS-RO	p. 137
Managing a PS-RO system	p. 139
What about the workers?	p. 141
The diagnostic tool	p. 144
Executive Summary	p. 145
A Toolkit for Purposeful Renewal	p. 147
Values	p. 149
Core Values	p. 150
The origins of Values	p. 155
Aligning your Values with a PS-RO	p. 157
Unlocking extraordinary competence	p. 162
Measuring behaviours	p. 166
Legacy	p. 173
Executive Summary	p. 173
Insight	p. 175
Scenarios as a source of Insight	p. 176
Relationship of Insight to the other PS-RO qualities	p. 177
Methods for developing Insight	p. 178
Horizon scanning	p. 179
Forecasting as part of Insight	p. 182
The scenario process	p. 186
Describing the organisation	p. 190
Audit of exposure to risks	p. 193
Practical aspects of gathering Insight	p. 202
Quantifying scenarios	p. 208
Insight and the Three Ring Circus	p. 209
Executive Summary	p. 212
Generating Options	p. 213
The Options journey	p. 215
Innovation	p. 218
Changing the portfolio	p. 228
Executive Summary	p. 235
Narrative	p. 237
What is a Narrative?	p. 239
The individual Narrative	p. 245
The organisational Narrative	p. 249
Developing organisational Narrative	p. 255
Executive Summary	p. 261
Machinery	p. 263
Renewal	p. 264
The formal planning system: the role of the Three Ring Circus	p. 265
Five interlocking parts in the Machinery	p. 273
The '95' organisation	p. 287
The '99' organisation	p. 289
Groups	p. 292
Executive Summary	p. 298
Conclusion: A Purposeful Self-Renewing Organisation	p. 299
Endnotes	p. 305
Index	p. 317
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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Beyond Crisis Achieving Renewal in a Turbulent World

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