Business Forecasting

, by Hanke, John E.; Reitsch, Arthur G.; Wichern, Dean W.

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ISBN: 9780130878106 | 0130878103
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 1/1/2001

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For undergraduate and graduate courses in Business Forecasting, found in Decision Science and Economic departments. This best-selling text continues to be written in a simple, straightforward style and to make extensive use of practical business examples. Many exercises and forty-four cases are included to provide the link between theoretical concepts and their real-world applications. Statistical packages (Excel and Minitab) are referenced throughout.

Preface

xiii

Introduction to Forecasting

(12)

History of Forecasting

(1)

Need for Forecasting

(2)

Types of Forecasts

(1)

Macroeconomic Forecasting

(1)

Choosing a Forecasting Method

(1)

Forecasting Steps

(2)

Managing the Forecasting Process

(1)

Computer Forecasting Packages

(1)

Forecasting Example

(1)

Summary

(1)

Mr. Tux

(1)

Consumer Credit Counseling

(1)

Minitab Applications

(1)

Excel Applications

(1)

References and Selected Bibliography

(1)

A Review of Basic Statistical Concepts

(40)

Describing Data with Numerical Summaries

(4)

Displays of Numerical Information

(3)

Probability Distributions

(3)

Sampling Distributions

(2)

Inference from a Sample

(4)

Estimation

(1)

Hypothesis Testing

(3)

Correlation Analysis

(5)

Scatter Diagrams

(3)

Correlation Coefficient

(2)

Fitting a Straight Line

(4)

Assessing Normality

(1)

Application to Management

(1)

Glossary

(1)

Key Formulas

(1)

Problems

(5)

Alcam Electronics

(1)

Mr. Tux

(1)

Alomega Food Stores

(1)

Minitab Applications

(2)

Excel Applications

(1)

References and Selected Bibliography

(1)

Exploring Data Patterns and Choosing a Forecasting Technique

(42)

Exploring Time Series Data Patterns

(2)

Exploring Data Patterns with Autocorrelation Analysis

(13)

Are the Data Random?

(1)

Do the Data Have a Trend?

(6)

Are the Data Seasonal?

(1)

Choosing a Forecasting Technique

(5)

Forecasting Techniques for Stationary Data

(1)

Forecasting Techniques for Data with a Trend

(1)

Forecasting Techniques for Data with Seasonality

(1)

Forecasting Techniques for Cyclical Series

(1)

Other Factors to Consider When Choosing a Forecasting Technique

(1)

Empirical Evaluation of Forecasting Methods

(1)

Measuring Forecasting Error

(3)

Determining the Adequacy of a Forecasting Technique

(1)

Application to Management

(1)

Glossary

(1)

Key Formulas

(1)

Problems

(4)

Murphy Brothers Furniture

(2)

Mr. Tux

(1)

Consumer Credit Counseling

(1)

Alomega Food Stores

(1)

Minitab Applications

(2)

Excel Applications

(2)

References and Selected Bibliography

(2)

Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods

(48)

Naive Models

(3)

Forecasting Methods Based on Averaging

(8)

Simple Averages

(2)

Moving Averages

101

(3)

Double Moving Averages

104

(3)

Exponential Smoothing Methods

107

(16)

Exponential Smoothing Adjusted for Trend: Holt's Method

114

(3)

Exponential Smoothing Adjusted for Trend and Seasonal Variation: Winters' Method

117

(6)

Application to Management

123

(1)

Glossary

124

(1)

Key Formulas

124

(2)

Problems

126

(5)

The Solar Alternative Company

131

(1)

Mr. Tux

132

(1)

Consumer Credit Counseling

133

(1)

Five-Year Revenue Projection for Downtown Radiology

133

(6)

Minitab Applications

139

(2)

Excel Applications

141

(1)

References and Selected Bibliography

142

(1)

Time Series and Their Components

143

(50)

Decomposition

144

(3)

Trend

147

(6)

Additional Trend Curves

150

(3)

Forecasting Trend

153

(1)

Seasonality

153

(5)

Seasonally Adjusted Data

158

(1)

Cyclical and Irregular Variations

158

(6)

Forecasting a Seasonal Time Series

164

(1)

The Census II Decomposition Method

165

(2)

Application to Management

167

(1)

Appendix: Price Index

168

(2)

Glossary

170

(1)

Key Formulas

170

(1)

Problems

171

(7)

The Small Engine Doctor

178

(1)

Mr. Tux

179

(4)

Consumer Credit Counseling

183

(1)

AAA Washington

183

(2)

Alomega Food Stores

185

(2)

Minitab Applications

187

(2)

Excel Applications

189

(3)

References and Selected Bibliography

192

(1)

Simple Linear Regression

193

(48)

Regression Line

193

(5)

Standard Error of the Estimate

198

(1)

Forecasting Y

199

(3)

Decomposition of Variance

202

(3)

Coefficient of Determination

205

(3)

Hypothesis Testing

208

(2)

Analysis of Residuals

210

(3)

Computer Output

213

(2)

Variable Transformations

215

(4)

Application to Management

219

(2)

Glossary

221

(1)

Key Formulas

221

(1)

Problems

222

(9)

Tiger Transport

231

(1)

Butcher Products, Inc.

232

(2)

Ace Manufacturing

234

(1)

Mr. Tux

235

(1)

Consumer Credit Counseling

235

(1)

Minitab Applications

236

(2)

Excel Applications

238

(2)

References and Selected Bibliography

240

(1)

Multiple Regression Analysis

241

(53)

Several Predictor Variables

241

(1)

Correlation Matrix

242

(1)

Multiple Regression Model

243

(2)

Statistical Model for Multiple Regression

244

(1)

Interpreting Regression Coefficients

245

(1)

Inference for Multiple Regression Models

246

(5)

Standard Error of the Estimate

247

(1)

Significance of the Regression

248

(2)

Individual Predictor Variable

250

(1)

Forecast of a Future Response

251

(1)

Computer Output

251

(1)

Dummy Variables

252

(4)

Multicollinearity

256

(3)

Selecting the ``Best'' Regression Equation

259

(7)

All Possible Regressions

261

(2)

Stepwise Regression

263

(3)

Final Notes on Stepwise Regression

266

(1)

Regression Diagnostics and Residual Analysis

266

(2)

Forecasting Caveats

268

(1)

Overfitting

268

(1)

Useful Regressions, Large F Ratios

269

(1)

Application to Management

269

(2)

Glossary

271

(1)

Key Formulas

271

(1)

Problems

272

(8)

The Bond Market

280

(2)

Fantasy Baseball (A)

282

(6)

Fantasy Baseball (B)

288

(3)

Minitab Applications

291

(1)

Excel Applications

292

(1)

References and Selected Bibliography

293

(1)

Regression with Time Series Data

294

(52)

Time Series Data and the Problem of Autocorrelation

294

(4)

Durbin-Watson Test for Serial Correlation

298

(3)

Solutions to Autocorrelation Problems

301

(12)

Model Specification Error (Omitting a Variable)

302

(2)

Regression with Differences

304

(5)

Generalized Differences and an Iterative Approach

309

(3)

Autoregressive Models

312

(1)

Time Series Data and the Problem of Heteroscedasticity

313

(3)

Using Regression to Forecast Seasonal Data

316

(3)

Econometric Forecasting

319

(1)

Application to Management

320

(1)

Glossary

320

(1)

Key Formulas

320

(2)

Problems

322

(7)

Company of Your Choice

329

(1)

Business Activity Index for Spokane County

329

(4)

Restaurant Sales

333

(2)

Mr. Tux

335

(2)

Consumer Credit Counseling

337

(2)

AAA Washington

339

(2)

Alomega Food Stores

341

(1)

Minitab Applications

342

(1)

Excel Applications

343

(2)

References and Selected Bibliography

345

(1)

The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology

346

(75)

Box-Jenkins Methodology

346

(8)

Autoregressive Models

351

(1)

Moving Average Models

352

(2)

Autoregressive Moving Average Models

354

(1)

Summary

354

(1)

Implementing the Model-Building Strategy

354

(23)

Model Identification

354

(2)

Model Estimation

356

(1)

Model Checking

357

(1)

Forecasting with the Model

358

(19)

Final Comments

377

(1)

Model Selection Criteria

377

(2)

Models for Seasonal Data

379

(12)

Simple Exponential Smoothing and an ARIMA Model

391

(1)

Advantages and Disadvantages of ARIMA Models

391

(1)

Application to Management

392

(1)

Glossary

393

(1)

Key Formulas

393

(1)

Problems

394

(10)

Restaurant Sales

404

(1)

Mr. Tux

405

(2)

Consumer Credit Counseling

407

(1)

The Lydia E. Pinkham Medicine Company

407

(3)

City of College Station

410

(3)

UPS Air Finance Division

413

(3)

Minitab Applications

416

(2)

Excel Applications

418

(1)

References and Selected Bibliography

419

(2)

Judgmental Elements in Forecasting

421

(17)

Growth Curves

422

(2)

The Delphi Method

424

(1)

Scenario Writing

425

(1)

Combining Forecasts

426

(1)

Forecasting and Neural Networks

427

(2)

Summary of Judgmental Forecasting

429

(1)

Other Techniques Useful in Forecasting

430

(3)

Key Formulas

433

(1)

Golden Gardens Restaurant

434

(1)

The Lydia E. Pinkham Medicine Company Revisited

434

(3)

References and Selected Bibliography

437

(1)

Managing the Forecasting Process

438

(19)

The Forecasting Process

438

(1)

Monitoring Forecasts

439

(4)

Forecasting Steps Reviewed

443

(1)

Forecasting Responsibility

444

(1)

Forecasting Costs

445

(1)

Forecasting and the MIS System

445

(1)

Selling Management on Forecasting

446

(1)

The Future of Forecasting

446

(1)

Boundary Electronics

447

(1)

Busby Associates

447

(4)

Consumer Credit Counseling

451

(1)

Mr. Tux

452

(1)

Alomega Food Stores

453

(1)

References and Selected Bibliography

454

(3)

Appendix A Derivations

457

(2)

Appendix B Data for Case Study 7.1

459

(2)

Appendix C Tables

461

(11)

Appendix D Data Sets and Databases

472

(21)

Index

493

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Business Forecasting

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials