The Challenge of Biological Terrorism

Bioterrorism poses a threat that is all too real, but the risk is only one among many. The years since 9/11 have shown that it is far easier to throw money at a problem than it is to solve one; priorities have to be made. With this study, Anthony Cordesman seeks to provide just such an assessment of biological terrorism--balancing threats, probabilities, costs, and priorities.

Anthony H. Cordesman Holds the Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS and serves as a national security analyst for ABC News. He has held a variety of government positions. He is the author of over 20 books.

Preface

ix

I. WHEN TO CRY ``WOLF''

1

(46)

Problem of Risk Assessments

3

(44)

Little Transparency and Uncertain Pattern Analysis

5

(6)

Failure of U.S. Department of State Reports

6

(3)

Reform of Reporting Needed

9

(2)

Threat Analysis Based on History

11

(13)

Cases from the Sixth Century B.C. to A.D. 2000

12

(5)

2001: Amerithrax Odyssey

17

(5)

Incidents after September 11, 2001

22

(2)

The Islamist Extremist Threat as a Case Study

24

(14)

Words and Actions of Islamic Extremism

24

(7)

CIA View of the Al Qaeda Threat

31

(4)

Presidential Commission on Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction

35

(1)

Other Views

36

(2)

Capability-Based Threat Analysis

38

(2)

Key Challenges for Action: Improve Incident and Scenario Analysis and the Tracking of Terrorists

40

(7)

II. WHAT TO CRY

47

(72)

Problem of Intelligence

49

(6)

Critical Problems Even in Superpower Intelligence

49

(3)

Key Challenges for Action: Improving Intelligence

52

(3)

Problem of Low-Level Biological Attack

55

(14)

Low-Level Attacks Most Likely

56

(6)

Challenges Nonstate Actors Face

57

(3)

Prospects for Bioterrorism in Near Future

60

(2)

Key Challenges for Action: Improve Response to Low-Level Attack

62

(7)

Uncertainties of High-Level Biological Attack

69

(50)

Lethality and Medical Impact

70

(13)

Anthrax

71

(3)

Smallpox

74

(2)

Plague

76

(2)

Other Human Lethality Issues

78

(3)

Beyond Single-Disease Lethality and Medical Effects

81

(1)

Impacts Other than Direct Medical Effects

82

(1)

Threats to Livestock and Agriculture

83

(2)

Manufacture, Weaponization, and Dissemination

85

(17)

Soviet Manufacture, Weaponization, and Lethality

86

(3)

Dissemination of Necessary Equipment and Technology

89

(2)

Dual-Use Technology

91

(3)

Dual-Use Research

94

(2)

Options for Control of Dual-Use Technology: United States as a Case Study

96

(3)

Controlling the Flow of Scientific Expertise

99

(1)

Other Issues of Technology and Weaponization

100

(2)

Technological Change and the ``12 Monkey'' Problem

102

(6)

Key Challenges for Action: Improving the Response to High-Level Attack

108

(11)

III. HOW TO CRY ``WOLF''

119

(34)

Resources and Levels of Effort

121

(20)

The Prudent Minimum

121

(3)

Prudent Minimalism or Inglorious Excess: United States as a Case Study

124

(8)

Estimates of the U.S. Effort

124

(6)

Administrative Reorganization

130

(2)

Programs of Detection

132

(5)

Key Challenges for Action: Finding the Golden Mean

137

(4)

Threat from Man vs. Threat from Nature

141

(12)

Threat from Man, Seen by Scientists

141

(3)

Threat from Nature, Seen by the National Intelligence Council

144

(4)

Threat from Nature, Seen by the WHO

148

(2)

Key Challenges for Action: Integrating Bioterrorism and Public Health Initiatives

150

(3)

IV. WHEN TO CRY ``WOLF,'' WHAT TO CRY, AND HOW TO CRY

153

(20)

Challenge of International Cooperation

155

(18)

Transparency in the Real World

155

(1)

Current International Initiatives: Reality or Rhetoric?

156

(8)

Key Challenges for Action: Strengthening International Cooperation

164

(9)

Appendix A -- Planning Scenarios

173

(10)

Scenario 2: Biological Attack --- Aerosol Anthrax

173

(3)

Scenario 4: Biological Attack --- Plague

176

(3)

Scenario 13: Biological Attack --- Food Contamination

179

(4)

Appendix B -- Biodefense for the 21st Century

183

(12)

Appendix C -- Pandemic Influenza

195

(4)

Appendix D -- Supporting Material Attached to Scientists' Letter to Director of NIH

199

(8)

About the Author

207

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The Challenge of Biological Terrorism

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials