Business Forecasting

, by Wilson, J. Holton; Keating, Barry

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ISBN: 9780256239560 | 0256239568
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 1/1/1998

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Supplemental Materials

1 Introduction to Business Forecasting

(42)

Introduction

(1)

Forecasting in Business Today

(4)

Forecasting in the Public and Not-for-Profit Sectors

(2)

Computer Use and Quantitative Forecasting

(1)

Subjective Forecasting Methods

(4)

New-Product Forecasting

(2)

Two Simple Naive Models

(4)

Evaluating Forecasts

(3)

Using Multiple Forecasts

(1)

Sources of Data

(1)

Forecasting Domestic Car Sales

(2)

Overview of the Text

(2)

Comments from the Field

(1)

Integrative Case: Forecasting Sales of The Gap

(5)

About the SORITEC Software

(7)

Suggested Readings

(1)

Exercises

(3)

2 The Forecast Process, Data Considerations, and Model Selection

(58)

Introduction

(1)

The Forecast Process

(3)

Trend, Seasonal, and Cyclical Data Patterns

(3)

Data Patterns and Model Selection

(1)

A Statistical Review

(22)

Correlograms: An Alternative Method of Data Exploration

(6)

Domestic Car Sales: Exploratory Data Analysis and Model Selection

(1)

Comments from the Field

(2)

Integrative Case: The Gap

(3)

Using SORITEC for Exploratory Data Analysis and Basic Statistics

(10)

Suggested Readings

(1)

Exercises

(3)

Appendix 2.1 Data Availability in ECONDATA.SDB

(4)

3 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing

101

(40)

Moving Averages

102

(3)

Simple Exponential Smoothing

105

(5)

Holt's Exponential Smoothing

110

(3)

Winters' Exponential Smoothing

113

(2)

Adaptive-Response-Rate Single Exponential Smoothing

115

(3)

Using Single, Holt's, or ADRES Smoothing to Forecast a Seasonal Data Series

118

(2)

Summary

120

(1)

Forecasting Domestic Car Sales with Exponential Smoothing

121

(3)

Integrative Case: The Gap

124

(3)

Using SORITEC for Moving-Average and Exponential Smoothing Forecasts

127

(10)

Suggested Readings

137

(1)

Exercises

138

(3)

4 Introduction to Forecasting with Regression Methods

141

(58)

The Bivariate Regression Model

141

(2)

Visualization of Data: An Important Step in Regression Analysis

143

(2)

A Process for Regression Forecasting

145

(1)

Forecasting with a Simple Linear Trend

146

(4)

Using a Causal Regression Model to Forecast

150

(1)

A Retail Sales Forecast Based on Disposable Personal Income Per Capita

151

(4)

A Retail Sales Forecast Based on the Mortgage Rate

155

(3)

Statistical Evaluation of Regression Models

158

(5)

Using the Standard Error of the Regression

163

(8)

Heteroscedasticity

171

(1)

Cross-Sectional Forecasting

172

(2)

Forecasting Domestic Car Sales with Bivariate Regression

174

(3)

Comments from the Field

177

(1)

Integrative Case: The Gap

178

(3)

Using SORITEC for Simple Regression Forecasts

181

(10)

Suggested Readings

191

(1)

Exercises

192

(7)

5 Forecasting with Multiple Regression

199

(60)

The Multiple-Regression Model

199

(1)

Selecting Independent Variables

200

(1)

Forecasting with a Multiple-Regression Model

201

(7)

Statistical Evaluation of Multiple-Regression Models

208

(6)

Serial Correlation and the Omitted-Variable Problem

214

(5)

Accounting for Seasonality in a Multiple-Regression Model

219

(6)

Extensions of the Multiple-Regression Model

225

(2)

Advice on Using Multiple Regression in Forecasting

227

(2)

Forecasting Domestic Car Sales with Multiple Regression

229

(5)

Comments from the Field

234

(5)

Integrative Case: The Gap

239

(3)

Using SORITEC for Multiple-Regression Forecasts

242

(10)

Suggested Readings

252

(1)

Exercises

252

(7)

6 Time-Series Decomposition

259

(40)

The Basic Time-Series Decomposition Model

261

(1)

Deseasonalizing the Data and Finding Seasonal Indexes

261

(6)

Finding the Long-Term Trend

267

(1)

Measuring the Cyclical Component

268

(6)

The Time-Series Decomposition Forecast

274

(3)

Forecasting Domestic Car Sales by Using Time-Series Decomposition

277

(2)

How to Evaluate and Improve a Forecasting Process

279

(1)

Forecasting Winter Daily Natural Gas Demand at Vermont Gas Systems

280

(1)

Integrative Case: The Gap

281

(5)

Using SORITEC for Time-Series Decomposition Forecasts

286

(6)

Suggested Readings

292

(1)

Exercises

293

(6)

7 ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) Type Forecasting Models

299

(72)

Introduction

299

(1)

The Philosophy of Box-Jenkins

300

(2)

Moving-Average Models

302

(5)

Autoregressive Models

307

(5)

Mixed Autoregressive and Moving-Average Models

312

(1)

Stationarity

313

(3)

The Box-Jenkins Identification Process

316

(7)

ARIMA: A Set of Numerical Examples

323

(12)

Forecasting Seasonal Time Series

335

(3)

Domestic Car Sales

338

(5)

Comments from the Field

343

(2)

Integrative Case: The Gap

345

(6)

Using SORITEC for ARIMA Analysis

351

(15)

Suggested Readings

366

(1)

Exercises

366

(3)

Appendix Critical Values of Chi-Square

369

(2)

8 Combining Forecast Results

371

(38)

Introduction

371

(1)

Bias

372

(1)

An Example

373

(4)

What Kinds of Forecasts Can Be Combined?

377

(1)

Considerations in Choosing the Weights for Combined Forecasts

378

(4)

Three Techniques for Selecting Weights When Combining Forecasts

382

(5)

Forecasting Domestic Car Sales with a Combined Forecast

387

(5)

Comments from the Field

392

(2)

Integrative Case: The Gap

394

(4)

Using SORITEC to Combine Forecasts

398

(4)

Suggested Readings

402

(1)

Exercises

403

(6)

9 Forecast Implementation

409

(18)

The Forecast Process

409

(6)

Choosing the Right Forecasting Techniques

415

(5)

Comments from the Field

420

(1)

Comments from the Field

421

(1)

Artificial Intelligence and Forecasting

422

(2)

Comments from the Field

424

(1)

Summary

424

(1)

Suggested Readings

425

(1)

Exercises

426

(1)

10 Computationally Intensive Statistics: The Bootstrap

427

(25)

Computationally Intensive Statistical Techniques

427

(2)

The Bootstrap

429

(2)

Steps in the Bootstrapping Process

431

(3)

Extensions of the Bootstrap Technique

434

(5)

Bootstrapping Time-Series Data

439

(5)

Conclusion

444

(1)

Using SORITEC for Bootstrapping

445

(4)

Suggested Readings

449

(1)

Exercises

449

(3)

Appendix User's Guide to BEA Information

452

(34)

Index

486

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Business Forecasting

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials